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Simplicius The Thinker

Simplicius The Thinker
23 Jul 2024 | 3:39 am

1. Extraordinary Events Taking Place in America


There's something rotten in Denmark.

The beltway is abuzz with some of the wildest rumors imaginable. 'Is Joe Biden even alive?' is whispered through the storied halls of the capitol.

The unelected despot-in-chief seemingly renounced his election campaign via suspicious Twitter note on a lazy Sunday afternoon, after which he hasn't been seen or heard from since. Many are now pointing out the strange idiosyncrasies surrounding the unprecedented event, including the lack of letterhead or that Biden's signature appeared to be doctored:

Recall that Pelosi had recently remarked Biden's forced exit would be done either the easy way, or the hard way:

They even fired off this ad as warning shot against their imposter-in-chief:

Now there are all kinds of rumors about Biden's health, including that he may have had two 'secret' medical episodes recently, which were hidden from the public—and that's not counting the likely phony 'Covid' diagnosis.

Most shocking was the fact that even Biden's closest aides didn't learn of his announcement of withdrawal until after the fact, and from social media at that. Furthermore, everything in-house has been managed by Jeff Zients:

Some may recall he's the White House Chief of Staff who was fingered as "the second most powerful man in Washington" and secret shadow hand, by a White House insider recorded undercover by James O'Keefe's crew:

Now there are all sorts of rumors flying:

Todd Starnes:

Something smells.

Why would President Biden announce such a momentous and historic decision on a Sunday afternoon on a social media platform? The letter he posted was not written on White House stationary. And his signature appeared to be photoshopped. Also, Biden's signature was underlined and typically he does not underline his name.

His staff only found out once the message had been posted on X. And Cabinet members were notified by the Chief of Staff -- not Biden.

The last time the public saw Biden he feebly walked down the stairs of Air Force One and had to be physically assisted into the presidential limo. He has not been seen in public since.

How do we know Biden wrote that letter? And how do we know that Biden posted the letter on his X page? There wasn't even an official White House photograph of the moment.

His brother, Frank Biden, told CBS News that health "absolutely" was the deciding factor in the decision. And then he told CBS "Selfishly, I will have him back to enjoy whatever time he has left."

Is President Biden still alive? Is he awake and alert? Is he in command of his faculties? With respect, we need to see proof of life.

It's clear there is far more going on under the hood than meets the eye.

Firstly, it all ties into the Trump assassination attempt and ongoing Congressional testimony of Director of Secret Service Kimberly Cheatle. The testimony has revealed there are likely a lot of things being hidden from the public about the would-be assassin Thomas Crooks and his potential dealings with the FBI.

Tellingly, Cheatle refused to answer if Crooks was "acting alone":

An investigation by Heritage foundation showed that a digital device visiting Crooks' home multiple times has been geo-located to the vicinity of an FBI office in Washington DC in late June.

The regime is being laid bare before our eyes. What are the chances that literally only a week or two after the failed assassination of his chief rival, the "most popular president in history" (80+ million votes!) unceremoniously drops out—and now there's even talk of an imminent resignation from the presidency. Things are off the Richter scale of uncanniness.

I said before: we're in uncharted territory.

Firstly, it must be said that the ensuing circumstances after the Trump shooting were bizarre and unprecedented: neither the FBI, DOJ, nor DHS even held an official press conference about the shooting. There were no loud bipartisan calls for investigation, or uproar in general; things simply went on as before, quietly settling down before being swept under the rug. The Democrats bided their time and even gradually rolled out conspiracy theories claiming Trump had staged the shooting.

The proceedings reeked of massive coverup as the FBI continued to stonewall all inquiries, denying FOIA requests, with Secret Service head Cheatle perjuring herself in front of Congress by refusing to answer key questions, including: how many shell casings were recovered on the roof by the shooter's body? She said she knows, but can't say—how convenient, as it would immediately determine the presence of a second shooter, given that we have expert audio analysis of each fired shot. Alternately, it could simply point to incompetence—deliberate or not—as it would confirm the vast amount of shots the shooter was 'allowed' to fire off before initiating a response.

This included the unprecedented CrowdStrike global 'system failure', which was clearly no 'coincidence'. Most likely, the event was used to wipe FBI servers of complicity in the Trump hit, particularly since CrowdStrike has powerful links to the FBI—the company's Chief Security Officer and President of Services is retired FBI Executive Assistant Director Shawn Henry:

Now it's been admitted that Biden's 'Counselor' Steve Ricchetti was the one that "helped the president with the tweet"—i.e. wrote the fateful election drop-out tweet for Biden.

Ongoing events have peeled back the veil on the inner workings of the deep state, giving us an indepth glimpse of just how little "democracy" there is to be found in the lurid bowels of America. The DNC forewent any real democratic nomination process in the primaries this year, using various tricks to keep real candidates off the ballot or suppressed, as in the case of Kennedy, such as anomalously not allowing debates. This effectively took the 'democratic' process of nominating a candidate out of the public's hands and strictly into the cartel-like mechanism of the DNC, which in effect chooses the candidate themselves. This is particularly the case given that the DNC delegate system itself is an intentionally Byzantine webwork of lobbyists and corporate interests.

This is the same tried and true tactic used previously when Bernie Sanders was sabotaged out of the primaries; the fraudulent political parties merely appoint whomever they want as candidate, with assistance from the bought-and-paid-for regime media, which is able to suppress any candidate in a number of ways: such as simply giving them no air time, or most notably, using arcane rules to exclude the candidate from CNN-sponsored televised debates, as in the case of Kennedy.

More info on how it all works:

Lee Fang How Lobbyists Could Select the Democratic Presidential Nominee President Joe Biden mumbled and lost his train of thought at times during the first debate last night. His stumbling performance sent shockwaves through the party establishment and cemented months of concern about the president's cognitive ability. Democratic pundits on… Read more 25 days ago · 225 likes · 46 comments · Lee Fang

Also, recall how Biden was effectively couped by his donor class, which simply cut off funding, proving who has the true last say in American elections.

Is this really what the Founding Fathers envisioned as a thriving 'Democracy'?

Of course this is an age old process, we've just never been witness to it in so unvarnished a manner. Even WaPo was forced to gag at the un-democratic nature of it all, and in a new piece today pushed for a return to a more elective rather than selective process for next month's national convention:

The problem seems to be the elites are revolting, and AOC has claimed that behind the scenes they're not happy with Harris as the pick:

It's quite interesting, the language she chooses. They are interested not only in 'removing the president', but 'removing the whole ticket'—irrevocable proof that we're witnessing an ongoing coup.

But if the Democrat elites don't want Kamala, then who is it even pushing her to begin with? It's hard to say, though there's whispers that she's the in-house Clinton family pick, while the Obama family—Dons of the Chicago political mafia—are against her, evidenced by the fact that Barrack's only official message thus far prominently omitted mentioning Kamala and instead stated he looks forward to a newly chosen Democratic candidate.

In short, that would make it a House Clinton vs. House Obama internecine war.

Someone said today that this coming election will infact be the first since 1976 to not feature a dynastic Bush, Clinton, or Biden somewhere on the ticket; the only quibble is that in '76 Bush was not the final VP nominee, but was a candidate at the Republican National Convention—though he did officially run in '80.

All in all, we're witnessing extraordinary events taking place at extraordinary speeds, packaged in a veneer of 'normality' so as to keep us from lifting our snouts from the animal farm trough. Circumstances that once happened every few decades are now occurring days and weeks apart. We've had a president be shot, only to be eclipsed by the first presidential withdrawal from reelection since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968; and the fun's not even over yet—speculation is now strong that Biden will end up outright resigning, particularly as that would give the unpopular Kamala the best chance at beating Trump, by wrapping her in a cloak of validation from having served a few months as acting president.

As of this writing, one of the most bizarre things I've seen has taken place: Kamala, landing in her Delaware campaign HQ, did a press conference from which she spoke with a disembodied 'Biden' over the phone—the same Biden who's supposed to be somewhere in Delaware himself, but has not been seen in person or public in five whole days.

Oddly, Kamala almost slips up and calls Biden's voice a recording, before quickly catching herself and saying phone "call". Watch for yourself:

And here's a second, longer video of Biden calling in to the HQ, offering his first 'live' words since yesterday's baffling withdrawal.

Meanwhile, regime media and its many shills and apparatchiks are already doing a cleanup job on Biden's historically disastrous presidency:

I can only repeat, be prepared for events to continue spiraling into unexpected vectors as it's clear that even the elites are undergoing a major crisis amongst themselves, with no clear concensus on a workable path forward. Their only real option may be to target Trump again, as winning the election 'fairly' is at this point a nonstarter.

For now, all eyes are on Kamala's VP picks, the pool of which allegedly includes such marquee headliners as Gavin Newsome, Pete Buttigieg, and JB Pritzker:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/22/politics/vp-shortlist-kamala-harris/index.html

Things are only going to get more interesting from here. And might I mention how fitting it is that the Biden regime's late-hour collapse is being so perfectly mirrored by his Ukrainian project:

Remember, it was Soros himself who said that no man has been more committed to the Ukrainian scheme than Biden.

Of course, none of this comes as a surprise, and in fact some of our earliest predictions here from last year were that the Biden admin would try to dump Ukraine before the election if it could not generate any battlefield success for this very reason: that Ukraine's devastating defeat would pose one of the gravest threats to Biden's reelection chances, tarnishing his legacy. And what do you know, Biden's sagging popularity has tracked accordingly with Ukraine's slowly-diminishing battlefield prospects to become an inextricably fatal thorn in his hairy blond backside.

Now with fates entwined, like ancient star-crossed lovers, hand-in-hand they sink together into the grave of their own making.

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Simplicius The Thinker
22 Jul 2024 | 6:00 am

2. Subscriber Mailbag - Your Questions (7/21/24)


We haven't done a mailbag in a while, as the growing readership simply made the sheer amount of questions too overwhelming to answer in full. But you can thank reader The Moose for giving me an idea for a new bicameral version that we'll test out.

I've researched how other accounts with large followings handle mailbags: some pick the top few most popular/upvoted questions, others pick random questions they prefer to answer, and others still just quickly answer the questions in the comments section as a direct response. I've decided a combination of all three is the most efficiently workable and could give a chance for everyone to get their voices heard.

So here's what I'll do: First, I'll take the 5 questions with the most "likes" to answer in the usual longer format. Then I'll pick another additional 5 on my own—just based on what I believe to be most noteworthy, interesting, or pertinent to current events, or whose answers could be most illuminating to the readership. So this will be 10 total longer format answers.

But then, I will also answer the remainder of the questions directly in the comments section—however, they will be quick answers that may be as short as a sentence or two. But at least everyone is guaranteed to have their question answered in one way or another.

If this new format works, then we could potentially bring back the mailbag as a regular addition again.

For newer readers just joining us, a reminder of the rules:

The mailbag is my perk for paid subscribers, so if you'd like to ask a question, you'll have to sign up to a monthly or yearly paid pledge here as the comments section will be paywalled on this article:

Subscribe Now

  • Please remember to ask only one question per person, otherwise I'll be forced to choose.

  • I don't mind topics that may seem unrelated or random, but for the longer format 5 that I choose to answer, I may favor questions more relevant to ongoing global events.

  • Since people have wasted their questions on this before: I won't answer personal questions about myself.

  • Remember to Like the question(s) you'd personally like to see answered, especially if you don't ask one yourself. The 5 questions with the most "likes" will be chosen first. Ties for 5th place will be settled at random—or I'll choose which to answer arbitrarily.

  • I know sometimes the mailbag comments section breaks out into discussions that have their own separate long-running comments threads. Eligible questions must be only for the main comment—anything asked in the threads will be ignored as that just gets too complicated. If you want to ask an eligible question, please submit it as its own standalone comment and don't reply it into a thread.

  • To those questions I'll be answering directly in the comments, please note this will happen after a few days, since I'll have to first allow the 'votes' to accumulate and see which questions get chosen for the longer format.

  • I'll probably give it 2-3 days and then tally up the likes and begin answering them.

In case I'm not able to get the comments sorted by likes/popularity (it's a little complicated in Substack), you can manually sort them by finding this pulldown menu at the top of the comments section and clicking "top first":

Lastly, since these informal transmissions are perfect for small updates, there's one thing I wanted to mention:

It's just a heads up that I will be rolling out some potential redesigns and branding updates to the newsletter soon. It's nothing too major or anything that will affect the content, but simply a sprucing up to refine things a bit. It likely won't be drastic but may include new headers, logo(s), a rewritten "about" section, etc. The biggest change may simply be a name change to the newsletter space, currently presented as Garden of Knowledge, which was always meant to be a temporary stand-in I dashed off and didn't give much thought to. I'd prefer it to be something a little more meaningful as regards the actual content here. This is particularly the case since we've been moving up the rankings at the leaderboard, and all the other big ticket accounts have snazzy, well-defined brand presentations.

But I mention this only so that you don't get worried and think that the newsletter is veering off in some unannounced direction or something like that, if you happen to see some changes soon. The content will remain the same, but we'll merely throw on a fresh coat of paint on the peeling facade.

So, without further ado, let's have your questions—and remember: hit "Like" for your favorites which you'd like to see answered.

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Simplicius The Thinker
20 Jul 2024 | 5:56 am

3. SITREP 7/19/24: West Searches for New Deflection in Russian "Barrel Crisis"


Last time I debunked the new narrative being trotted out about mass Russian casualties, all to deflect from Ukraine's own progressing collapse. Now this narrative has shifted lanes to the loss of Russian equipment, with a coordinated effort from pro-Western media to depict the Russian military as running out of tanks, artillery barrels, and armor altogether—not to mention the tired retread of the 'low ammo' trope.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/17/7466120/

To some extent, I think there is some truth to Russia's tank and armor woes, merely in that I don't think Russia yet produces as many brand new tanks as most people on the pro-Russian side think. Yes, there are figures of 1000-1500 per year tank production floating around, but the vast majority of that is likely refurbished tanks, which do have a finite limit. It's questionable how many actual brand new ones they're building, with lowest base floor estimates at around 200-250 per year.

Reportedly, the only new tank Russia now produces is T-90M, with both T-72 and T-80 production having ended in the early 2000s or so. However, Russia is slated to restart the T-80 production, and has done so for the turbine engines, but not yet the tank hulls themselves.

One plausible estimate is that Russia is producing about 250-300 T-90Ms per year, then refurbing another 200-250 old T-72s into T-72B3Ms, 200-250 old T-80s into T-80BVMs, then another 250 old T-62s into T-62Ms and probably an equal number of T-55s now being sent to the front as well. This would make for roughly ~1250 yearly "production" but only a fraction is brand new, and a large portion of it are old T-62s and T-55s—as an example.

Here are Western estimates for how those tanks could be dwindling:

As you can see above, Russia can potentially go up to 2029 and beyond, though a "critical point" is reached in 2027 whereby the remaining tanks would be in bad shape. However, any tank can be restored no matter the shape, so long as you provide all new components like engines, etc.

But many Western experts are now claiming Russia will run into trouble as early as 2025-2026. I've long held that by that point, Russia would have upped the production of new tanks to match losses. One thing the pro-Western 'experts' leave out is that recent Russian tank losses have been dipping extremely low, even by their own accounting:

June 24, as can be seen sees nearly the lowest losses of the war, at 56, with July not yet printed but likely as low or lower. Keep in mind, even the above losses are typically overstated as they list anything that's hit even if the tank is recoverable, and likely double count a lot as well. But it still gives a good indication of trends.

In the above you can see the share of T-62 losses going up this year, and the T-72 share decreasing over time.

If Russia maintains current loss tempos then they can last quite a long time, particularly given that Ukraine's equipment is getting worse over time as well. But of course, Russia's chief concern would not be Ukraine, but rather getting its own tank force attritioned to the point where Russia would be defenseless against NATO. A weakened Russia with few remaining tanks would be viewed as ripe for the taking and would wield little deterrence against further NATO aggression in the future. Thus, Russia needs to maintain adequate tank forces in reserve to deter a NATO hellbent on building up its forces on Russia's border.

It's important to remember, however, that NATO's tank forces—barring the U.S.—are so pitifully low that even a highly depleted Russia would vastly outnumber them. Germany, France, and UK have hardly 300 working tanks amongst the three of them. It's the U.S. Russia would have to worry about, but even America's tank force is not quite as strong as it used to be, with recent official figures showing a mere ~900 active tanks in the army.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2024/03/20/might-russia-run-out-of-big-guns

More interesting is the discussion of barrels, where the West claims Russia is suffering its most critical issues at the moment. Western 'experts' now claim Russia only produces 100 artillery barrels per year, and that they only have one single foreign machine to do it.

Here's one 'expert' commenting on the new Economist article:

https://archive.ph/iIp7T

In fact, in an earlier Economist article they even claimed Russia makes 50 artillery barrels per year:

https://archive.ph/sa5RT

And note the sly insinuation that the untermensch Russians can only steal forging machines from the superior Austrians and Germans, or buy them from the Americans.

Problem is, as I've reported before—the U.S. itself only has one single artillery barrel production line in the entire country, at the Watervliet Arsenal in New York, and guess what machine it uses? The same exact Austrian GFM as Russia.

Left: Watervliet Arsenal in Upstate New York
Right: Motovilikha Factory in Perm, Russia

The same exact GFM machine in both.

In fact, this article from earlier this year mentions how U.S.' only artillery barrel manufacturer doesn't even have the capability to create the longer 52 caliber barrels with further range to give Ukrainian M109s better capability. And so to do that, they're forced to consider manufacturing the barrels at Rheinmetall Waffe Munition, Unterlüß, Germany. Recall that the U.S. can't even design its own tank barrel—the Abrams tanks use German Rheinmetall Rh-120 barrels.

But more interestingly, I happened to find this semi-recently declassified CIA doc, which you can happily peruse on the official CIA site:

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/print/2068052

It discusses secret intelligence from the 60s, 70s, and 80s regarding the transfer of Austrian barrel forging machines to the USSR. And boy, let me tell you: the numbers are jaw-droppingly massive.

Here they state that the USSR initially purchased 26 of the rotary GFM forges:

Read the article for more details if you're interested. It lists the USSR's purchase of further forges later on, though many of them were used for all kinds of barrels from machine guns, tanks, large mortars like the 240mm Tyulpan, etc.

And what do you know, it even has a photo of the Watervliet Arsenal in New York, confirming its use of the same Austrian GFM SXP-55 machine:

But here's the grand kicker: how many barrels could the USSR produce per year with all these machines? The CIA conveniently fills us in:

Now, we all know Russia is not the Soviet Union, and even Russia's annual tank production capacity of ~1200 is said to be 1/4 of peak Soviet Cold War capacity of 4000 tanks per year. But how believable do you reckon it is, that Russia can now only make 100 barrels per year, when with the same machines, they previously could make upwards of a whopping 250,000?

And do you think Russia threw away all those dozens of machines and only has a single one left? If they're in such short supply as the Economist article claims, then how come a cursory web search shows Russian companies literally trying to sell these machines on Korean websites? Here's a GFM SXP-55 located somewhere in Rostov-on-Don:

Happen to be in the market for one?

Also, it should be noted that Russia doesn't even actually need these specialty Austrian machines to make barrels. You can make barrels without them, it simply takes longer. The rotary machine allows you to hammer the barrel blank from all sides conveniently, reducing the time by several factors. The CIA report even corroborates this:

Even if Russia's capacity were 1/100th of the USSR's it would mean the production of vastly more than a mere 100 barrels per year, as the West laughably claims.

Interestingly, in light of all this, a recent RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) piece from last month has proposed recalibrating the entire strategy to defeat Russia—instead of trying to defeat it kinetically on the battlefield, they now see that Russia can only be beaten by taking out its defense-economic sector:

https://static.rusi.org/methodology-degrading-russian-arms-rusi-op-june-2024.pdf

They propose to do this not by physically bombing the manufacturing plants but rather by working to cut the Russian defense sector's ties to Western procurement and supply chains; e.g.

At the end of the day, all the above panic-stoking about Russian equipment losses is meant to mask the fact that Ukraine itself is coming closer and closer to capitulation. The situation has gotten so bad that even Zelensky is now openly saying the "hot phase" of the war will be over by year's end, as in his latest interview during the UK trip:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world-must-pressure-russia-toward-081710792.html

Nearly everyone else is saying the same—for instance, Arestovich in his latest interview, who states that Ukraine will give one final "hurrah" offensive in October of this year, and that will be a wrap:

Many believe that Ukraine is being ordered to deliver one final powerful offensive just before the election, to give Biden—if he's still there—a triumphant boost in the standings. And should that offensive massively flop—as it rightly would—then it could be the AFU's swan song.

Ex-CFR head Richard Haass likewise went on the air to reiterate that Ukraine has no chance of taking any land back, and that the new policy has to be for U.S. and allies to simply protect what he calls "core Ukraine":

It's just another euphemistically soft way of saying: "Let Russia take its land and let us protect rump-state Ukraine while it still exists."

And of course the biggest coverup of all—for which the Russian "equipment crisis" deflection is being drummed up—is simply how fast the AFU is now losing territory. Day after day, Russian forces continue to liberate multiple kilometers each outing, with numerous settlements and villages now falling each week.

It was only a couple months ago that I was writing here about the AFU's Donetsk-region western-line of defense in Progress/Prohres—which was still far from Russian forces at the time with several other settlements between them.

Who remembers this map I posted a couple months ago? Check Prohres right on top of the big yellow line:

Well, guess what? As of today, Russian forces have entered and fully captured Progress/Prohres:

It's a key town on the Vovcha River defense line, which was meant to be Ukraine's last fallback in that region.

Now there are said to be major advances toward the Ugledar MSR:

Some Russian recon/screening forces have reportedly reached the highway, and it's said to now be under fire control, which means Ugledar could soon be partly encircled and in deep trouble.

There are many other captures, such that I can't even list them all. Ivano-Darovka, west of Sporne and south of Seversk, was taken:

The Toretsk and neighboring Niu York zones are in danger. New advances are pushing deep into the center of Pivnichne as we speak:

Zoomed in:

And Niu York continues to be lanced by a deep salient:

This is significant because Toretsk itself is slowly becoming encircled, and once it falls in the deeper future, a much tighter cauldron will begin forming over the critical Konstantinovka—which will be one of the key battles of the entire war:

What do you notice about the map above?

Here's Bakhmut:

In fact, Konstantinovka and Bakhmut are very similar in size and population. And when Konstantinovka is taken, it opens the door to the final crown jewels: Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

Granted, that's still a long way's away. But the advances are nonstop now, as can be seen.

An interesting little update: an Australian mercenary named Brock "Chippy" Greenwood was recently killed in Ukraine, reportedly in Makeevka, on the Svatove-Kupyansk front:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-12/seven-australians-killed-fighting-ukraine-war-brock-greenwood/104090346

But what was more interesting is that he was actually an active Reddit poster, giving updates and answering questions about the war:

Tweeter Anomandris Purake gave some fascinating highlights from Chippy's Reddit post history, and many of his statements are quite revealing.

Here he expresses frustration at armchair laymen's inability to grasp how good Russian EW is:

Next, he says that most Western soldiers simply can't comprehend the type of war this is:

In one of the most revealing bits of all, someone asks him about Russia's infamous "meat-wave" tactics—a myth Chippy rebukes:

Here he says NATO training is a joke, confirming something we've long discussed here:

Another damning refutation of a false narrative. Recall how bitterly the West clings to the canard that Ukraine "vastly overmatches" Russia in drone production/warfare, etc. Chippy adamantly rejects this notion and says the opposite—it's the AFU that can't compete with Russian drone production:

Well, would you look at that!

And in fact, he confirms it twice—read carefully:

Isn't it fascinating how the information directly relayed by actual frontline mercenaries always contradicts the popular pro-UA narratives? This must be the third or fourth merc we've featured here now—recall the Willy OAM series—that says the same exact thing.

In fact, he mentions Willy here after some commentators disparage him:

And here he brings a brainwashed loon who believes Russia suffers 10:1 casualties, back down to earth:

Well, so much for him:

As a last related bit:

A big fiasco occurred in the Ukrainian 59th brigade recently, which was devastated badly. Not only do they speak about how the entire top staff of the brigade was wiped out, but that a newly recruited all-convict "Skhval" battalion was sent to reinforce the brigade with little training, which led to further massive losses of the brigade.

Some last odds and ends:

Firstly, in light of some of the above discussions regarding Russian drone and EW capabilities, here famed correspondent Kharchenko reports from the Kharkov-Volchansk front and confirms that Russian EW is working very well in rebuffing AFU drone power:

The auto-translation can be a little wonky so here's a writeup:

Spent a day with electronic warfare units in the Kharkov direction. Now I can definitely say that electronic warfare works.

Ukrainian drones are identified and destroyed. I saw with my own eyes how I turn over the "birds" and they fall limply into the fields. Artillery, aviation and air defense can be heard, but electronic warfare cannot be heard. That's why we often hear that our systems don't work. Without electronic cover there would be many times more drones.

Areas began to appear on the front that enemy drones avoid. But, of course, electronic warfare is not a 100% guarantee. It is impossible to intercept everything. Firstly, the enemy has more and more drones, and secondly, they are constantly changing frequencies. Our guys work to the limit and with sheer enthusiasm. They themselves are constantly collecting something and coming up with ways to intercept enemy drones.

Electronic warfare is only one of the means of destroying enemy UAVs, and these means must be used in conjunction with other measures. And, of course, we need more people and modern means of suppression.

Alexander Kharchenko

Another top correspondent, Sladkov, left a meeting with Defense Minister Belousov today, where many other correspondents again had a very frank discussion. Sladkov was very optimistic and says a lot of big things are coming down the pipeline:

Not only is Russia developing new EW systems to be included on factory tanks very soon but Belousov reportedly said that airplane hangers have finally been budgeted to shield Russia's airbases from UAV and cluster munition attacks, amongst other things.

And on the topic of the Defense Ministry, Supreme Commander Gerasimov visited the front—specifically, the command post of the Vostok Group, presenting awards to those who liberated Urozhaynoye (Harvest). He also was given a first hand tour of some of the latest ground-bots the troops have been cooking up:

On that note, it was confirmed the Russian 40th Pacific Fleet Marines participated in that wild Mad Max-style motorcycle assault of Urozhaynoye, detailed in a more vivid account here:

And regarding UGV bots, here's another latest design:

In fact, more and more Russian forces are incorporating large drones into their logistics deliveries:

One of the clearest ever shots of a Russian Mi-28NM firing the LMUR, now designated as Kh-39, into Ukrainian positions:

One of the first clear cases of an ATACMS being shot down, as can be seen by the fact its body is ruptured by what is likely fragmentation blast from a Buk or equivalent missile:

Manufacture date of 2002:

Geolocation: 48.542851,39.381282 over a field in Lugansk:

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Simplicius The Thinker
18 Jul 2024 | 5:58 am

4. Can Democrats Turn Crisis Into Opportunity?


The Trump "event" has come and gone, and we're really no closer to knowing precisely what happened, as details have only become more convoluted, with endless conspiracy theories floated by click- and ragebait-happy pundits. Of course, that includes the media itself, which floated the most nonsensical conspiracy theory of all: that Iran may have been responsible for Trump's assassination attempt.

But I don't intend to get into the nitty gritty as it's pointless playing detective over an event whose chief perpetrators are known to all with a modicum of logical ability.

The more interesting aspect is how things have returned to relative normality after such a momentous, potentially epoch-shifting circumstance. Democrats have done their best to re-stabilize the political narrative back to status quo and demonstrate that Trump's election chances have not been overly boosted. It's quite difficult to tell these days, as the epistemic divergence has become so vast between the two sides that each literally operates in the haze of a separate reality. Democrat surveys show Biden still ahead, while other polls show a catastrophic situation for Biden's re-election chances.

There is a deep sense of normalcy bias in America, with the masses seemingly impervious to any sense of doom or dread. But if you examine the 'worst case scenarios' over the course of the past year, almost every one was hit in turn. For instance, at one point it seemed inconceivable that a recent President could be impeached, then charged or jailed, yet it was done to Trump. Now, many thought it an unlikely fantasy that they would try to take him out the kinetic way, and we've now seen that happen too.

What will be the next axe to fall?

Many consider it inconceivable that America could erupt into civil war or mass uncontrolled, runaway political violence and open conflict. The scary thought is that all the previous 'inconceivables' swiftly came to pass, and in fairly unimpeded manner at that. Things feel calm, so such a drastic escalation innately feels 'improbable'. Yet, as stated, in perfect sequence, all previous improbables were hit in turn: why should we expect the escalation spiral to ever stop? Rationally speaking, we should be prepared for the next shoe to drop as the deepstate does everything in their power to keep Trump from taking office.

In fact, the deepstate's now in worse trouble—not only because they've energized the Trump base with the failed hit, but because they've inadvertently put a muzzle on their own rhetoric. From this point forward, they'll have to be much more careful of what they say so as not to be accused of inciting more violence—but this in effect takes away their most powerful weapon: dog-whistling implied threats against their ideological opponents.

Granted, that won't stop them completely—and in fact, there have already been statements from the White House that "no change" will be made in their rhetoric. Here's Karine Jean-Pierre expressing just that, as tactfully as her duplicity would allow:

Further, regime media figures—as if pathologically incapable of helping themselves—have continued to 'accidentally' dog-whistle the same threats to their propagandistically radicalized base:

Watch the cretinously immoral commander-in-chief likewise cover his tracks with a series of flubbed excuses:

In fact, the Democrats, Left, and deepstate allies have adamantly been back-tracking with claims they weren't the ones pushing division, and that they're the party of unity and reconciliation—but everyone that's been even half-conscious for the last few years knows that's a lie:

Despite all that, however, the Democrats will be forced to temper their rhetoric somewhat, and that will hurt them; they will have to second-guess themselves all the time, and proof has already emerged with the Biden administration announcing that all currently planned ads would be pulled down and rejigged, as they all apparently featured quite "inciting" language against Trump:

Secondly, since the deepstate had planned to succeed and be rid of the Trump problem, the historic miss hurts their chances of reprising such an attack on Trump or other bothersome candidates. They have now been forced to at least feign concern and precaution by making security concessions that will play into the resistance camp's hands:

But even if the latest developments have ensured that Trump should win the election, his near-assassination has taught us one very important lesson: that the Right will not "revolt" or wage some kind of dramatic, Hollywood-style civil war any time soon, even if further aggravations of a terminal sort occur, such as the total theft of the election later this year.

Many on the Right now brag that not a single fire was lit, nor a soul harmed in the wake of an open hit attempt on their candidate. However, some still cling to fantasies that were the shooter successful, an explosive civil war would have kicked off. But given the total normalcy and calm even in the face of near-disaster, it's become evident that the majority of normal Americans will not "rise up" any time soon. Whether it's a level of first world comfort that has yet to be totally eroded, or mass propagandizing, or the simple decades of docility imposed upon them by the establishment—it's hard to know for sure. But it's clear no one is going to "rise up" in the way some have imagined any time soon.

It has led me to contemplate what a potential civil war could actually look like if it did kick off, and what I've concluded is that it would have to be at the behest of strong State governments initiating some major anti-federal actions. Texas, for instance, could begin some of the anti-fed moves Governor Abbott promised long ago, leading to the call up of citizens into the National Guard or even declaring the call up of various state militias. Most people don't know that the National Guard is actually State controlled, with the governor as its commander-in-chief. It only becomes 'Federalized' under an express order from the President for a specific Federal mission, which in such dire circumstances could be ignored by the State, thus spurring a conflict. Ron Desantis, in fact, has already threatened to do this, among other things.

This is what a real "civil war" would actually look like—not spontaneous Republicans armed with shotguns storming the streets when their candidate gets robbed for the second time in the election. However, if such a hypothetical State-led effort were to kick off, then it could spur more spontaneous citizens' movements on the ground.

I mention all this because we began the article with the idea that we're now living in a time of normalcy bias, where all the earlier 'inconceivable' scenarios are slowly coming to pass. As such, we can no longer totally dismiss the possibility that anything can happen during the forthcoming election, as the situation has now become more charged than ever.

For a while now I've nursed a bad feeling that during the coming election we could see America's equivalent of the Russian 1993 Constitutional Crisis—you know, that one:

Where Boris Yeltsin rode in on a tank to dismantle the Russian Parliament and centralize his own power. Personally, I don't think America will quite devolve into full civil war just yet, but that we could see our first "close call" during this election, which could materialize as some sort of smaller military clash in the capital between the two sides and their supporters, a sort of supercharged J6.

Why won't there be real civil war just yet? Mostly because Americans are still too comfortable, and the great Israeli Deception is only just beginning to come into public consciousness:

It may take another decade for that to truly come to a head to the point where the average citizen realizes that all of America's blood and treasure has been bankrupted solely for the benefit of establishing Israel's Kingdom in the Middle East. Only then might things ratchet up enough to a point of open conflict—though it could be quickly mooted by Israel's collapse as a nation, which is not altogether off the cards in the next few years, by the look of things.

Plan "C" for Collapse

What is the Democrats' and deepstate's plans for if they fail in stopping Trump's re-election? We know that Biden's corrupt administration has been desperately covering the destruction of the U.S. economy. Every possible metric has been pasted over and lied about.

"Unemployment is low!" Proven to be fraud, as actual American citizens lost millions of jobs over the past few years, and only illegal migrants have been beneficiaries of new jobs, and part-time ones at that.

"Inflation has dropped to record lows!" Total fraud. Inflation is compounding on a yearly basis. Just because it dropped to 2-3% for this year doesn't undo the massive inflationary damage of the past four years of Biden's administration. Inflation calculated from a point of 4-5 years ago is actually up by 30-50% if not more.

"Crime is lower than ever!" Another perpetrated lie. It turns out most Democrat cities and districts stopped reporting crimes to the FBI, resulting in "lower" figures.

Similarly, Biden's officials continue to downplay the migrant invasion, which has been the largest and most socially and economically catastrophic in the nation's history. It's clear they've been "bottling up" an unprecedented level of national devastation to be "released" at a time of their choosing.

Can you guess when that time will be?

Their plans of lawfare against Trump failed, their plans to keep him off the ballot failed, their plans to outright remove him by kinetic force failed. So if he weathers this final leg of the storm and manages to get re-elected, there's only one final Plan "C" remaining: unleash the economic Black Swan to drown Trump's presidency in historic turmoil and crisis.

Even Janet Yellen has recently begun admitting the U.S. Dollar faces its doom:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/16/janet-yellen-quietly-admits-serious-us-dollar-collapse-fears-as-trump-primes-bitcoin-for-a-4-trillion-price-surge/

I believe all those deep dysfunctions the current administration has bottled up will be 'released' onto the Trump presidency. The economy's true state will be allowed to be witnessed in full, and the entrenched establishment players may even set off triggers to accelerate its collapse—not only to stain the image of Trump's presidential term, but to ruin any chances at the overarching and radical 'reforms' he supposedly seeks to launch.

Interestingly, though, Trump and Vance's ideas for reform are so radical—a la Javier Milei—that they may very well welcome initial 'collapse' of a sort in order to fundamentally restructure and recalibrate the system. For instance, Vance has now gone on record with the idea that devaluing the U.S. Dollar may be a good thing, for the purposes of trade protectionism and killing off of parasitic globalism:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/15/jd-vance-agenda-policies-00168467

Couple that with Trump's other radical designs, like abolishing the Income Tax, and we may soon be in uncharted waters, rife with unpredictably wild economic swings. Such circumstances would likewise create ripe conditions for establishment saboteurs to tank the economy into collapse under the guise of Trump's 'reforms', killing two birds with one stone; it would allow them to effect their Great Reset on the financial system all while blaming a historic depression on 'Trump's fiscal recklessness'.

Either way, we can be sure that if he wins, they will do everything in their power to sabotage the economy and drown his term in chaos, punishing his 'deplorable' base in the process.

For further reading, here's a new article from Tree of Woe wherein he predicts what he calls the American Eschaton:

I predict an American Eschaton: The end of America as we know it. It will be a Fourth Turning, but it will be a Fourth Turning that goes against us. The exact manner in which our eschaton will occur is much harder to predict. The end of America as we know it doesn't necessarily mean nuclear apocalypse, government collapse, or secession. It could simply mean a transformation of America into something Unamerican. (The Russian Revolution of 1918 was the end of Russia as the Russian of the time knew it, for instance.)

He in fact reaches much of the same conclusions as my own about the impending economic collapse:

Imagine, if you will, that the smartest members of the ruling class have concluded that Trump is very likely to win; imagine, further that they believe economic calamity is unavoidable or global war is inevitable or necessary. If so, then it would make sense to allow Trump to be elected and then "accelerate" progress towards these events. Why?

If there is an economic collapse under Trump's administration (perhaps due to de-dollarization), he will be blamed in the same way that Herbert Hoover was blamed for the Great Depression; and just as Hoover's economic policies were utterly discredited for generations, so too will Trump's. Moreover, the resulting economic conditions might pave the way for a new Roosevelt on the Left with the usual socialist promises to make things better.

And while I don't believe it's an absolute certainty, and that there is a chance that Trump could triumph over the deepstate, which is admittedly in a highly weakened state, and is awaiting a deathblow from a strong united patriot front, I still agree with Tree of Woe's final foreboding conclusion:

The future is uncertain. But yesterday's assassination attempt should be a wake-up call for normies and muggles who continue to believe that "nothing ever happens." Things are happening, and the worst is yet to come. Whether the future holds a national divorce, a civil war, an economic calamity, or a global war, I cannot say. Sadly, the one thing I least expect is peaceful transfer of power to the next President.

Read more here:

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe American Eschaton Part III On Friday, I said I'd do a Substack post on Sunday. Then, on Saturday, a gunman attempted to assassinate President Trump on live TV. He failed, but it was a horrible and historic moment, the sort we will all remember for years to come. I don't have any new information to offer that isn't already circulating in our circles, nor do I see much value in sp… Read more 8 days ago · 159 likes · 44 comments · Tree of Woe

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Simplicius The Thinker
16 Jul 2024 | 5:10 am

5. SITREP 7/15/24: Crumbling NATO Buys Time for Broad European War


Zelensky arrived in the U.S. for NATO's grand 75th anniversary summit, which turned out to be another sniveling disappointment, embellished with the usual carrot-on-a-stick promises that offered nothing concrete.

Here ex-ambassador Chas Freeman goes one step further in declaring it a swan song for NATO:

Instead of strengthening the NATO alliance and showing its power, the latest summit in Washington did the opposite, it laid bare its cracks, its failure to deal with reality, and its incapacity to respond to the unstoppable emergence of Multipolarity.

It was a summit of retreat and will be remembered as the moment when NATO, instead of reinventing itself, doubled down with the same failed approach that ultimately leads to its demise.

The summit was a also an amazing show of undiplomatic visions of world-domination.

But all the manic pledges of 'air defense' systems did make an indirect revelation as to the severe attrition of AD suffered by Ukraine of late. Many reports have given us indicators of this; for instance last week's strike on Kiev, with satellite images showing an airport that housed Patriot systems being hit. Ukraine supporters continue to claim the elusive Western systems are not being found and taken out by Russia, but the scramble to resupply tells a different story.

This recent strike on Kiev was particularly notable for how little AD was present, as an uncommon amount of videos showed Russian missiles hitting their targets. Further, missile trajectory maps were subsequently published with commentary stating that the strike was somewhat unusual as most of the Russian missiles pretty much went straight to their targets across Ukraine without the usual highly irregular winding patterns meant to misdirect UA intelligence and confuse national AD grid ops. These are all indicators that AD has been severely attritioned by Russian strikes, it's just that, as with everything, we don't see it because—unlike image-conscious Ukraine and NATO—Russian MOD doesn't justify the release of constant images and videos of their normal mundane work, not to mention they prefer keeping up a professional OPSEC.

The summit also featured some entertainment, which included the worst presidential flub arguably in American history, right on cue to embarrass an already shame-faced Zelensky even more:

The one interesting takeaway was the CFR's Foreign Affairs mag releasing their vision of a compromise for Ukraine's future:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/better-path-ukraine-and-nato

The eye-opening concept is revealing as to how the West likes its chances in Ukraine. In short, they propose following not the Korean DMZ model, but rather the German 'Berlin Wall' model. Though they beat around the bush somewhat, as it's clearly a radical idea sure to ruffle feathers and frighten many Ukrainians, they in essence propose that Ukraine should decide which territory to give up, and then the remainder under Ukraine's control should form its own new state that would be allowed to enter NATO proper. The consolation is that, just like West Germany was eventually reunified with East, they contend that Ukraine can 'hold out' under the promise of reunification with the territory they lost at some indeterminate future time:

Given the lessons in these models, leaders of NATO member states should, in private, encourage Kyiv to do three things: First, define a provisional, militarily defensible border. Second, agree to self-limitations on infrastructure on unoccupied territory (such as the permanent stationing of foreign troops or nuclear weapons) with the important Norwegian disclaimer that these limits are valid only as long as Ukraine is not under attack or threat of attack. Third, and most painful, undertake not to use military force beyond that border except in self-defense, as the West Germans did, in order to assure NATO allies that they won't suddenly find themselves at war with Russia as soon as Ukraine becomes a member. The cost of this step would be acceptance of open-ended division, but the benefit would be to give most of Ukraine a safe haven in NATO.

Once settled, Kyiv and the alliance would go public with these agreements. NATO could amplify Kyiv's unilateral statement with a similar declaration. The goal would be for independent Ukraine to join NATO as soon as feasible, ideally before January 20, 2025—but, if need be, as part of Trump's "deal."

As can be seen by the end, they even radically propose for this plan to be enacted ASAP to beat Trump to the punch, thus is their sheer terror at the fallout of a Trump presidency. It should also be noted that Trump's new VP pick, JD Vance, has previously stated unequivocally that Ukraine should give up land to end the war.

The problem is, almost all of the above in practice sounds virtually no different to the previous Minsk accords. What possible incentive would Russia have in taking such a "deal" which freezes the conflict and brings NATO even closer to Russian territory—thus effectively achieving the complete opposite of Russia's chief objectives in the war?

Later in the piece, they even absurdly propose for a NATO 'no fly zone' to be enforced on the demarcating line. Right—that will go over well, the Kremlin is sure to welcome NATO stealth fighters peacefully 'patrolling' a split Donetsk/Lugansk territory.

The only real danger is that, if such a plan represents the internal brainstorms of connected CFR deepstate bigwigs, then it can only mean they're likewise considering forcibly freezing the conflict in such a way even should Russia reject the idea.

In fact, months ago I wrote about this very idea from a different source: the proposal for Ukraine to "cut off" the taken territories and then fast-track its remaining rump-state into NATO, to hide behind the skirts of Article 5. Technically, it can happen, especially owing to the fact that most Ukrainian citizens are now fine with giving up the lost territories, as per recent polls.

The only issue would of course be the vetoing of such a move by saner NATO members like Hungary, but there could be mechanisms to deal with that. Although, the danger for such a drastic plan to totally rip NATO apart and cause its collapse would likely be great; but in the minds of desperate Western globalists it would be a trade off: should Ukraine lose the war in decisively dramatic fashion, NATO would face its extinction anyway.

This is why, for instance, the Western banking cabal is so rabidly earnest in seizing stolen Russian sovereign funds despite the risk of it completely delegitimizing the entire Western financial system: they know that if Russia wins the war, this system will collapse anyway, owing to a runaway effect of de-dollarization and Russia's leading role in the paradigm-breaking multipolarity grand awakening.

Never underestimate the folly of evildoers facing their mortal demise.

One interesting digression: the article inadvertently validates Russia's justifications for the war in a way that's very telling about the West's morally untenable position.

First, in a bit of historical prefacing, they strangely admit that Norway not only faced no threat from Russia, but was in fact saved by Russia in World War Two, yet still illogically joined NATO to conversely threaten Russia:

Seventy-five years ago, Norway wanted what Ukraine wants today: to become an ally despite bordering Russia (then in the Soviet Union). Although Moscow wasn't invading Norway at that time, or ever—in fact, the Red Army had even helped liberate some northern Norwegian territory from the Nazis—Norwegians had bitter memories of how their onetime neutrality had ended in brutal Nazi occupation. And they were horrified as Czechoslovakia—another formerly occupied country between East and West—fell under Moscow's control in 1948. These experiences diminished the attractiveness of continued neutrality.

Follow the stated logic above with me for a moment:

  1. Norway was never threatened by Russia

  2. Russia saved Norway from the Nazis

  3. For the sake of safety from future attacks, Norway joins an alliance to protect itself from the nation which…protected and liberated it from its attacker

Does that make sense to anyone?

Incomprehensibly, the article then makes another jolting admission—that Putin very reasonably requested for NATO to not station long range missiles on Russia's border:

How is that—even in the minds of the bitterest Russophobes—not a rationally reasonable request? For a leader of a country to ask a giant threatening alliance to not position its devastating long range weaponry on his country's borders is something even the most cynical demagogue can understand.

What can we say? It merely shows the intellectual bankruptcy and moral disingenuousness terminally plaguing the West.

What has become evident in the wake of the NATO summit, however, is the overarching plan that the West has to goad Russia into a major European war by the end of the decade. The reason for this is well known: the globalist-financial interests who run the world and make all the top executive decisions in the West have decided there is no other way to 'reset' their system other than war. They tried to push the Great Reset onto humanity via Covid and Agenda 2030, but these plans have failed thus far—and so the only way left to reset the hyper-leveraged and terminally diseased global financial web is via war.

Here they can kill several birds with one stone, as well: destroying ascendant Russia, which has recently taken fourth place in GDP PPP standings and is now leaving Europe in the dust, not to mention trailblazing a new golden path forward for all humanity with its leading role in the Multipolarity project.

Thus, there are now increased agitations for war in the West.

The latest revolves around plans to put long range missiles in Germany, to which Russia has now responded with plans to begin manufacturing long-time-banned intermediate range ballistic missiles.

🇩🇪🇺🇸🇷🇺 U.S. TO START DEPLOYING LONG-RANGE WEAPONS IN PUPPET GERMANY BY 2026 (see article above) - #Moscow warns against escalating move, as #Berlin and #Washington plan unprecedented stationing of missiles with range exceeding 500KM.

U.S. in preparation for longer-term stationing of such capabilities that will include SM-6, Tomahawk cruise missiles and developmental hypersonic weapons that have a longer range than current capabilities in #Europe - Joint statement.

Germany, of late, has been chafing at the bit, with repeated calls from top military officials from the reintroduction of conscription, as well as statements that the country must be prepared for large-scale war "by 2029":

Of course, as per their usual MO, the West conceals their own secret plans by projecting them onto Russia:

🇷🇺⚔️🏴‍☠️Russia may begin to fight with NATO around 2029 - then the Russians will have optimal conditions for this, - Inspector General of the German Army

▪️He predicts approximately 1.5 million soldiers in Russia in 5-8 years, which is twice the number deployed in Ukraine.

▪️The German army only has enough ammunition supplies for 2 days.

▪️Beli is even considering reintroducing compulsory military service in Germany.

▪️Russia is now building ~1500 battle tanks a year - the same number in the five strongest NATO countries. Germany has, for example, only 300 of them.

More:

The US and NATO are preparing for war with Russia. The US is bringing its Tomahawks to Germany. You know how this will end.

Russian Ambassador to the United States Antonov (https://t.me/dimsmirnov175/74948) on American plans to deploy destructive weapons in Germany:

Essentially, we are talking about plans for the United States to deploy medium- and shorter-range missiles in Europe. This is a serious mistake by Washington. The Americans are increasing the risks of a missile arms race. They forget that tying a knot of confrontation can become a detonator of uncontrolled escalation against the backdrop of a dangerous escalation of tensions along the Russia-NATO line. The decision to deploy long-range weapons in Germany from 2026 backfires on Russia's commitment to a moratorium on the deployment of ground-based INF missiles. The Americans have embarked on the dangerous path of militarism.

Here is the official joint statement on the White House site:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/10/joint-statement-from-united-states-and-germany-on-long-range-fires-deployment-in-germany/

It reads, merely:

Following discussions ahead of the NATO Summit, the governments of the United States and Germany released the following joint statement:

The United States will begin episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future.  When fully developed, these conventional long-range fires units will include SM-6, Tomahawk, and developmental hypersonic weapons, which have significantly longer range than current land-based fires in Europe.  Exercising these advanced capabilities will demonstrate the United States' commitment to NATO and its contributions to European integrated deterrence.

One astute Russian observer noted the deja vu:

Military expert Alexander Zimovsky: "It's as if I woke up again 40 years ago, in 1983. In the Leningrad room of the 14th company of the Faculty of Military Journalism of the LVVPU there was a fresh copy of Pravda, with Andropov's answers to the questions of the newspaper correspondent. And they talked about the deployment of American Pershing-2 missiles in Western Europe. It was called "Euromissiles" Nothing has changed today, neither in meaning nor textually. Only now the Americans are deploying their missiles in Eastern Europe." You know how this will end.

In short, the plan by the globalist hawk faction appears to be to extend the Ukraine war as long as possible then 'tie it on' into a wider European war by goading Russia into attacking Europe after threatening and provoking Russian sovereignty with a variety of existential threats. The timeline could be to take the Ukrainian war to at least 2027-2028, then begin the next phase of the conflict. All the while, Russia remains economically subdued, and more importantly—Europe and Russia remain locked out from each other's markets, while U.S. can maintain its economic supremacy unchallenged.

The problem with the above is that now that Trump is almost a shoe-in, and has chosen JD Vance as running mate—who is extremely anti-Ukraine—Europe is panicking as it dawns on them that they truly will be on their own in buttressing Ukraine come next year.

The writing is on the wall.

With the way things are going, their plan may fall apart over the course of the next few years as populist movements gain ascendancy in Europe. It's already being talked about how the French 2027 presidential elections will likely go to Le Pen's camp—Macron's "cheating" play bought some time for now, but the rising tide is obvious to see and likely unstoppable. How can such a fractured Europe be expected to indefinitely support Ukraine?

Important assorted items:

Russian and Chinese cooperation continues increasing apace. Not only have the two superpowers conducted new maritime exercises together, but the Russian Deputy Defense Minister met with his Chinese counterpart, specifically commenting on how China is learning from the SMO:

Russian Deputy Defence Minister Lieutenant General Andrei Bulyga holds talks with Chinese counterpart Major General Zhang Fang

Today, the Patriot Congress and Exhibition Centre has held the Russia–China consultations to discuss cooperation and share experience of the People's Liberation Army Joint Logistics Support Force.

During the talks between Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Lieutenant General Andrei Bulyga with Deputy Commander of the Combined Logistical Support Army of the People's Liberation Army of China Major General Zhang Fang held a detailed exchange of views on the organisation of logistics support for the Armed Forces in the two countries.

The Chinese delegation learnt from the Russian counterparts about the approaches that have been developed to improve logistic support and the use of combat service support capabilities in the special military operation.

'The special military operation has shown us issues to be addressed to improve the logistical support of the troops. We gather the data and put it into practice. Every day, the most advanced warfare methods and its combat service support are being employed on the front line,' noted Lieutenant General Andrei Bulyga, the Russian Deputy Defence Minister.

As part of the cultural programme, the Chinese delegation visited the Main Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces and the Guerrilla Village in the Patriot Patriotic Park of Recreation and Leisure of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

This comes on the heels of the following news reported in MSM:

In fact, the integration of Russia and its multipolar partners is heading into a deeper direction than even I had anticipated. Recently two major interesting statements were made—the first by Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko to the BRICS parliamentary forum:

In essence, they are pushing ahead with the BRICS Bridge program, creating an interoperable digital currency amongst the BRICS nations. For the worried conspiracy watchers out there—this is not a digital currency for civilians, but rather for the settlements of payments between countries and their central banks.

But the far more interesting and weightier statement was made by Putin, who suggested that in the future, BRICS will get its own Parliament—presumably akin to that of the European Union:

Now this is something to be worried about, on the surface, conspiracy-wise. We've talked for a long time here about how the BRICS represents a new global order away from the WEF-ruled Atlanticist authoritarian cabal of unelected bureaucrats. BRICS, we thought, was going to be a much more decentralized, non-coercive counterweight. But this seems to suggest that BRICS is in fact heading in the direction of a European model, perhaps—we don't have the details quite yet.

Even so, if that's the case, I'm not worried yet myself, because the impulses behind the BRICS movement—its movers and shakers, its financial underpinning—is not the same as the West's and its centuries' old dynastic Old Money aristocracy. If anything, it could speed up BRICS development by having a slightly more centralized model where real regulation can be passed amongst the members, rather than just speculated on and left open ended. But we'll have to wait and see.

For those interested, here's an entire discussion on this:

Now for some frontline updates:

Horrors continue to unfold for the AFU. A paramedic with the AFU's 59th brigade has written a dire plea to Zelensky after her brigade suffered catastrophic losses:

Disaster in the 59th Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: the brigade commander-butcher throws soldiers to slaughter and the brigade suffers heavy losses in battles with the "O" group "valiant".

A scandal in the next "meat brigade" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - military paramedic E. Polishchuk, released from captivity, "Bird" appealed to Zelensky with a demand to influence the catastrophic situation that developed in the 59th Meat Brigade after the appointment of Bogdan Shevchuk as brigade commander.

"Due to Shevchuk's inhumane and unprofessional attitude, I am forced to stop collaborating with this famous brigade, but not everyone has the opportunity to resist criminal orders aimed solely at getting additional stars for this person.

I ask you to take action and remove from making important military decisions people who are not interested in preserving personnel, completing tasks and winning. Military honor and the honor of an officer are not empty words. At least, they shouldn't be like that." -RVvoenkor

In fact, the incident has sent shockwaves through the AFU such that it is being reported Syrsky himself has been dispatched to inspect the 59th in person.

Likewise, Julian Ropcke has continued to sound the alarm about Russia's nonstop breakthroughs and advances, which have steadily compounded since our last report:

An AFU unit in the Kupyansk direction reports that Russians captured over 200 of their men in the past month:

Russian forces released videos of some of them:

You can see where they were captured corresponds to the Kupyansk direction, as it was in Terny, which is in the north right on the Kharkov-Donetsk oblast contact line, not far from Svatov and Kremennaya.

Meanwhile ex-US ambassador to NATO has blatantly demanded for the immediate gangpressing of all 18-year olds in Ukraine:

The official account for the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces beat him to the punch by releasing images of some of their members, which included a mortarman who looks suspiciously like a teenage girl:

Higher rez original so you can see her earring:

And in fact, some reports claim that Ukraine is already mobilizing under-25s unofficially en masse—something you can see with your own eyes on the front.

A sample was given of a mobik born in the year 2000:

In Ukraine, the Zemobilization of men 20-25 years old is in full swing, despite the law ... the Ombudsman and deputies do not notice the lawlessness of military police officers, and power covers the TCK (commissars)!
From the beginning of 2025, an appeal may be introduced from the age of 18. The parliament is already collecting a majority for this project, lists of 16-17 summer children are being prepared in order to prevent them from going to the border. At the same time, people under the age of 25 are already being mobilized into the army.
Police officers illegally abducted the police officers and mobilized a 21-year-old and 24-year-old guy against their will, and against their will they were sent to the training ground. At the same time, Colonel Merzlikin beat young people there, to whom the law is not written!

Take care of your children, Zemobilization has nothing to do with the laws of Ukraine, the main thing is to maintain power…

Even MSM is beginning to cover this angle more and more:

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukrainian-men-desperate-to-escape-war-are-drowning-as-they-flee-9cb6d99d

Russian motorcycle tactics continue apace as well, and successfully so. New videos abound of major captures by way of motorbike that look like something out of Mad Max.

The first is a bit from the Espanola Brigade, a mostly volunteer unit made up of wild soccer ultras:

Then there was another video showcasing by far the largest scale motorcycle assault, perhaps in modern history, which led to the total re-capture of Urozhayne (Harvest), which had been taken by the AFU during last year's grand summer counteroffensive:

Given the Marine-looking flag at the end, this could be the Russian 40th Marine Brigade—which operates precisely on that front—and other detachments.

In another world first, Russia showcased the latest Fab-3000 UMPK glide-bomb, a size no other nation has ever been crazy enough to attempt in attaching wings to:

Russia is said to have tested a secret anti-drone laser on the Avdeevka front, though unfortunately as of now there is no further information:

The result of a Russian experimental laser system for destroying drones. Power - 3 kW.

In the Avdeevsky direction, the Russian Armed Forces began to use an experimental laser system to destroy drones

The result of the work in the photo

Sofa General Staff

Business Insider reports that alarm bells are going off in NATO:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-teaching-nato-air-forces-lessons-fighting-russia-2024-7

The alarm bells have been sounding throughout the war in Ukraine, warning loudly that if Kyiv falls, an emboldened Russia could set its sights on NATO next. In such a devastating fight, airpower and airspace control could be decisive.

The Russian air forces have underwhelmed over the past 2 ½ years of war, but they also have rapidly adapted and scored wins through tactics such as stand-off bombing and synchronized drone and missile barrages. Other elements of the aerospace forces have also effectively denied Ukraine the chance to shift the battlefield from the skies.

"It's been surprising they're adapting over time through trial and error," Justin Bronk, an airpower expert at the UK's Royal United Services Institute, said.

After talking to "dozens of defense experts" Business Insider has the following to say about how NATO would fair against Russian air defense networks:

Experts and Western military officers have said that in such a fight, the US and its allies, even with fleets of fifth-generation stealth fighter jets, likely would find it difficult to establish the same level of air dominance they've largely had since the end of World War II.

Giorgio Di Mizio, an air-warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that a fight with Russia would likely be "quite different from all the scenarios that we have faced over the last decades, where there was no contestation of the air domain."

In future fights, it may be possible for the US to achieve air superiority only in bursts — small windows in a specific time, place, and location where air defenses are missing, destroyed, or out of ammo, Gen. David Allvin, the US Air Force chief of staff, said on the "War on the Rocks" podcast in January.

With the final kicker:

"If we can't get air superiority, we're going to be doing the fight that's going on in Russia and Ukraine right now," Hecker said. "And we know how many casualties that are coming out of that fight."

So NATO admits, if it can't get air superiority, it will be suffering mass casualties in an attritional ground war.

The general analytical slant was bolstered by other recent MSM offerings, like this WSJ piece from last week which further describes how badly Western weaponry has been failing in Ukraine:

https://www.wsj.com/world/us-weapons-russia-ukraine-0eed240c

Or this pair of National Interest articles, declaring the F-16 to be dead on arrival in Ukraine:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/age-f-16-fighter-now-completely-over-211743
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/sorry-us-air-force-f-16-fighting-falcon-era-coming-rapid-end-211826

It's now been confirmed by MSM that the reason we're not seeing as much HIMARS and ATACMS activity is because Russia has finally been successfully hunting them down:

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-drones-crimea-himars-1924784

BREAKING: Kyiv has decreased the number of its missile attacks on Crimea because Russian drones are allowing Moscow to scope out Ukrainian artillery such as U.S-supplied HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) it has been reported. But the pro-Ukrainian news outlet Politika Strani (Politics of the Country) said the number of Kyiv's attacks in Crimea had dwindled in recent weeks because of the effectiveness of Russian reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

"There is one problem that threatens the use of HIMARS striking Crimea—the recent activation of Russian reconnaissance drones," Politika Strani said on its Telegram channel in a post next to a map of the Crimean region.

Recall that the HIMARS launcher truck fires both HIMARS and ATACMS missiles, which means destroying the unit curbs both projectile systems.

From the article:

On July 8, the Russian military said it had taken out three HIMARS launchers in the Kherson region, with drone footage showing the purported strike, which has not been confirmed by Kyiv.

Note what they say about Russian recon drones suddenly being an overwhelming problem:

Politika Strani said for Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against the Crimean city of Sevastopol—a Black Sea Fleet hub—HIMARS would be needed around Mykolaiv (Nikolaev) around 170 miles away. But Russian reconnaissance drones were able to reach this area, as well as neighboring Odesa.

Russian drones are "extremely active tens of kilometers from the front line" the post said, which poses a "high risk" to HIMARS installations, it said.

My paid subscribers will know immediately why this dovetails with our reporting here, and why it is only here you'll get the top information ahead of all other sources, particularly the MSM. Last week's paid report featured a newly-leaked Russian drone production document which showed Russian recon drone production numbers, in particular the new versatile Supercam S350:

The document showed over 2000 of the drones now being pumped out per the 2024 fiscal year in Russian factories. That means they are saturating Ukrainian skies, giving HIMARS no where to hide. It's no surprise then, we've suddenly had a big draught of ATACMS strikes, with the "feared" system suddenly having totally vanished from the face of the earth.

Here's a new timely Supercam video from the Russian MOD:

🔎Troops' eyes and ears: what Supercam S350 unmanned aerial system is capable of

Supercam S350 is one of the main reconnaissance drones in use in the special military operation zone. In the special military operation zone, the UAV plays the role of surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting: eyes and ears of Russian servicemen.

S350 is the best way to receive high-precision data at any time of the day and in jamming conditions. The duration of the flight for up to 4.5 hours with the transmission of information up to 100 km provides the necessary reserve of facilities for the use of UAVs in the combat zone.

The main advantages of the vehicle are the speed at which the complex is deployed and launched, the high degree of resistance to the EW means and effective stable communication and transmission of video.

Among the features of the drone system are modular composite elements, interchangeable and combined payloads with unified hydrostabilised platforms, and a wing console detachment system during landing to prevent potential damage.

The drone has proved its effectiveness in the special military operation zone. The reconnaissance and gunners who perform tasks with the use of Supercam UAVs highly praise these 'birds'.

With 900 of these being built per quarter—that's 300 a month or 10 per day—the only bottleneck that will remain are the actual trained and experienced operators, and reconnaissance-fire-complex assets to strike what the Supercams actually identify and track.

Likewise, my paid report focused on Russia's growing AI capabilities, including an exclusive video of one of these Supercams being used with an AI assisted management program. Now, in light of this, comes a new scoop from Rezident UA which fills in some details and confirms our findings:

#Inside
MI-6 handed over to the Office of the President and the General Staff new intelligence that the Russian army has adapted AI for drones and now all information about the movement of equipment is processed in real time. Thanks to new technologies, accurate strikes on mobile air defense systems and HIMARS have become possible, which constantly change their location and previously made it impossible to strike at the enemy. British intelligence recommends pushing the air defense from the front, and using HIMARS to attack from the depths, checking the sky before this for drones.

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Simplicius The Thinker
14 Jul 2024 | 3:26 am

6. SPECIAL BULLETIN: America Teeters on the Abyss


Well, the nightmare scenario we've predicted for a long time is slowly unraveling.

Trump was just shot at his rally in Butler, PA by a rooftop sniper, who is claimed to be an Antifa terrorist, though I haven't seen full corroboration of that yet.

A remarkable photo captured by my former White House Press Corps colleague Doug Mills. Zoom in right above President Trump's shoulder and you'll see a bullet flying in the air to the right of President Trump's head following an attempted assassination.

The second victim now announced as deceased was a man somewhere in the stands behind Trump. An off-duty surgeon confirmed a victim in the stands was hit in the head and had 'brain matter' scattered, which points to a high powered caliber.

The shooter was seen being subsequently pulled from the roof of this building adjacent to the rally:

Alleged shooter being dragged off the roof.

A bystander says he saw the shooter climbing the roof and tried to warn cops and secret service, who ignored him:

Now there are reports that Trump tried to beef up his security detail but has been denied by Biden's DHS:

This comes only days after Biden and other prominent Democrats dog-whistled to their radical supporters to paint Trump as someone who had to be 'stopped' at all costs:

https://x.com/RealSaavedra/status/1812274454715842902

But the most shocking thing of all, is there is now a clearly coordinated total blackout happening of the term "assassination" or "assassination attempt" between the regime media which comprises the fourth branch of government and all the attendant deepstate organs up and down the chain.

Scoop from DC Draino:

SCOOP: Secret instructions given to news reporters telling them to play down Trump's attempted assassination These people are evil

First, get a look at the shameful MSM whitewashing and intentional downplaying of the event, doing everything in their power to cast it as not an attempted assassination:

This should leave you speechless—I have never witnessed such an openly diabolical psyop and mass gaslighting operation. We literally just watched the attempted assassination of an American president, and the media is treating it like a superfluous nonevent.

Later, Barrack Obama joined the coordinated coverup, playing dumb as per his handlers' orders:

And the final proof of the operation came as Biden gave an unplanned national address, half an hour past his newly-announced 8pm bedtime and looking all the worse for it:

Watch the coordinated coverup, as Biden openly refuses to call it an assassination even when directly asked.

The thing is: we know precisely why they're doing it.

It's because if today's event were to be given the official cachet of 'assassination attempt', it would completely and irrevocably de-legitimize the phony "J6" turning point which is one of the last holdfasts the Democrats have left in their quiver against Trump. You see, they've spent four years trying to delude us into believing that J6 was in fact a direct assassination attempt on 'Trump's opponents'—Pelosi just said this days ago—TWICE—as another obvious dogwhistle to her radical base.

Just watch for yourself:

Imagine how fast the fraudulent J6 narrative house of cards would tumble if today's event is allowed to be characterized as an actual assassination—there would be no comparison to the anodyne J6 fairytale where a bunch of old women larped around in the Capitol foyer.

Now, the big thing to watch is how the regime media goes forward—particularly the middle tastemaker and gatekeeper rungs like your Rachel Maddows and 'The View' harridans. They will be desperate to keep Trump as far away from martyrdom as possible—that means obfuscation, obfuscation, obfuscation. They will likely continue via the old CIA playbook of tangling things up, pointlessly hyperfocusing on the procedural minutiae of the investigation into what kind of attack it was. They'll likely drag it out for weeks, months, or however long it takes without definitively ascribing it to the verboten "A" word, falling back on the false high horse of their "journalistic due diligence" and nonexistent "thoroughness and integrity".

Yet we know full well if this had happened to a Democrat candidate, all the regime media would be rising up in one voice calling for the total lockdown of the country and physical purge of all rightwing and 'ideological opponents'.

Alarmingly, the chief of communications for the Secret Service, Anthony Guglielmi, has already posted their official stance on the event which likewise eschews any strongly deterministic language:

Given Trump's rebuffed attempts to beef up security, and given the eyewitness who spotted the shooter and claims to have been ignored by Secret Service agents, the above release looks highly troubling.

A president was literally shot in the face, and the bullet passing near his head was captured on camera. What more do you possibly need to happen for it to be unequivocally deemed an assassination attempt, for crying out loud? This is as unprecedented as the mass gaslighting operation that went into stealing the 2020 election, with its bizarre and highly irregular cessation of vote counts and "sudden spike" of Biden votes at 4am.

We are in uncharted waters.

And what's more, is that this global GLADIO-esque operation is picking up steam. All opponents of the global 'Hydra' deepstate are being eliminated, or attempts toward that end are being made. Populist and anti-imperial Slovak PM Robert Fico was just shot not two months ago. And just today Ukraine's Budanov announced that operations to eliminate Putin have infact been undertaken, but so far have not succeeded:

It's clear things are on the brink for the globalist deepstate as they see no further way to tread water without simply eliminating all ascendant resistance leaders; their backs really are against the wall. We are entering a time of great troubles but also great hope, because given their desperation levels it's clear the final battle is approaching and a grand turning point or realignment is almost upon us.

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Simplicius The Thinker
12 Jul 2024 | 5:23 am

7. Can the West Still Win? Analyzing Claims of Ukraine's Coming Tech Supremacy Over Russia


Welcome to this month's first exclusive paid content. It's another thorough, ~5,400 word article that seeks to answer the question I've been asked by some readers over the past few months: is there a possibility that Ukraine can still achieve victory in this war? I look at the question through the technological lens, as whatever real chance at victory Ukraine may have remains tied into its one and only arguable advantage: the Western-supplied drone and AI tech.

I leave the first ~2,000 words open to free subscribers: if you like what you read, please consider signing up for a paid subscription today, so you don't miss my most hard-hitting exclusive content in the future.

Recently we've talked a lot about Ukraine's ongoing collapse—all the myriad dysfunctions and vulnerabilities of the Kiev regime which are sure to lead to its demise in the next year or so.

But hidden beneath this sometimes overly-rosy picture are the many faults of Russia's own military campaign, as well as the inroads being made by the vast NATO apparatus bringing up the rear of Kiev's operations.

In this report, we'll explore some of those potential threats to Russia's military predominance.

Project White Stork and AI Supremacy

The first and most significant concept to understand is that the West is using the Ukraine war as an unprecedented testbed for the launch of a new era of AI warfare.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4602883-ukraine-needs-one-more-year-to-win-and-congress-can-make-that-happen-now/

What was left unsaid in the more boilerplate offering above was hinted elsewhere by ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt. Him and his cohorts believe that in a year's time, Ukraine could achieve a technological supremacy of AI warfare that would effectively deadlock the war. Note I said deadlock not turn around; nothing Ukraine can do will be able to turn the tide so much as to allow Ukraine to retake lost territories or make Russia surrender. Offensively speaking, Ukraine is as good as done. But the question is, can Russia successfully prosecute advances indefinitely to the point where it achieves all of its battlefield objectives? Or will it get mired down in a technological bog that simply precludes all possibility of breakthrough, a la the stalemates of World War One?

Unlike his previous data-management AI system, Project Maven, Schmidt's latest Project White Stork is specifically geared toward creating AI attack drones—ones which can operate autonomously even in a EW jamming heavy environment. What Schmidt, DARPA, the CIA, and Ukraine are doing is essentially trying to create fully autonomous drone swarm fleets that would turn the battlefield into a nightmarish no-go zone for any "topside" troops. Sure, the rear lines would indefinitely be safe because Russian forces have not only already been adept at building fortified underground structures, but have—by some reports I've read—even begun preemptively adapting to this future threat by taking more and more C2 HQs underground. However, the frontline is a different story. There is simply not enough time to build adequate shelter from mass drone swarms when you advance to capture a new slice of enemy territory.

A recent Forbes piece on drones gives some insight into what's to come:

The underlying technology trends supporting this growth are less about aeronautics or material science and more a product of AI. Visual images are only part of the story, with thermal detection, geolocation tagging, 3D imaging, and volumetric calculations all adding depth to the data retrievable safely and cheaply with aerial drones. Each of these data layers has diagnostic and planning value for operations like yard management, plant maintenance, infrastructure design, and demand planning.

It goes on to explain how AI tests at Los Alamos National Laboratory have created AI applications that can infer large amounts of data from 'sparse' information, recognizing patterns and extrapolating them. For instance, semiconductor fabs estimating the production volumes of their competitors by simply analyzing their parking lots and attendant employee shift patterns.

I've long covered how such AI techniques have already been applied to automating NATO's satellite ISR volumes of Russian strategic targets. For instance, the long-running Project Maven, a precursor to White Stork. The first half of this year has seen a spate of painful losses of rear components like prestige air defense and rare radar systems, all thanks to AI being used to sweep thousands of satellite images to detect and identify hidden systems without the need for large manpower expenditures.

https://www.rt.com/news/599089-nato-ai-russian-aircraft/

For newer readers who missed my long-ago exposé, I urge you to check out this article for a much more detailed look:

Recently it was revealed that an advanced Israeli AI system called 'Lavender' was already being utilized, along with its sibling called 'The Gospel', which sift through data bottlenecks to determine both human and structural targets to be hit.

https://www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/

There are various such startups happening from a multitude of companies on the Ukrainian side. For instance:

French startup Alta Arès is testing an artificial intelligence system with facial recognition of personnel in Ukraine. There are plans to create a complex that can be installed on DJI's" combined-arms " Mavic 3 Pro drones, Mavic 3 Thermal and Matrice 300 RTK and similar ones in order to identify the personnel of the opposite side in automatic mode, analyze and transmit to the control center. It is planned to combine the system with Delta, the main Ukrainian application for combining intelligence data on the battlefield.

For illustrative purposes, recent unspecified tests:

Here's a recent report from a Russian source on some of the secret developments on the Ukrainian side in this vein:

In 2023, the enemy tested a new global digital system for analyzing targets and managing the battlefield - ASMV-in some parts of the front. The system is able to track all combat operations along the front line in real time and is designed to help the command in redistributing forces for combat work along the LBS.

It is reported that this system was fully operational in 2024 and is being used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv direction, which was one of the reasons for the disruption of our offensive potential.

The system is focused on the use of NATO and will soon be deployed along the entire front line, which may increase the stability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in defense at times.

With the advent of the automated control system, all command and control of troops is taken out of the competence of individual commanders, and each of them knows every second not only the combat situation at home and neighbors, but also receives precise instructions on where to shoot, what and what result to achieve. Thus, the subjectivity of the opinion of lower commanders is eliminated from the bottom-up chain, and the commander of the front sector receives more truthful and fast information.

The only way to disrupt the operation of the automated control system is to destroy the enemy's communications equipment - "Starlinks", the cellular network.

The author cites the new system as being responsible for Russia's 'stagnant' Kharkov campaign.

And from another even longer report by Russian military analyst Alexey Zhivov, we have the following—read the frightening text in full to get a detailed first-look at the DARPA-led initiative:

A new type of war: what did we face during the Kharkov operation?

I wrote before, and confirmed from various sources, that the "North" group, after a spectacular "first round," got bogged down in the subsequent "clinch" in Volchansk and Liptsy.

There are two types of reasons that led to this. Ordinary and extraordinary.

We include the usual reasons : the small number of the "North" group, a limited range of tasks, resources and reserves, powerful opposition from the enemy, who pulled reserves of all types of troops into the operation zone and began to use guided Western bombs.

But no one has really understood the extraordinary reasons yet . Basically, they boil down to the fact that the enemy has superiority in low air (attack and reconnaissance drones), while we lack effective trench- and army-type electronic warfare systems.

But it's not that.

Last year, NATO, together with the Ukrainian Armed Forces , began testing a full-fledged system of decentralized battle control based on special multi-layer military programs with artificial intelligence. Let's call it "military Google." DARPA is putting the lion's share of money into multi-domain warfare .

The essence of this military-analytical complex is that it is capable of "seeing the entire front" and processing colossal volumes of combat data per second. This fundamentally changes the picture of a battle with an army that has a classic (and not very reliable) military connection.

Wings, FPV Mavics and guided bombs make up a new type of attack and reconnaissance system. Many storm wounded did not see a single enemy soldier. The captured FPV operator had 50 drones, two Starlinks, and antennas worth 10 million in his landing. It was some grandfather who had been a nightmare for the month of Voznesenovka.

This is a completely different level of battlefield organization.

All units at the front with satellite communications, all artillery and mortar crews, all UAV operators, all aviation, armored vehicles and MLRS are all simultaneously connected to "military Google". All reconnaissance means from tactical drones to American satellites are connected to it.

All movements, rotation routes, the number and composition of our military units, ammunition depots, crowds of people (hello formations), all this is immediately known to the system, and therefore to every serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"Military Google" takes away most of the secondary tasks of military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for digital outsourcing, leaving them only fire control.

The speed of transmission of a control signal in such a system is almost instantaneous, the choice of weapon is always optimal , and the effectiveness of the destruction is monitored by AI, the battle is controlled from a remote information center, which has awareness many times greater than any headquarters of any of our groupings.

Before us is a digital Goliath. And we are analog David, who must use his sling very carefully.

Groups of FPV operators are hiding in dense forests. They are guarded by fortifications with heavy machine guns in the trenches. Artillery is flying into the tanks from all barrels, the air has been fully and constantly scouted, temporary ammunition supply warehouses are the first targets after the boxes, the equipment used for destruction is high-tech, tested and efficient equipment. A delivery distance of five kilometers is an insurmountable distance. In principle, nothing else is needed to disrupt logistics.

Such reports, specifically about the Volchansk direction, have been corroborated by several other well-known, albeit not necessarily totally credible, sources like Romanov_92 and WarGonzo. In Romanov's case, he made big waves days ago with a long cynical video, after having traveled to the Kharkov frontline, which paints a dismal picture on the Russian side.

The auto-translation here is unfortunately exceptionally wonky, but it may at least give some inkling:

Though Romanov is known for his pessimistic slants, aspects of his report should still be noted, given the other concordant sources.

WarGonzo too recently returned from the same front and painted a picture of a changing paradigm of war, thanks to total FPV supremacy. Use auto-translation to read his enlightening article: https://dzen.ru/a/ZoAa9RojxTmqmUx2

An excerpt:

A serious competition (I'd even say very serious) to ground control today is air control, not through traditional aviation, but through the new fpv-reality. That is, now the degree of territory control, at least according to internal feelings, is no longer determined not by the depth to which your assault teams were able to go, but by how far (deep) your kamikaze drones can fly. This limit of control used to be set by artillery (this was a past, sort of art-reality). Where the artillery could reach was the reference point. But the fact is that in effectiveness across a range of parameters (accuracy, ability to objectively monitor, speed of deployment, cost after all) art-reality is already far behind fpv-reality.

Read more

Simplicius The Thinker
10 Jul 2024 | 7:04 am

8. "Bombshell" Report Claims Russian Casualties "Much Higher Than Thought" - Debunked?


Someone said it well yesterday: whenever Ukraine begins badly losing ground on the battlefield, they launch into a new propaganda campaign seeking to deride some major aspect of Russia's operation.

In the recent case, after being subjected to massive strikes crippling Ukraine's power grid and strategic areas, losing village after village each day, pro-UA pundit circles have embarked on a new narrative spree about Russian losses. This has been coordinated closely with Western outlets and institutions which have sought to generate a buzz around a report by MediaZona/The Economist which claims that Russia's losses are actually "much higher than we thought."

Here's the companion piece by Economist which has some different charts for those interested:

https://archive.is/K8se7

First, the new MediaZona report comes at a rather 'convenient' time. You see, just recently Russian losses had actually dropped to a historic low for the conflict, such that even MediaZona appeared to have run cover for this damaging fact by unusually ceasing to even report losses for the past few weeks.

The trends were heading to such low casualty levels that, as seen in their own graphic below, MediaZona for the first time strangely stopped updating them:

Why would that be?

Then, totally out of the blue, they unleash an 'explosive' new 'bombshell' report which was picked up by all the typical propaganda pots, which claims that Russian losses are actually astronomically higher than anyone thought:

And get this, MediaZona arrived at the new figures by altering their previous methodology—how convenient!—to no longer include the actual confirmed KIA, but rather to extrapolate the losses via some new algorithm they derived. They've now discredited themselves by abandoning their original methodology by going out on a limb to include an obscure probate 'will' statistical ledger to estimate how many Russian 'excess deaths' there really might be.

Anyone familiar with how this stuff works will know this savors of precisely the type of desperate lane-change used by institutions when the numbers no longer reflect the approved narrative—see: WHO and their repeated fraudulent reclassifications during the Covid scam to massage the figures. The telltale sign is that the sudden about-face always comes at precisely the turning point where things are going south for them. So when the officially confirmed deaths began to slow to a trickle in the 50k's, what do they do? Simply triple the numbers to 150k and call it a day.

See for yourself:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/07/05/a-new-estimate-from-meduza-and-mediazona-shows-the-rate-of-russian-military-deaths-in-ukraine-is-only-growing

So, we've devised a "new method" that will conveniently now be included in all our future casualty reports as the 'correct' number despite it being triple that of our previous, actually corroborated, numbers. Isn't it amazing how easily they can do this for Russian data but, as NY Times noted last time, when it comes to Ukraine, the casualties are 'difficult' to accurately assess?

In fact, similar independent estimates of Ukrainian "excess mortality" were done in the past which, to my recollection, showed off-the-charts numbers. Here's one glimpse I could find with a cursory search:

https://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/war-ukraine-assessing-human-and-environmental-costs

The problem is, the figures are old because Ukraine stopped officially reporting excess mortality rates—I wonder why? It's certainly odd that Russia—claimed to have the far higher losses—continues reporting theirs, but Ukraine has mysteriously stopped.

This can be seen in charts like the following, geared toward the Covid pandemic, which shows Ukraine's reported figures disappear at precisely the start of the conflict in early 2022:

Keep in mind, Russia's numbers are skyhigh because Western organizations claimed Russia had the world's highest excess deaths during Covid—but notice what happens at the start of the conflict, the numbers nearly flatline.

But what's further interesting is the new MediaZona report uses another adjacent report focused on Wagner to justify their new claims. The most shocking revelation from this report is MediaZona goes on to 'confirm' that a whopping 88% of all Wagner fighters killed were actually ex-cons:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/06/10/new-investigation-shows-that-yevgeny-prigozhin-s-wagner-group-lost-almost-20-000-men-in-the-battle-for-bakhmut-and-paid-their-families-more-than-a-billion-dollars-in-compensation

That means Wagner hardly even lost any "real" fighters, and merely used prisoners as their expendables. A loss is a loss, so I'm not saying this to dispute abstracted loss figures, but rather to make the point that organizations like MediaZona's goal in highlighting all these numbers is obviously to press the narrative that the Russian Army is being attritioned, gradually losing effectiveness, and thus is losing, period. The goal of all of all this is to construct the fable that Ukraine is winning because Russia will soon have no trained soldiers left to fight. But here they admit that the actual trained soldiers were hardly even touched in this case, and nearly 90% were prison labor.

Sure, that's only for Wagner you might say: except that in almost every other major ongoing front, we know the Russian army likewise utilizes Storm-Z as their 'tip of the spear'—for instance, Avdeevka, where Storm-Z comprised perhaps the majority of vanguard assaults, according to reports. Morality issues aside, it clearly indicates the nominal Russian Army is not really the one experiencing attrition.

Naturally, taking Prigozhin at his word, they predictably downplay and whitewash the fact he also revealed Ukraine's losses as 50-60k dead to his 20k in Bakhmut.

The truth is, all circumstantial evidence points to Ukraine having disproportionately massive casualties compared to that of Russia. Just as a quick recent example, a new report yesterday said that an application for 2400 "fallen hero" banners was made in Zhitomir, Ukraine:

Zhitomir has an official population of 262,000. Applying the ratio of 2400 dead out of Zhitomir's 262k population to the entire population of Ukraine (40 million) yields about ~350,000 dead. If you apply it to 30 million, it yields ~250,000 dead.

2400/262,000 = x/39,000,000

x = 359,000

It's fairly compelling that Zhitomir's "fallen hero" death count seems to yield an extrapolation that fits quite well with actual projections for Ukraine's total deaths.

Now, let's see how this works for Russia with a recent estimate:

A small city in Siberia put up a war memorial. Let's see what it can tell us about Russian casualties in Ukraine.

The city in question in Cheremkhovo in the south of Irkutsk Oblast, bordering Buryatia. It's an old stop on the trans-Siberian railroad, with a population of about 80,000 between the city itself (50,000) and the surrounding rural district (30,000). Commemorating local residents fallen in Ukraine, the war memorial features three statues depicting Russian soldiers and two plaques listing 41 names between them. 41 people in a population of 80,000 is 0.051% of the local population killed in action in Ukraine. According to Mediazona's numbers, 1125 residents of Irkutsk Oblast have been killed in Ukraine, from a population of 2.4 million - this is 0.047% of the oblast residents, only slightly lower and easily explainable by somewhat higher enlistment rates in more remote areas like Cheremkhovo versus, say, Irkutsk City. I realize this is one very small data point, but it's yet another drop in the bucket of indicators that Mediazona's count of Russian casualties in Ukraine is largely correct and there is no pool of "hidden casualties" floating around out there, let alone a huge one as constantly alleged by Ukrainian propagandists. The local authorities of an unremarkable Russian city in the middle of Siberia are not going to leave a bunch of names off the war memorial - and enrage surviving family members - because they're trying to hide casualties on nefarious orders from Putin. And if they did we would hear about it, because Russians love nothing better than complaining about official incompetence.

So, we have two distinct data points above, where both happen to statistically correlate within a 92% confidence margin. If we apply the same ratio to the population of Russia, we get: 41/80,000 = x/144,000,000

x = 74,000.

Using Irkutsk oblast, we get:

1125/2,400,000 = x/144,000,000

x = 68,000.

Isn't that interesting, how in both cases the numbers almost exactly match the most realistic set of losses we currently have? 68,000 - 74,000 is in line with MediaZona's confirmed ~60k if you add their original 'projected' algorithm which provides for the assumption that some obituaries will be missed, and therefore losses are likely around 15-20% higher than the confirmed count. And in Ukraine's case, the ratio extrapolation brings them into the 350-400k range which is where many authoritative sources have placed Ukraine's figures, and which almost perfectly mirror the 5:1 ratio that Putin said Russia is inflicting on Ukraine, since ~70k x 5 = 350k.

The math doesn't lie.

And by the way, the reason I italicized the word "recent" before is because this is just another in a long line of examples using recent data—but longtime readers will know I've actually done these calculations several times before, utilizing many other Ukrainian cities and their known cemetery/death counts, and it always amounts to the same conclusion. See here for more.

The fact is, it's only in Ukraine where cemeteries have been growing so large that they've run out of space for the dead, forced to unearth old plots by the thousands. It's only in Ukraine that you even see gigantic cemeteries that are visibly growing from space satellite imagery—there's nothing of the comparable sort in Russia. It's only in Ukraine that there's daily critical discussions about lack of fighting men, where people are being kidnapped from the streets, women are increasingly in talks of being drafted, etc. Why don't you see that in Russia if losses are so high?

They claim it's because: "Russia has 5x the population!" But Ukrainians also claim they're inflicting 5-10x the losses on Russia! Doesn't that negate the population advantage? Shouldn't Russia also be reeling in the way Ukraine is? The head of Ukrainian GUR Vadim Skibitsky himself publicly stated months ago that Russian brigades are at 95% staffing levels—how is that possible if the country is experiencing such levels of losses as these people claim?

Every single data point we have points to Ukraine suffering untold losses, not Russia.

Don't forget the most damning of all: the POW disparity, that is at minimum a proven 5:1 in Russia's favor, with recent revelations Ukraine had ~1300 Russians in captivity to the ~6500 Ukrainians captured by Russia.

MoA had a great thread on all of this a while back, wherein B quotes the following:

Historical war literature tells us that artillery accounts for around 75% of all casualties, and Russia has enjoyed upwards of a 10:1 artillery advantage for the duration of the conflict.

Detractors will claim: "But war theory tells us the attacker always suffers more casualties than defender." Two major problems with that: firstly, this assumes the attacker and defender are equal in strength and power. You think an attacker of 1 million men will suffer far more casualties than the defender of 100 men, for instance? No, they would quickly swarm and kill them probably without even suffering a single casualty.

Likewise, Russia has vast material advantages and, now, even manpower advantages. Incomparable levels of artillery, mortar, air power, long range ballistic and other missile types, etc. The only possible claim Ukraine can lay is for FPV drones, and even that is questionable. Further, FPV drones do not actually inflict large losses comparatively speaking. Not only does it take a large amount of failed drone attacks to get one successful hit, but each successful hit actually produces very little collateral in man or materiel. That's because the drones have so little explosive power, and the little they do have is most often used in cumulative or shaped-charge form, which only inflicts damage on targets directly in front of it in a narrow cone. That means for all of Ukraine's drone prowess, it simply does not compare in the slightest to the destructive power of Russia's conventional armament.

The second refutation of "the attacker always experiences more casualties" is that Ukraine has likewise been the attacker for a large portion of the war. Not the majority, of course, but a large enough slice as to represent a major increase in casualties. If you were comparing only a single battle, then pulling out that old tired mot may be more appropriate. But over the course of the entire conflict, where Ukraine has launched many offensive campaigns that were total bloodbaths, we can only conclude that the aphorism simply doesn't apply here. Just think of the half year senseless deaths in Khrynki on the Dnieper, where the AFU threw insane meat assaults across the river of blood. Then there's last year's "counteroffensive" which, by Russia's estimations, culled over 100,000 AFU soldiers alone. There were many other failed offensives as well. Tallying all those dead, how in one's right mind can one invoke the "attacker suffers more" rule as a blanket generality over the course of the entire conflict?

An addendum to the above is that the pro-UA side will argue: "But artillery disparities have evened up! Ukraine now has as much artillery as Russia!"

Unfortunately, that's not even remotely the case. And this has now been proven beyond the shadow of a doubt in today's second news bombshell, this time from the NATO camp:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-weapons-shells-european-union-eu-war-russia-investigation/33025300.html

That's right, the CIA Radio Liberty project just released a damning new report that finds all European artillery ammunition estimates were grossly exaggerated. Are you surprised?

The findings sent shock waves through the pro-UA world; here's a summary:

🏹 🇪🇺 🏭 EU lied about its artillery production.

— An investigation has found that Europe's artillery shell production for Ukraine is significantly lower than officially claimed.

— European Commission claimed production of 1 million 155mm shells annually as of January 2024.

— EU Commissioner Thierry Breton projected 1.7 million shells annually by end of 2024.

— Investigation suggests actual production is around 550,000 shells annually or even less.

🔶️ Rheinmetall document: EU production at 550,000 shells annually.

🔶️ Estonian defense ministry: 480,000 to 700,000 shells produced in 2023.

🔶️ One industry source: Less than 500,000 shells by end of 2024.

So, while they estimated 1.7M yearly production pace by end of 2024, they're actually hitting less than 500k—almost a mere 25% of their blustered goals.

It's another prediction of mine proven true. Some may recall when they estimated 1M but then revised it down to 600-700k or so, I said that the end result will be far less, because it was clear they were lying to desperately buttress Ukraine's collapse.

Arms companies said the problem is a global shortage of gunpowder and explosives and a lack of cash to fuel the ammunition industry, with governments reluctant to sign long-term contracts.

Meanwhile, the same Western sources have already openly stated Russia is set to reach as high as 4.5 to 5 million shells yearly production by end of the year, with North Korea able to do another 5M. What legs do the arguments have to stand on, which claim that Ukraine can match Russian artillery devastation, and thus, casualty generation?

It's clear there is no possible framework by which to argue that Ukraine has less casualties than Russia.

Ukraine takes out the odd one-man motorcycle rider here, a random straggler there, with lone FPV strikes. Meanwhile, Russia is not only dishing out 5:1 or 10:1 artillery barrage disparities, but even more devastating long range missile strikes, most of which go unreported and unglamorized because there are simply so many.

Yesterday, ex-Aidar deputy commander Ihor Mosiychuk revealed how Russian strikes just destroyed a huge concentration of AFU soldiers in a Vasilkov command post, near Kiev, in the recent missile attacks:

The Russian army destroyed many Ukrainian military personnel by attacking the Kiev air defense headquarters - Mosiychuk. Former Rada deputy Ihor Mosiychuk, accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces' command of concealing the truth about Russian strikes: "They concealed the hit on the Luch Design Bureau, the hit on Vasilkov, where a large number of military personnel were killed, and the Kiev and Kiev region air defense headquarters is located there - the command post," he stated.

Then today, we have a direct first hand source report from the commentator Masno, who himself stays in the region, that a Russian Iskander-M cluster attack devastated a large AFU convoy in Sumy region, inflicting 65-100 casualties:

2 Days ago, I told you about the Ukrainian military shooting down a Russian missile above Sumy. I can now confirm that in fact it was a Russian Iskander that hit a Ukrainian convoy. 2 Independent witnesses told me that Ukrainians suffered heavy casualties. The Russian MOD did release a video about this incident, but I did not link it until now. The person that I spoke to, told me that they can not put into words the carnage of the attack, and will go for psychological treatment. The other person explained that they live in the next village and saw the explosion in the sky and then the efforts to repatriate the wounded. The reason the Ukrainians were able to pass this off as an AD operation was that everyone saw the explosion in the sky, but did not think of it as cluster munitions (airburst warhead). I didn't initially quote the Russian military figures that they released (65), because I thought it was unlikely, however I am now as certain as I can be, that the number is actually higher.

The point is that, these are daily, almost mundane, strikes by Russian long range assets which are wiping out anything from dozens to hundreds of troops at a time. Recall that Zelensky himself said repeatedly that Russia launches thousands of Fabs per month, which translates to hundreds per day along the front, and around 50-80 on single hot zones like Volchansk or west Avdeevka. If each massively powerful Fab attack—particularly given that they've been using the stronger Fab-3000 variety more and more recently—inflicts even two or three casualties each, it would represent 10-20k per month just from that one munition alone, not even counting the vast artillery overmatch.

These are just from the past week alone—and there are many, many more, I just quickly chose a few of the best quality ones for illustrative purposes:

Look at that devastation—there is simply nothing comparable on the Ukrainian side. How many casualties per each of those hits do you think are generated? Now multiply that by Zelensky's own estimate of hundreds launched per day.

No matter how you dice it, there's just no way to argue Ukraine having less casualties than Russia. So, let's just say for argument's sake, even if the new MediaZona report was true, and Russia had upwards of 150k dead—how many dead does that consequently represent for Ukraine? Multiply that by several times. The bigger the number they make up for Russia, the larger their own casualty figure must necessarily be.

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Simplicius The Thinker
7 Jul 2024 | 5:59 am

9. SITREP 7/6/24: Narrative Builds that Putin Desperate to End Conflict - Is He Really?


Orban's visit to Moscow set the European political seraglio aflame this week. The histrionic theatrics were on full performative display as the chorus of captured crones and cucks crowed in limp futility:

For his part, Orban conveyed that Putin is a totally rational negotiator:

But the prevailing narrative that's now swept over the commentariat and MSM-propagand-o-sphere is that Russia is desperately pushing for an end to the conflict. Everywhere you look, Putin is characterized as virtually begging for a ceasefire. News release after news release revolves around Russia nudging toward a cessation of hostilities, with Putin's various speeches and soundbites used to support this.

But how true is it, really?

I'm here to tell you unambiguously: it's total misdirection.

Not once has Putin brought up ceasefires or negotiations—in every case it is others who push him on the topic, and he's merely forced to respond in diplomatic fashion. Just like recently, when Putin peevishly commented on the nuclear issue, when someone had asked why he was pushing the concept of nuclear war so much of late: Putin said it was not him bringing it up, but people continue to ask him about nuclear weapons during Q&As or interviews, and he's forced to respond to their questions. These answers are then quoted out of context by clickbait-happy yellow press outlets to make it seem like Russia is constantly agitating for nuclear war.

Similarly, there has been a steady spate of questions thrown at Putin during every public occasion of the last month or so. Let's run down a few of them for illustrative purposes:

Just a week ago at the SCO meeting in Astana, Putin made several comments about ceasefires and negotiations:

This was twisted to mean that Putin is the one pushing the topic. But what was left out of the truncated clips was the fact that it was actually the SCO members who presented a ceasefire proposal during the meeting—as you can see above.

Afterwards, the press corps continued to question Putin on the topic, to which he was again forced to respond:

Next, after Trump had recently made statements about negotiating an end to the war "on his first day of office", Putin was again misquoted in responding to this. Pundits and press outlets claimed Putin said he "supports Trump's plan to end the war"—which is a total lie:

Firstly, you can see what Putin said for yourself—not only is he once again responding to reporter's questions and not pushing the topic of negotiations himself, he merely demurs by diplomatically implying that Trump's effort is a good thing, but that Putin knows nothing about it:

Once again, it's a big nothingburger twisted to push the narrative that "Putin is close to surrendering!" by 6th columnist commentators and 'analysts'.

This was followed by the biggest bombshell of all, covered in major MSM outlets, which really drilled down in cementing the fabricated narrative:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13596493/Putin-prepared-SHARE-Crimea-Ukraine-according-new-peace-plan-presented-Russia-US.html

It all sounds oh-so authentic splashed across those big flashy pages, with their bold, peremptory majuscules. "It must be true!" the sheep hymn in unison.

But from whence did this 'bombshell' originate? From none other than Ukraine's most cartoonishly disgraced propagandist, the jester Dmitry Gordon:

He's literally the only 'commentator' in Ukraine taken less seriously by Ukrainians than even "Lucy" Arestovich.

From the DailyMail article sourced above:

Leading Ukrainian TV journalist Dmitry Gordon said he had received details of the package from 'our intelligence sources', while Russian Telegram channel Gosdumskaya - which claims insider sources in Moscow - separately reported a similar set of Putin demands.

Gordon is known for his endless lies, including that Russia would collapse this year, that Crimea would have been captured by this summer, and endless other buckets of slop no one takes seriously. His latest should be regarded with the same level of credibility.

If you read the bullet-points of the deal, you'll see how patently absurd it is.

Now again we see Orban coming to Moscow for the specific purpose of a 'peace mission'. It is Orban pushing the initiative, not Russia. But what is Putin supposed to do, decline Orban's visit? Of course, Putin has to keep up appearances to project the image that Russia seeks peace. In reality, Russia's terms have not changed even in the slightest—and you can see proof of this in the various recent statements by Lavrov, Peskov, Zakharova, etc., who all continue to maintain that Russia's fundamental terms must be met.

Legitimny channel underscored this with their received intelligence:

#hearings
Our source reports that Orban held extensive negotiations with Putin, where the Ukrainian crisis took no more than 5% of the time, the rest of the time discussed economic and financial issues.

There will be no peace in Ukraine until the onset of the Armed Forces and elections in the United States take place.
But it is encouraging that many are aware that now the world is much closer than in 2022-23, as players began to pay more attention to business arrangements, which are an important factor that the world is near.

That all being said, we must acknowledge that there has been at least some contradictory messaging from Russia. The most consequential was when Putin stated, just days before the Swiss summit last month, that Russia would call an immediate 'ceasefire' for the purposes of negotiations if Ukraine should pull out all of its troops from the four new Russian territories of Kherson, Zaporozhye, DPR, and LPR as well as pledge to not join NATO. Keep in mind, this appears to mean a temporary ceasefire for the purpose of further negotiations with the above conditions meant as the minimum initial gesture Ukraine would be required to make.

From the June 14th statement:

But the problem is, just two weeks later, Lavrov issued the following statement:

We said: we will always be ready for peace negotiations, but during the negotiations we will not stop the special military operation. We have already had this experience; we have been deceived, as happened in April 2022. - said Lavrov.

So, in being honest, we must admit that there's clearly a conflict in the messaging along this line. Putin was very clear and adamant in stating a ceasefire would be declared—although, if you listen to his speech, it appears what he's describing is a temporary ceasefire for the purposes of facilitating the very conditional withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories—so they are not dishonorably attacked while in the process of withdrawing.

Also, it should be mentioned—in my opinion, at least—that Putin issued the proposal to again maintain the ostensible peace gestures, while in actuality making demands he knew are not possible for Kiev to fulfill. For instance, if you listen closely, he very precisely states that Ukraine must withdraw from the full administrative boundaries of the stated regions as they were drawn before the war. What does that mean? Most importantly, that Ukraine has to totally give up the city of Kherson and all outlying regions.

Russia currently occupies the majority of Kherson Oblast, but Ukraine still squats on the city itself:

The same goes for Zaporozhye Oblast, the AFU would have to vacate the huge capital city of Zaporozhye itself:

This is a major city of nearly 1 million population which ranks as Ukraine's seventh most populous, after Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Dnipro, Donetsk, and Lvov. It has almost double the population of Sevastopol, for crying out loud. What are the chances, do you figure, that Ukraine's power structure would ever allow the total abandoning of such a city?

Now with that in mind, re-evaluate Putin's proposal.

Even ISW's latest report says Putin is not actually serious about any negotiations:

https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1809037226895978726

Also, recall what Putin said here, which sort of undermines his own previous record:

He essentially states that he's not interested in any 'temporary' ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to rearm, akin to the Minsk protocols and such. We now know he would only be open for a major, total paradigm-shifting end to the war that would necessarily include the reformulation of the entire European security architecture.

And in fact, in his new meeting with Orban, he again plainly cited this:

Thus, the way I'm understanding his earlier statement is that should Ukraine accede to demands in removing all military forces from the four regions, Russia would abide by a temporary ceasefire as an act of honor to allow the assets to withdraw. Then, Putin would likely evaluate how amenable Ukraine was to true negotiations of the other major conditions before deciding whether to recommence hostilities. But this is only my interpretation of the slightly contradictory portion of that matter.

The other important matter to remember is that Chief of Staff of the neo-Nazi Azov brigade, Bogdan Krotevich, just threatened Zelensky for even remotely considering any 'peace' options.

The chief of staff of "Azov" threatens those who advocate for stopping the war at the front line

He wrote on X/Twitter:

No peace without victory. Victory means not a single Russian soldier on Ukrainian territory. We will not leave this war to our descendants, and you won't either, because if you try, it will be bad for you and for them. If this is a "test," don't even think about it. I wrote this calmly.

It would be better to call the brigade commanders for a meeting, give Azov Western weapons, create divisions, and place battle-hardened brigade commanders like Radis in charge. Disband the Operational Tactical Units and reduce the number of generals in the troops—that's your plan for peace through victory.

Krotevych did not specify what "test" he was referring to, but judging by the context, he meant a statement by a political analyst close to Zelensky's office, Fesenko, who said that the war could be stopped and the territories "returned later."

Ukrainian media already reported that tensions had escalated in Ukraine between the authorities and pro-Western activists, as well as between the military leadership and soldiers from the high-profile units of the Armed Forces and the National Guard, created based on nationalist organizations.

As we had written about long ago, Zelensky is held at the point of a sword when it comes to prosecuting the remainder of the conflict. Thus, he's effectively trapped between rock and hard place given that pressures to capitulate will at one point become unbearable, while the opposing pressure—at the pain of death—to continue on will squeeze him in.

And then there's this final analysis which gets to the root of things, and jibes with the slant of my thesis above. In essence, it propounds the idea that Putin is playing spoiler with all the peace affectations in order to paint Zelensky as a warmonger hellbent on continuing the conflict:

Kremlin playing diplomatic party to discredit Ukraine

Visits of Orban (Putin's chief friend in Europe) should whiten the reputation of the Russian leader and show him « as a peacemaker », who has enough responsibility to complete the bloody war.

Ukraine, which has abandoned the conditions of the Hungarian leader, now looks almost the only initiator of the continuation of hostilities. The leaders of Turkey, India, and China have long been in solidarity with the position of the Russian Federation. And Orban's perfomance gave them another argument in favor of supporting Putin.

If the presidential chair for the Democrats is maintained, Russia may begin a new large phase of the war, starting from Kiev's refusal to go to peace talks.

In the event of the arrival of Trump, we will find a probable contract that will suit everyone except Ukraine.

Once again, the Zelensky team demonstrates aerobatics in diplomacy, helping the enemies of Ukraine to advance for their geopolitical goals…

The one line above gives us a glimpse of a potential resolution to the conflict:

In the event of the arrival of Trump, we will find a probable contract that will suit everyone except Ukraine.

It is possible that it will go down as follows:

Trump takes office and uses his promised battering ram of threats against NATO to bend the alliance to his will—by threatening to defund them, or entirely withdraw the U.S., which would effectively destroy it.

https://kyivindependent.com/allies-fear-biden-may-struggle-to-defeat-trump-express-concern-about-ukraine-politico-reports/

Using this, he could potentially force Europe into accepting this new European security architecture that Putin has been looking for, which would be a new sort of Westphalian system of guarantees. Along what lines would the Ukrainian conflict itself be resolved?

Firstly, Putin would push the issue—as he has done—that Zelensky is illegitimate and no guarantee can be signed with him. This will force power struggles within Ukraine, with U.S. pressures exacerbating them, that would result in the ouster of Zelensky, who would be replaced by someone more amenable to both Putin and Trump. This would of course be aided by the earlier-mentioned nationalist groups who would be coming to eliminate Zelensky anyway. Some of the more difficult territorial issues would likely be resolved via a deferment as had already been discussed at times in the past; i.e. Ukraine can legally lay claim to certain things after a given time period of 15-20 years, and things of that nature.

If any of the above runs into roadblocks then the grind will continue until Ukraine loses more and more.

The converse to this is the argument that Russia cannot leave Ukraine to be under any circumstances, and must continue at the least until the capture of Kharkov, Odessa, or even Kiev and the entire state. This is still a possibility, as I said, particularly given any of the above conditions were to collapse. However, if all the pieces of diplomacy fall into place by next year, with all the right leaders successfully elected and taking charge, then the pressure for diplomacy could be too great for Putin to turn down, particularly if the deal is mostly favorable to Russia as in the case of the example above.

Recall that one of Russia's stated conditions for any peace is also the lifting of all sanctions. Imagine all 20,000+ sanctions being lifted from the most heavily sanctioned country on earth. There are two possibilities:

  1. The Russian economy explodes into unimaginably utopian conditions, shooting to #3 in the world within a few years

  2. Likely the more probable: the global cabal with a deep ancestral hatred for Russia never allows such a thing, and as such any treaty on these terms would be unrealistic to begin with

How do you think it will happen? Here's Europe's take:

And an interesting poll revealing the sentiment of the Ukrainians themselves—that the majority would now prefer to lose land but retain sovereignty rather than the reverse:

Very bad numbers for propaganda, which is trying to convince everyone of the need to fight to the end, despite the casualties and losses.

45% of Ukrainians agree to the loss of territories occupied by the Russian Federation in exchange for the "freedom of choice" to join NATO and the EU, maintaining the army and independence, a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations

▪️26% would prefer to return the occupied territory, but agree to demilitarization, neutral status and the inability to join the EU and NATO.

▪️29% of respondents do not know what is best.

The AFU continues to experience massive problems on the front, with units increasingly openly screeching via public forums about how everything is collapsing around them.

Some examples from the past day or two.

There's been a lot of talk about this Ukrainian unit, which has been confirmed as fully authentic by pro-UA commentators:

"Friends please spread the word. We now have a big problem with 206 battalion. It is being ground into powder. A lot of 200 and 300. Cool fighters are thrown as meat..."

Another Ukrainian soldier expresses his glum fatalism:

Jihad Julian comments on the recent Toretsk breakthroughs and continued Vovchansk advances by the Russian forces:

In a new ridiculed video Zelensky claims Ukraine has over a dozen brigades in reserves, but…they have no weapons:

That's like the Wehrmacht in 1945 saying "we have the desire to win but…".

He himself notes the brigades are understaffed. Secondly, recent leaks state much of the newly generated "reserves" are being called "ghost brigades" or ghost units, given that they're only 'brigades' on paper, and are in fact just a ragtag hodgepodge of broken companies, or battalion or two.

German MEP from the AfD party, Maximilian Krah, says it best here:

MEP Maximilian Kra:

What do I even expect? More Ukrainian losses, no matter how cynical it may sound. But we are at war. And the casualties are so great that we are approaching the threshold of 30% of the population capable of military service. There is an international rule that if you lose 30% of the population capable of military service, the war ends. For two reasons.

Firstly, the population no longer believes in victory, but wants to save lives. Politicians say that if we sacrifice even more young people now, the survival of our state will be at risk because the population is running out. My guess is that Ukraine will face conscription problems this year, and therefore domestic approval for the war will drop. Secondly, the military superiority of the Russians is so great that even you understand that there is no chance of victory. In this regard, pressure is increasing to somehow reach an agreement within Ukraine.

On the other hand, the West, based on its logic, cannot agree to peace, because this will be a defeat for it. Therefore, they will try to continue the war at least until the American presidential elections. But once this American presidential election is over, there will be a window for peace negotiations.

The other major focus continues to fall onto Ukraine's electrical grid, with a lot of discussions now occurring in Ukraine itself.

Heres' Ukrainian journalist and 'security expert' Maria Avdeeva reporting from her Kharkov flat:

Her comments section is filled with other anecdotal corroborations:

More news:

And terrible news from Krivoy Rog:

Press release from ArcelorMittal Krivoy Rog today. Finally, it seems that the degradation of the power grid has reached a critical level. They say they cannot operate at current capacity if they are mandated to import 80% of their electricity, due to power costs.

One report from Legitimny states that if destruction of the power grid continues, Ukraine will be placed into permanent 8-12-hour-per-day blackout for the next several years:

Our source reports that if the war continues until the spring of 2025, then problems in the Ukrainian energy sector will be solved only in the next ten years and subject to billions of investments, and Ukrainians will have to live in a terrible deficit of e / e for 2024.25.26 years with constant blackouts of 8-12 hours a day.

Also, the source, based on expert forecasts, indicates that in the next 3 years the price of e / e for the population of Ukraine will rise in price by 300-400%.
Now the price is 4.32 UAH per 1 kW, and by 2026 it will rise to 15 hryvnia per 1 kW / h.

The next 3 years in the country will be « black winter », and the consequences for housing and communal services infrastructure can be disastrous.

Even Rob Lee is forced to cover the impending catastrophe:

Some sundry bits and bites:

A U.S. Marine general was found "dead":

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/usmc-general-mullen-found-dead/

Interestingly, according to reports he was just in Ukraine. Several days ago were reports of U.S. flights out of Poland—the typical ones that carry Western mercenaries out after Russian strikes. Coincidence?

Now his death is being hushed up:

When asked, NCIS did not disclose the manner of Mullen's death.

There has been a spate of Russian long range strikes, including ones on deployment points—several of them on Odessa recently, for instance. There's good chance this general was visited by Dr. Ken Zhal for his final checkup.

If things weren't bad enough for the U.S., another defense plant blew up, which reportedly is in the business of Javelin production, amongst other rockets:

Commander of the Ukrainian 116th Brigade perished in the Kupyansk direction:

And another well-known AFU officer has become quite dejected:

I'll leave you with this poignant last statement from Russian analyst Older Eddy:

We will say one thing. The more power and its dogs drive the Ukrainian people to fight, the larger the collapse will be. At some point, the front will simply sprinkle, as 80% of the army will consist of those who do not want to fight, or tired, or disappointed.
It's like building a house, but making concrete for walls and foundations according to the formula of 12 bags of sand for 1 bag of cement. For some time it will stand idle, and after that « will begin to fall asleep », and if there is a minimum « earthquake », it will simply collapse. So in the situation with the Zemobilization and the Armed Forces.

This is a time bomb.

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Simplicius The Thinker
5 Jul 2024 | 7:34 am

10. Regime Media Utters the Un-utterable


It's quite shocking what's happening in American politics right now, but only because processes long buried 'behind the scenes' have come to the forefront like never before. The Democrats and establishment in general are panicking amid the crisis to extricate Biden from his roost. Listen to the frank discussion in the regime media below, which is eye-opening in its blunt admissions:

Meanwhile, the Economist debuted another stunning headline and cover:

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/07/04/why-biden-must-withdraw

Uncannily they admit in the opening sentence to the coverup they themselves were party to for the duration of the stolen term:

Recall their earlier coverage:

The headlines now appearing are more shocking than ever—what would have passed for The Onion or Babylon Bee is now standard fare at the top regime corporate news agencies. From CNN:

There are two telling revelations from recent events: the first is how the regime is using the current political crisis merely to preserve its own power, and find ways to save face and shield itself, rather than even remotely acknowledging the utter damage being done to the country and its people by what they've wrought. This includes the national security damage of having a clearly cognitively disabled 'leader' in power, whom they've protected up to now. And then there's the fact they've compromised years worth of American development, letting society wither and degrade at the hands of a clearly demented sockpuppet. The country has been utterly wracked by historic crises, from hyperinflation to crime and drugs, rampant illegal migrant invasion, and more—and this corrupt self-serving and self-saving political class has knowingly enabled a puppet to preside over it all, who was mentally incapable of doing anything about it.

The second mother of all revelations is the now openly verbalized reality that an oligarchic 'donor class' and deepstate actually run the country. Last time we saw Axios make the blatant acknowledgment that Biden's rule is at the behest of an oligarch class. Now, everywhere you turn are headlines describing the 'donor class' as scrambling into secret conclaves to discuss some coordinated strategy on shooing off their formaldehyde-preserved commander-in-chief.

Over and over we hear the "donors" have decided this, or are going to do that—and it becomes clear that the so-called 'Democracy' we've been bamboozled with is a figment, and in fact is nothing more than a kind of auction for the elites, where the highest-bid puppets are given privilege to entertain billionaires like Ari Emanuel—the Democrat 'megadonor' who's not only brother to chief Obama-handler Rahm Emanuel, but son to arch terrorist Benjamin Emanuel of the infamous Israeli Irgun terror group:

The fact that a secret camarilla of donors (read: billionaire oligarchs) is meeting behind closed doors to decide on the presidential candidacy of the United States tells you everything you need to know about how the country actually functions, who holds the real power, and whose interests are really at the center of all political decisions.

Today's New York magazine's story surprisingly covered the orchestrated smokescreen while making some shocking admissions:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/conspiracy-of-silence-to-protect-joe-biden.html

Read the hair-raising excerpts below, which first describe Biden's deterioration:

The almost too-big-to-ask question which has loomed over America like an extinction-level asteroid is consequently floated: Who is actually in charge of this country?

Then comes another unthinkable: years of QAnon level conspiracies are openly being validated on the pages of a mainstream corporate rag:

"There has to be a secret group of high-level government leaders who control Biden and who will soon set into motion their plan to replace Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee."

Years of covering for the cabal has finally come full circle and all the most uncomfortable—and patently dangerous—questions are now being publicly asked.

In fact what the article details is in some parts a long-standing streak of Normalcy Bias amongst the intelligentsia, too horrified to utter into words—or even admit to themselves—what they were witnessing:

When they discussed what they knew, what they had seen, what they had heard, they literally whispered. They were scared and horrified. But they were also burdened. They needed to talk about it (though not on the record). They needed to know that they were not alone and not crazy. Things were bad, and they knew things were bad, and they knew others must also know things were bad, and yet they would need to pretend, outwardly, that things were fine. The president was fine. The election would be fine. They would be fine. To admit otherwise would mean jeopardizing the future of the country and, well, nobody wanted to be responsible personally or socially for that. Their disclosures often followed innocent questions: Have you seen the president lately? How does he seem? Often, they would answer with only silence, their eyes widening cartoonishly, their heads shaking back and forth. Or with disapproving sounds. "Phhhhwwwaahhh." "Uggghhhhhhhhh." "Bbbwwhhheeuuw." Or with a simple, "Not good! Not good!" Or with an accusatory question of their own: "Have you seen him?!"

And again, that fateful, smoldering question (emphasis my own):

Those who encountered the president in social settings sometimes left their interactions disturbed. Longtime friends of the Biden family, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity, were shocked to find that the president did not remember their names. At a White House event last year, a guest recalled, with horror, realizing that the president would not be able to stay for the reception because, it was clear, he would not be able to make it through the reception. The guest wasn't sure they could vote for Biden, since the guest was now open to an idea that they had previously dismissed as right-wing propaganda: The president may not really be the acting president after all.

It goes on to describe what in effect is literally the live ventriloquism of a sitting American president by a bureaucratic deepstate (of mostly the 'dual-passport' variety, it seems. Is that another "rightwing conspiracy theory", or are those all being quietly written off now?):

Others told me the president was becoming increasingly hard to get ahold of, even as it related to official government business, the type of things any U.S. president would communicate about on a regular basis with high-level officials across the world. Biden instead was cocooned within mounting layers of bureaucracy, spoken for more than he was speaking or spoken to.

An NY Times article about Biden's meeting with a roundtable of Democrat governors gives us another eye-opening look:

https://archive.ph/s7KPf

Read the highlighted below:

Worry not, folks—it's only Biden's rotten brain that is totally gone, his health is fine. After all, according to top Ukrainian propagandists, it was a Russian brain-beam responsible for Biden's mental hiccups:

Relieved yet?

These wider developments are something now increasingly obvious across the world, embedded into the tactics of the global establishment:

The only thing on the regime's mind is self-preservation of its power, nothing else matters.

In fact, the best theory proposed thus far for why they pulled the rug from under Biden just now is the establishment was hoping to prolong the charade of Biden's 'competence' to buy themselves time to derail Trump's campaign via the criminal convictions ploy. They had hoped that piling felonies on him would tarnish Trump's ratings such that Biden would have nothing to worry about, and the act could continue on unchallenged. But since plan A didn't work, and they realized Trump may be here to stay, the only thing left was plan B: throw Biden under the bus and swap him for someone that can go blow-for-blow against Trump without soiling his or her pants.

With each wantonly corrupt step, the Democrats are undermining the nation's already-fragile trust in 'Democracy'. People are becoming awakened like never before to the naked sham of the country's political process. It has been exposed as nothing more than a moneyed pageant for a detached class of elites, unbeholden to citizens' interests or any principles—moral or otherwise.

On that note, Happy 4th! Drink up, for it could be the last.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

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