Simplicius The Thinker

1. SITREP 4/22/25: Ukraine Begs 30% of Bundeswehr Stock to Survive

The peace push charade continues on like a kind of low-rent traveling circus, setting down its ramshackle tents in some new backwater hole each night. This week it's word that Trump is pushing Ukraine to acknowledge—at minimum—Crimea as Russian, with Ukraine reportedly ready to "de facto" give up all current Russian-controlled territories:

As part of the conflict settlement, Kiev is apparently ready to give up 20% of the territories, as long as this is considered recognition "de facto" and not "de jure," the New York Post writes, citing an unnamed senior official of the American administration.

But the biggest reach came from reports that Trump intends to placate Kiev by proposing that US "takes control" of the Russian Zaporozhye nuclear reactor, turning it into a kind of neutral international zone. What do you say—does that move us closer or farther from a realistic settlement of the conflict?

In short, it's about as absurd as Russian troops being allowed to take management of the Three Mile Island reactor in exchange. One wonders from where Kellogg and friends keep fishing out such cocked-up cockamamie claptrap. Of course, Zelensky reportedly won't even go as far as that, which means the latest attempts are again another bust, as expected:

Some might muse whether it's all still part of a choreographed act between the Russian and US sides, in slowly exposing Zelensky as the problem and chief obstacle to peace, as was hypothesized about Putin's surprise Easter ceasefire offer. In that framework, Zelensky would have fallen into the trap with his new statements reported today that not only will Ukraine not recognize Crimea, but that Ukraine is "open to negotiations with Russia" only after a ceasefire is reached.

"[Crimea] is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine. We have nothing to talk about on this topic – it is outside our Constitution," Zelensky said.

Unelected mandarin Kallas echoed the sentiment:

'The European Union will never recognize Crimea as part of Russia' — EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas

The ploy to push Russia into an unconditional ceasefire in order to quickly bring in UK and French troops remains obvious to see: it's the only way to introduce troops without them being deemed "party to the conflict" by the international community.

Senior administration officials alluded to this with 'new details' about European peacekeepers that will not be called a 'peacekeeping' force, but rather a "resiliency force":

While the terms are not yet set in stone as Kyiv and Moscow internally discuss the plan, one senior administration official told The Post they may include deploying European forces to Ukraine should an end to the war and cease-fire be reached.

How such a thing is even being floated is difficult to fathom, given that Russian officials have several times intimated that foreign troops in Ukraine without Russian approval would be a red line. There is a nuance here: Putin himself proposed a kind of UN-led transitional government for Ukraine to facilitate new presidential elections, that would presumably include a coalition of troops to keep the peace. Putin used Yugoslavia, East Timor, and New Guinea as his examples—but the implication is clearly that this would only work under Russia's direct approval. Britain and the UK famously elocuted that "Russia has no right to dictate" who can put troops in "sovereign Ukraine", so long as Ukraine allows it; thus the impasse.

Trump puffed out a hastily-scratched-together missive that appears to capture his real intent on ending the war—a feast of corporate profiteering for everyone!

Apparently, just like in Gaza, it's not the killing that ever concerned Trump, it's the 'tragic' lack of exploitation of raw fungible mammon!

Now the Financial Times claims that Putin told Witkoff he's ready to freeze the conflict on current lines, and even relinquish claims to the remainder of uncaptured territories—according to 'insider sources', as per usual.

The Russian president told Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, during a meeting in St Petersburg earlier this month that Moscow could relinquish its claims to areas of four partly occupied Ukrainian regions that remain under Kyiv's control, three of the people said.

This reeks of extremely desperate late-stage face-saving by the blob given that these regions are now enshrined in the Russian constitution and can no longer be parceled off in such a frivolous manner. Peskov, for what it's worth, immediately shot the article down in a statement, implying it's a "fake" and should not be trusted.

The fact is, the US continues to pump up the narco-regime all the while wheeling and dealing for Trump's "fortune"-granting ceasefire bonanza. A new report sheds light on how US arms deliveries to Ukraine—when averaged out—appear to be going nearly as strong as ever:

Despite public rhetoric and media speculation, the change in the American administration has not yet had a significant impact on the volume of military supplies to Ukraine.

These volumes can be roughly estimated and compared by the number of heavy transport aircraft flights in the interests of the Pentagon to Rzeszow, Poland. If we take into account military transport C-17 and C-5, as well as chartered civilian cargo Boeing 747 and Douglas MD-11F, we get the picture shown in the graph above.

Abnormal surges in deliveries are clearly visible in preparation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in 2023 and late 2024 due to the Biden administration's concerns about the cessation of deliveries after Trump takes office.

If we exclude these anomalies, then on average 35 such flights arrived in Rzeszow per month in 2023-2024. And in February-April 2025, despite a week-long pause in March, there will be an average of 25 flights per month. Over the 19 days of April, 20 flights have already arrived.

©kargin_version -neinsider

Zelensky has committed himself to prolonging the war as long as possible as that is the only outcome which ensures his political survival—particularly given the new extension of martial law just signed:

Now Ukraine's permanent representative to the UN Andriy Melnyk has requested for Germany to cough up a whopping 30% of the Bundeswehr's treasure to ensure Ukraine's continued survival. With this amount, he says, Ukraine can continue fighting on to 2029:

In the above Welt piece written by Melnyk himself as an 'open letter', he addresses 'the Chancellor-designate' directly. It begins in dramatic fashion:

Dear Friedrich Merz, I know that it is not customary for an ambassador to address an open letter to the Chancellor-designate of Germany. However, I am not writing to you as a diplomat, but as a human being and a European, as a neighbor and a Christian. For we are living in unusual, dark times. War is raging in Europe. A barbaric war that Russia has unleashed. People are afraid. People want peace. Especially the Ukrainians, who are making enormous sacrifices every day. And the politicians are desperately looking for solutions to put an end to this madness, but are unable to find any.

He goes on to articulate that only Germany can become the 'beacon of hope and freedom' of the world—or some such—and outlines the steps Merz needs to take to ensure Ukraine's survival:

Firstly, a coalition decision should be made to finance arms deliveries to Ukraine to the tune of at least 0.5 percent of GDP (21.5 billion euros per year) or 86 billion euros by 2029. To take the wind out of your critics' sails, a credit agreement could be considered. This would be a fair solution and at the same time a huge investment in Germany's own security. These funds should be invested in the production of state-of-the-art weapons in both Germany and Ukraine.

So, first is a paltry €86 billion euros for defense purposes—not a huge ask, right?

Well, that's just the icing—he then demands another separate €372 billion, and an additional €181 billion on top of that, just in case:

Secondly, initiate and implement the same 0.5 percent scheme at EU level (372 billion euros by 2029) and within the framework of the G7 (an additional 181 billion if the USA is not - yet - included). This mega-commitment of 550 billion euros for Ukrainian defense over the next four years would be a huge warning signal to Putin that you, Mr. Merz, and our allies are serious about helping Ukraine. That will impress Putin.

The €550 billion "mega-commitment" is meant to "impress Putin". Well, it's certain to impress Putin, there's no question about that. He will undoubtedly be impressed by the monumental ineptitude, fraud, and profligacy of a dying order intent on destroying the futures of its own citizens—how can anyone not be?

He goes on to demand the immediate delivery of 150 Taurus missiles, which, according to previous estimates, could be the total sum of operable stock in the entire German stockpile.

But the next demand takes the cake, and is one of the most mind-bogglingly brazen ones ever publicly made by an ambassador to another country; it simply must be read in full:

Fourthly, in order to deploy the Taurus systems efficiently, a coalition decision should be made to hand over 30 percent of the available German fighter jets and helicopters from the German Air Force to Ukraine. That would be around 45 Eurofighters and 30 Tornados, 25 NH90 TTH helicopters and 15 Eurocopter Tigers. This step could also be carried out as part of an all-encompassing loan - a loan and lease law that could be passed by the Bundestag. The main thing is that it is delivered quickly. The same 30 percent rule could also be introduced for other weapons systems from the army's inventory in order to release the following critical deliveries: 100 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, 115 Puma and 130 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 130 GTK Boxers, 300 Fuchs armored transport vehicles, 20 MARS II rocket artillery systems with ammunition. At the same time, orders were to be placed for a massive modernization of the Bundeswehr in order to quickly replace the weapon systems supplied.

Seriously, read that again: the madman literally wants 30% of the entire German Armed Forces, including its air force. He might as well ask for Germany to take over the fight entirely for Ukraine, a sort of midgame substitution. If that wasn't bad enough, his last request is for Germany to help seize the 'frozen $200B of Russian funds'. The only realistic part of the slapstick appeal is his paralleling of Christ rising from the dead on Easter to the type of "miracle" Ukraine is in dire need of.

A quick summary put together by someone else for those who want a quick rundown:

🇺🇦 Hoping for a miracle on Easter: Kiev asked its allies for 550 billion euros to continue the war.

Kiev has big requests again. Ukraine's representative to the UN, Andriy Melnyk, has published a list of "wishes" for Western allies — from future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to the G7 leaders.

The demands were published in Die Welt:

1.Transfer 30% of the Bundeswehr's arsenal to the Ukrainian Armed Forces — including 45 Eurofighter fighters, 100 Leopard-2 tanks, 300 Fuchs armored personnel carriers, dozens of helicopters, multiple launch rocket systems, and armored vehicles.

2.Enshrine in law the allocation of 0.5% of Germany's GDP to aid Ukraine — 86 ​​billion euros by 2029.

3.Convince the G7 and the European Union to allocate 0.5% of GDP — 550 billion euros in aid over 4 years.

4.Confiscate 200 billion euros of Russian assets and guarantee Ukraine's accession to NATO and the EU.

5.And, of course, to transfer 150 Taurus missiles.

Melnik admitted that he "has no illusions" and that his list will cause discontent in Berlin. But, according to him, during Easter "we can hope for a miracle".

The fact is, depending how you count it, Germany has likely already provided upwards of 30% of its armaments from certain categories to Ukraine. For instance, several dozen Leopard 1s and 2s out of 200-300 total, the same goes for air defense.

Now as of this writing the Telegraph has reported another kind of 'leaked' Trump plan for the cessation of hostilities, which boils down to the same old frosted Kelloggs concoction:

- (Immediate) Ceasefire now

- DIRECT Ukraine-Russia talks

- Kiev DROPS NATO ambitions

- Crimea recognized as RUSSIA

- Ukraine signs mineral deal

- US lifts ALL anti-Russia SANCTIONS

- US-Russia ENERGY cooperation

Specifically, it states that all Russian sanctions would be lifted—at least by the US—and a new era of US-Russian cooperation on energy would begin; i.e. "making a FORTUNE!" as per Trump's earlier ejaculation.

Unfortunately, that still does not address any of Russia's core conditions.

Let's switch to some battlefield updates.

The largest gains by far of the past week have come about in the southern Konstantinovka area. The cap came today when Russian forces captured Sukha Balka, seen in this video gelocated at 48.3220217, 37.7653219:

68th Tank Regiment together with the 20th Motorized Rifle Regiment wave the Russian flag confirming full control over Sukhaya Balka next to Valentinovka

To understand the nature of the advance, here is a timelapse from Ukraine's DeepState maps over the course of the past week and a half or so—Sukha Balka is seen at the southern edge of the LoC:

And in fact the above doesn't even record the full captures, as Ukrainian map-makers are infamous for updating Russian wins extremely late.

This advance is significant because it's slowly relieving the flanks of the long-embattled Toretsk, which will eventually create a powerful unified front against the stronghold of Konstantinovka itself.

There were many other nibbling advances in Seversk direction, Orekhove in Zaporozhye, and Velyka Novosilka directions, of which even Rob Lee wrote about:

In Kupyansk Russian forces took new positions on the 'beachhead' across the Oskil river around here:

South of there in the Lyman direction Russian forces again advanced:

Here's a wider view with Lyman circled for reference:

And here's a close up of Nove (circled in red above) to show how Russian troops have entered the town:

A write up from a Russian military channel with more details as to the units operating on this front. It was written about a week or two ago before Nove was captured, so it's slightly out of date but gives good unit descriptions for those interested in following along:

The other big capture was the Gornal monastery in the Kursk region, which is virtually the last holdout of Ukrainian forces on Kursk territory:

Note the area not shaded in red above near the white line representing the Russia-Ukraine border. This is the last remaining small tract of land Ukraine holds in Kursk. A wider view:

The red is the last remaining Ukrainian area of control, while the yellow shows the areas of Sumy region that Russian forces have captured and now hold, with the white line being the border.

This quick report gives us an insightful glimpse at the kinds of forces Ukraine is throwing at the border region—it concerns a group of half a dozen or so captured POWs on the border today:

Yesterday, 5 Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters surrendered in one of the areas, including one girl as an assault soldier. The age of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters who surrendered varies from 18 to 23 years.

The Russian Aerospace Forces is increasing strikes on concentrations of Ukrainian Armed Forces in the adjacent territory in the Sumy and Kharkov regions.

A few last items:

Arestovich explains to Zelensky precisely what will happen if he doesn't take the current deal:

Simple enough, no?

—

Russian moto-forces practice a novel way of bypassing concertina wire:

—

General Wesley Clark correctly assesses the end game of the war:

Odessa is the key to Russia's victory. - Former NATO commander.

The capture of Odessa will become a symbol of the end of the war and de facto victory of Russia, said the former commander of NATO's allied forces in Europe, General Wesley Clark. According to him, the city is a strategic target of Vladimir Putin.

—

The Houthis have announced the third downing of an American MQ-9 Reaper drone just this week alone. Sources claim this is the 22nd Reaper destroyed by Houthis since October 7th, which is somewhere in the vicinity of 10% of the entire Reaper inventory of the US Armed Forces.

It brings up renewed arguments of how 'obsolete' heavy UCAVs are in modern warfare. But interestingly, Russia's own usage of these platforms has increased of late, as Ukraine's air defenses have slowly depleted. Today alone we have two videos of the Forpost being used.

The first is a strike against a Ukrainian field command post in Novodymtrovka at the below coordinates:

#UkraineRussiaWar
Place: #Novodmytrivka

Date: ~22.04.2025
Coordinates: 50.757129,35.372044

Description: Russian Forpost UAVs destroyed three temporary deployment points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Novodmytrivka.

Interestingly, that is on the Sumy border, where these UCAV platforms have been operating in the largest quantity.

The second video is from Ukraine's Magyar drone unit, which shows a Russian Forpost being attacked by an FPV, which at the least proves they are being widely used:

Ukrainian interceptor drone takes down Russian "Forpost" UAV at 4 km altitude. The Forpost is a large UAV, similar in function to a Bayraktar, capable of both reconnaissance and carrying a combat payload—typically two missiles or other munitions for striking ground targets.

By the way, I'm not at all convinced the above strike actually disabled the Forpost. When you consider the actual size of this platform you'll note that a tiny FPV would have to get a very precise hit to actually take it down, as it doesn't have the raw explosive power to do so and relies on the accuracy of its very narrow cumulative jet—if so equipped:

It should also be noted the Forpost in question was armed with Kab-20 laser-guided bombs and was thus not simply outfitted for reconnaissance and the like:

At the same time Russia's Rostec has announced a 'friend or foe' system for Russian UAVs:

👁 Rostec has begun testing the "friend or foe" system for UAVs.

The holding company "RosEl" has started testing the drone identification system. The equipment has already passed the stage of testing for electromagnetic compatibility with the rest of the "stuffing" of the carrier drones.

How does the system work?

The key element of the new system is a radar identifier installed in the drone. At the first stage, the equipment will work with stations using the Russian state identification system. Such devices are used, for example, in aviation to distinguish friendly equipment from enemy equipment.

What is the use of this?

The equipment operates on the "friend or foe" principle and automatically marks friendly drones at an altitude of up to 5 km and a distance of up to 100 km from the radio interrogator.

"The transponder is lightweight - no more than 90 g - and has low power consumption. This allows the product to be integrated into a wide range of civilian and special-purpose drones, including agricultural or geodetic quadcopters," Rosel said.

One of the prototypes will be tested on the Geodesy-401 UAV manufactured by Geoscan. This is a complex for aerial photography in urban conditions and quarries.

It is planned to begin production of the pilot batch of the identification system in 2025.

rostecru

—

Lastly, Germany proudly announced a new powerful military package to Ukraine days ago. But already they are heavily backtracking, with much of the aid now reduced or postponed, as described here.

From the article:

But now things are changing! Yesterday evening, the company apparently felt compelled to change large parts of the online communication on the package. After editing, it is clear that a significant proportion of the new weapons systems and ammunition announced in the package had long been publicly promised or will not be delivered as originally promised.

In my eyes, this is a real communication disaster!

Going into detail, for instance, they note that out of the 4 promised IRIS-T air defense systems, only one can actually be realistically delivered, with the rest postponed to 2026—and likely beyond, we can guess. Likewise, the majority of actual missiles for this system are not expected until 2026 or later.

In summary, it can be said that, despite the official announcement, there will be no main battle tanks, no infantry fighting vehicles and only a single IRIS-T SLM fire unit, in which two additional IRIS-T SLS launchers are integrated, in addition to the weapon systems already promised this year.

Same old European PR bait-and-switch.

Judging by the above, what do you reckon are the chances Merz is able to fulfill ambassador Melnyk's wild extravagances?

I guess a last resort shopping trip with Macron is in order.

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2. Easter Ceasefire Brings Brief Glimmer of Humanity Amidst the Chaos

Putin announced a surprise Easter ceasefire yesterday. As can be expected, it again divided the commentariat, with the 'turbopatriot' contingent damning the dovish leader for his constant perceived concessions to the West, while others praised him for a 5D chess move to expose Zelensky's intransigent warmongering.

Arguments can be made for both sides: on one hand it's undeniable that Zelensky's image suffered as even MSM outlets were forced to report of Ukraine's 'rejection' of peace; on the other hand, we must consider how Russian servicemen agonizing in the crucible of the frontlines feel when their leader repeatedly signals 'conciliatory gestures' during the midst of a brutal conflict that is wiping out their friends left and right.

Indeed, both sides have merit.

But we must be reminded that wars are no strangers to special ceasefires for holidays and religious observances. The first world war, for its part, saw quite a few of them, including the famous Christmas Ceasefire of 1914, which featured troops from both sides crawling out of their trenches to share a moment of camaraderie in the frigid heart of 'no man's land':

There were joint burial ceremonies and prisoner swaps, while several meetings ended in carolling. Hostilities continued in some sectors, while in others the sides settled on little more than arrangements to recover bodies.

Of course, that was the beginning of the war. Later, after the carnage had accrued, things were never so jolly again. In the midst of a bitter third year in the Ukrainian war, there were no such occasions of merriment, but simple collection of bodies. Well, there was one claimed video from the Ukrainian side of a small group of Russians allegedly parleying with Ukrainians—though it's hard to tell which is which:

The Russian side was allowed to collect its casualties from the field in Zaporozhye under a white flag with medical cross, as filmed by Ukrainian drone:

And the Ukrainian side doing the same:

At least one video appeared of Ukrainian drones still attacking Russians despite the above white flag:

A Russian evacuation group under a white flag tried to remove the dead, but they were attacked by the enemy. 1:30-first arrivals, 4:30-kamikaze arrived, 5:20 - arrival from a tank, 5:50-kamikaze strike, 7:40-repeated kamikaze strike

The comparison to earlier truces does occasion an odd thought. The type of mutual respect shared 'between Saxon and Anglo-Saxon' in WWI is nearly unthinkable in today's Ukrainian war. The Germans who met their counterparts in no man's land were said to have been 'confused' as to why the British were even fighting there. The two peoples had mutual respect, and the soldiers of each side had likely understood the inscrutable vagaries of politics had brought them to a fateful and unnecessary clash.

But in the case of the Ukraine war, two nations which should have been bound by a brotherly commonality share a kind of enmity unheard of even between the opponents of past world wars. It is nigh unthinkable for a Ukrainian soldier to praise or even look upon a Russian one as an equal, or an object worthy of even a momentary olive branch of respect. The Ukrainians have been taught to dehumanize the Russians at every turn, in every form and category of civil expression: from the strict adherence to minusculing the name 'russia', or intentionally bastardizing it as ruZZia, Rascia, etc., to a long laundry list of overtly racist slurs—in mimicry of Nazi racialism, no less—describing Russians as everything from orcs to izgoi to outright subhumans, depicted in this Ukrainian-circulated meme meant to evoke the typical 'ruZZian orc' of Putin's "mir" known as 'Mordor':

These misbegotten sentiments have been lifted straight out of the CIA and MI6 playbooks, bred into the Ukrainian nationalist psyche since the days of 1948's Operation Aerodynamic. But it's part of a much broader psyop to target all Russian culture, which continues operating to this day, wherein anything of Russian origin is made to be slandered and curbed at all costs, anything even remotely adjacent to Russia curtailed and marginalized so as to never allow the Russian side of the story in the world's greatest geopolitical struggle even the slightest hint of expression.

Just consider the explosion of 'Ruscism' as a term over the past three years: an information campaign designed to reduce Russian culture to a kind of perverse and backward cargo cult led by the caricature of Vladimir Putin as a dictator-illusionist in one, weaving a spell over his impoverished flock drunk on long-past Soviet glories. Funny how the Ukrainian variant of 'lustration' never caught fire in the same way.

Though the sentiment certainly exists on the Russian side—albeit in mostly justified doses, given the unprovoked attacks on Russian language, culture, and institutions initiated by the Ukrainians—to an immeasurably greater extent, Russian soldiers typically resign themselves to a kind of reluctant pity for their Ukrainian 'younger siblings', who are seen as propagandized into fighting against their will by the tyrannical Atlanticist machine.

Here is an example, posted by Russian Major General Apti Alaudinov just days ago on his TG channel:

In fact, I want to point out that even when they are our enemies, I feel sorry that the Ukrainian people are losing so many men, and really, if this continues, the Ukrainian people will cease to exist as an identity. Representatives of this people cannot understand that they are really fuel only for the enrichment of the leadership of this country. For this people, the loss of so many men is, I believe, a humanitarian catastrophe.

Don't you understand that we, Russians, are not your enemies? We are not your enemies. We are not fighting the Ukrainian people. We are not fighting Ukraine as a state. We are fighting the fascist regime that leads Ukraine. We are fighting the NATO bloc, which is precisely the army of the Antichrist-Dajjal.

I think that sooner or later you will wake up and throw off the Satanist leadership that controls you. We know that we are on the path of the Almighty and we are fighting for religion, we are fighting for our people, we are ready to carry out any order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. And we know that we will win. This is a clear question. Wake up!

You will be hard pressed to find a similar humanistic appeal from any Ukrainian commander, much less soldier. The only one that has come close has been ex-presidential advisor Arestovich, who has lately adopted the stance that Ukraine's downfall was truly born of the mad dehumanization of Russians elevated to a kind of state ideology. Of course, in Arestovich's case, the gleaming 'realization' comes down merely to political posturing, and the desperate desire to apple-polish his way into favor as a 'reasonable' moderate candidate for the post-Zelensky playing field.

As of this writing, the 'ceasefire'—or what was left of it—has passed, and the guns are once more fulminating in the distance. It's hard to say how much of anything the spectacle achieved, and whether it was some 'cunning ploy' by Putin to denude Zelensky on the global stage, or done merely in the genuinely pious spirit of mercy befitting the holiest of Christian days.

But mercy is certainly not a virtue ever to be extended in good faith to Russia by the seething misanthropes cowering in their dusty dens in the bowels of Brussels and the City of London. As such, it will be wise for Putin to keep the spectacles to a minimum, and continue prosecuting the war until the guns fall silent not as consequence of political theater, but by the crushing demise of the enemy's resistance.

After all, the wicked preach godliness while secretly plotting the total erasure of the Russian way of life, and as Putin once rhetorically remarked about what need there'd be for this world without Russia, we can conclude:

Fiat justitia, ruat caelum—Let justice be done, though the heavens may fall.

I leave you with the timely Russian Easter ad from the "12 Temples" project focused on "strengthening moral values and increasing interest in the topic of spiritual development."

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3. Rubio Warns US Readying to 'Abandon' Ukraine Peace Efforts

Following weeks of stop-and-go attempts to make any kind of headway with Ukrainian 'negotiations' both Trump and Secretary of State Rubio have now signaled terminal exasperation.

In a new statement, Rubio remarked that he and Trump are close to giving up on Ukrainian peace attempts:

"We're trying to figure out very soon—and I'm talking about a matter of days…if this war can even be ended. If not, then the president is going to say 'We're done'."

Trump punctuated this with his own follow-up by grousing: "If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we're just going to say you're fools and horrible people, and we're going to take a pass."

At the same time, rumors continue to abound that Trump is now targeting a ceasefire for the first 100 days of his administration by the end of April. I suppose the trick is to just keep adding zeroes to the end of each promise—first a ceasefire on day one of office, now day 100, maybe soon 1,000. Is that how it works?

Granted, there has been some headway made by Witkoff, who appeared to acknowledge that a US-Russian rapprochement would bring the world to a different kind of turning point, hinting at ongoing discussions that range much greater than merely Ukraine, but something more akin to Putin's visionary global security architecture rejigging.

But Russian media jumped the gun yesterday announcing that Witkoff had now de facto approved of Ukraine giving up "all five" contested regions to Russia. Witkoff reportedly clarified that he was still only referring to the five regions at the current point of 'occupation'—which precludes giving up cities like Kherson and Zaporozhye. This can only mean we're still no where near agreement on core conditions between Russia and the US.

UN rep Nebenzya underlined this with a new statement:

Ceasefire in Ukraine "at this stage" is unrealistic, said Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Nebenzya

Bloomberg reports that the US is "willing to recognize Crimea as Russian"—but this is a pittance compared to Russia's full demands, a fact RT's Margarita Simonyan made loud and clear:

The fact of the matter is, Zelensky has now given a list of Ukraine's own "red lines": they include no demilitarization, and in fact stipulate specifically that Ukraine will increase its military strength at all costs. This one point alone makes the whole charade utterly futile as Russia can never allow a threatening militarized power like this to exist on its frontier.

Now Ukrainians believe it is simply inevitable that the US will be out of the picture, and Ukraine forced to subsist merely on European support. So the big question becomes: will Europe alone be enough?

One of the top Ukrainian analysts chimes in:

Myroshnykov:

Trump doesn't even want to sell weapons to Ukraine.

Yes, he refused to sell the Patriot air defense system.

The source so far is the German Bild, which is not reliable. I would wait for American sources.

But overall, the train of thought is clear.

They will transfer (with pauses and blockages) the aid that was allocated and contracted under Biden, and that's it.

From now on, arms supplies will be exclusively the province of Europe and other allies.

And Trump is also putting pressure on Europe for supplying us with weapons.

Kremlin agent Krasnov is doing everything possible to ensure that Russia wins.

But fuck him all about the self-tanning.

We'll get away with it, and this scumbag will become the most hated US president in the history of the country.

Many American "experts" like David Ignatius believe Ukraine will begin to be in trouble by summertime, as Europe will not be able to shoulder America's burden:

"Ukraine is going to suffer big losses this summer" - American journalist David Ignatius.

"Trump, Rubio and their team seem to be preparing to step away from this issue, leaving it in the hands of the Europeans. And I'm sorry to say this, but despite the enormous efforts of the Europeans, they do not have the necessary resources to replace the United States. They are not able to compensate for this gap, which means that unless something changes, Ukraine will find itself in a situation this summer where its losses will become increasingly heavy."

Pro-Ukrainian commentators on the other hand believe that Ukraine can keep trucking with European help because, according to them, Ukraine has transitioned almost entirely to a drone-based defense organization, where the need for other types of arms becomes minimal.

This is evidenced by presentations like the following, a new video from Ukraine's government-run United24 production company. It showcases what is claimed to be Ukraine's largest drone manufacturing line, a sprawling complex outfitted with 350 3D printers churning out what is alleged to be 4,000 FPVs per day:

Video from United24media from a production facility for the Ukrainian company Skyfall, which produces Shrike FPV and Vampire night bomber UAVs. They currently produce 4,000 FPVs per day.

It's a little hard to believe, given that up til recently Ukraine's drone production was claimed to be 2-3 million per year, max. At 4,000 per day, this one facility alone would be doing 1.5 million, or more than half of Ukraine's claimed output. Secondly, it's interesting they continue to proudly refer to it as Ukraine's "domestic" production, continually building up Ukraine as some kind of self-sufficient powerhouse capable of going it alone, and slugging it out with Russia with little outside help. Yet in the very opening of the video, the host curiously describes the production site as being: "A few thousand kilometers from the frontline…"

Well, that's fascinating, given that from the Polish border to Donetsk is barely 1,000km:

So, where is this facility, exactly, that it is "a few thousand kilometers" from the frontline? Is this really Ukraine's brawny "domestic" production at its finest? Seems more likely it's sat in Poland or Germany. That should probably answer the natural question sure to arise as to "Why Russia can't destroy such a massive facility pumping out more than half of Ukraine's entire drone output?"

The video is worth a watch though, as the second half goes into the fledgling AI vision the drones are being increasingly equipped with, giving us a further look as to how the battlefield is shifting.

It's undeniable how outlandish things are beginning to look owing to the drone threat, from the increasingly oddball vehicle anti-drone reinforcements:

A T-72B3M tank of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with anti-drone protection in the form of hair made of metal cables.

To the terrain itself, now increasingly transformed by anti-drone netting, as the following new video again demonstrates:

I posted this video in a premium article recently, so I'll post it again for the free subscribers: Russian drones seen bypassing the netting covering Ukrainian logistics lines from below, to successfully hit AFU transport vehicles:

—

Another exchange of bodies took place on the front, with an even more lopsided tally than last time: 909 Ukrainian dead to 41 Russian.

Some channels have put together the exchanges going back two years—Russian in red, Ukrainian in blue:

18.04.25 Exchange of the dead

On April 18, another exchange of bodies of fallen servicemen took place in the SVO zone between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine received the bodies of 909 fallen servicemen, Russia - 41.

Graph of exchange of bodies of the dead for the years 23-25.

In total, Russia transferred 6881 bodies, Ukraine 1374 bodies.

For those who are new to this, a Ukrainian government body called the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War publishes the exchanges on their official governmental site, with the latest being here:

https://koordshtab.gov.ua/posts/v-ukrayinu-povernuly-tila-909-polehlykh-oborontsiv-2079

On the above site they even provide photos of the Russian morgue trucks which delivered the bodies, which were from:

But as I've said before, they do not publish the amount of Russian bodies they return to Russia. The reason seems obvious: that they do not wish for the casualty disparity to be known. So the "41 bodies" returned to Russia is a figure taken from the Russian side.

For the record, my own previous ongoing tally from a March exchange was:

Russian losses: 464
Ukrainian losses: 5,213
Ratio: 11.24 to 1

So now we add to it and get:

Russian losses: 505
Ukrainian losses: 6,122
Ratio: 12.12 to 1

I've only been tracking them for a year or so, unlike the earlier chart, but figured it's worth to keep my own tally going.

I really do wonder what possible reasoning detractors can come up with for such an increasingly lopsided exchange rate. Surely people can't still be attributing it to simply: "It's because Russia is advancing and collecting the bodies", can they?

—

A few last items:

Another HIMARS system was said to have been tracked and destroyed by an Iskander-M near Kramatorsk:

18.04.25 Kramatorsk - Starovarvarovka

Combat operations in the depths of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense.

Successful destruction of the Ukrainian HIMARS multiple launch rocket system as a result of a missile strike by the Russian Armed Forces on a position near Starovarvarovka. Detonation of ammunition.

The distance from the line of combat contact is about 40 km.

Geo: 48.65972, 37.27472

Geolocation:

—

Witkoff makes the diplomatic faux pas of the century by comparing the Elysee to…Trump's Mar-a-Lago golf club, during his visit to Paris:

What is it they say about class?

—

Russian forces have continued making many new nibbling gains all around the front, which we will get to on the next report.

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4. Growing Focus on Russian Tactical Evolutions Bringing Renewed Battlefield Success on the Eve of Offensive Season

The following is a hefty ~4,000 word premium article on the shifting frontline tactics of the Russian Armed Forces. It features a breakdown of a new WSJ article on the topic, as well as detailed anatomies of recent assaults, and an interview with a Russian soldier culminating in the idea of a 'revolution in military affairs' taking place in Russia—featuring the 'democratization' of the armed forces—in spite of ongoing technical and logistical struggles.

The Wall Street Journal published a new guide to Russia's increasingly successful battle tactics. It comes at a time when Western press and its pro-Ukrainian lackeys have quietly begun admitting to the various successes and evolutionary tactical progressions that Russian forces have been achieving.

Let's start with the WSJ piece:

Brief summary from a Russian source:

Americans think the Russian army is not fighting like gentlemen.

WSJ writes that the Russian military is "blazing a trail in Ukraine, combining the brute force of the Red Army with modern technology."

The Russian way of warfare, according to the newspaper, is based on drones that detect targets and "the power of bombs and artillery that pave the way for infantry to seize territory."

"Each element of the attack supports the others, happening simultaneously or in waves. This can create a snowball effect, forcing the Ukrainians to retreat," the article says.

Hold on to that first bolded line, it will come into play later.

Firstly, as a statement of methodology WSJ claims to have "[spoken] with Ukrainian and Russian soldiers as well as military analysts to form a picture of how it works."

They begin by stating a lot of obvious points—Russia has hundreds of recon drones all over the front at any given time, and they use them to pinpoint massive bombing strikes on Ukrainian positions from Su-34s and the like:

A recent photo surfaced showing an Su-34 flying at 11,070 meters, or ~36,000 ft, with the nighttime cityscape of Zaporozhye city ahead of it. The designated wing pylons 3, 11, 12, and 4 are loaded with Fab-500 bombs:

What makes this interesting is the distance to the city appears perhaps 50-70km at most, with the plane's orientation as directly south of it. It implies Ukrainian long range air defense is attrited to such an extent as to allow these planes to fly at max altitude that close to a major Ukrainian population center. Recall it was only a year ago that A-50 AWACS flying much farther away near the Azov Sea were reportedly at threat of 200-300+ kilometer AD missiles.

Some estimates indicate Ukraine is woefully short:

On the drone front, Russia has been increasingly expanding its recon drone fleet. Here's a test flight in the Sverdlovsk region of a prototype EW drone with antennas attached, that can suppress enemy signals—note how the viewing monitors turn off or go to static as the drone flies over:

Such drones can be used to suppress enemy FPV operators across a given front.

At the same time, a Russian team tested the first long range FPV operation wherein an operator sitting in Moscow was able to control an FPV drone in Konstantinovka:

For the first time, an FPV drone controlled from Moscow hits a Ukrainian Armed Forces facility in Chasov Yar

The strike was carried out by the FPV drone "Ovod" using the new control system "Orbita".

The UAV crew from the Espanyola brigade prepared the drone for takeoff.

The drone was controlled by a UAV operator located in Moscow.

The drone flew more than 11 km and successfully hit the target.

"Orbita" will allow drone strikes to be carried out by issuing commands from anywhere in the world.

/RIAN/

Granted, this is nothing new to American operators flying MidEast Predator kill missions from the comfort of Las Vegas, but for FPV drones this is a new development that could allow the distribution of remote pilots to alleviate operator droughts on given fronts, not to mention take operators out of harm's way.

The WSJ article goes on to explain that Russians essentially use small, fast motorcycle riders in a dual role. Not only are they carrying out the trickling 'drip-feed' method of insertion I've often described here by quickly speeding across open enemy territory to 'accumulate' in a captured position, but they are simultaneously utilizing 'reconnaissance-by-fire' to draw out Ukrainian positions:

Recall that in the very opening, the article states:

The Russian way of war relies on drones to spot targets and the power of its bombs and artillery to blast a path for infantry to seize ground. Each element of an attack supports the others, happening simultaneously or in waves. This can create a snowball effect, forcing Ukrainians to retreat.

They admit that this is a deliberate unified strategy, which is usually highly coordinated between the artillery set to fire on the 'exposed' forces that the motorcycle riders have outed via their recon-by-fire assault. Russian artillery and drone teams then suppress the enemy fire points, allowing the motorcycle riders to quickly entrench in the captured position.

One of the enduring Ukrainian claims, 'demonstrated' in dozens of videos, and hinted at in the WSJ article, is that these Russian riders are some kind of expendable troops which mostly die as soon as they arrive. This claim is supported by videos showing many of the ATVs and motorbikes being destroyed after the arrival.

Read more

5. Zelensky Charms CBS, as Trump Throws Impatient Tantrum

Today brings us a new 60 Minutes interview with Zelensky, which was rife with 'interesting' moments, the first being Zelensky's proclamation of his undying hatred for Putin:

More than just eyebrows, this clearly raises questions as to how it could be possible to negotiate with a character of this unstable bent, who exemplifies such unadulterated and unprofessional bias.

The now duly-unelected Narcocrat went on to admit Ukraine is incapable of retaking lost territories by force:

The most interesting statement was made by CBS itself, attributed to Zelensky on social media—that Ukraine has up to "100,000 soldiers dead":

Zelensky's press office immediately sprang into damage control:

Zelensky did not mention the alleged 100,000 killed soldiers in the interview with CBS - Zelensky's press secretary.

According to Serhii Nykyforov, CBS News attributed their own figures to president Zelensky. Ukraine's losses stand at 45,100 KIA soldiers as of February.

So, Ukraine is still officially toting the 45k dead line. Funny how back in May 2022, Zelensky essentially admitted 100 KIA per day in the much lower intensity fighting:

I say 'low intensity' because this was long before the Russian mobilization—at this point maybe 150-200k total Russian troops had been involved in the war, compared to the 600k+ seen today. The war is now on day 1145, if you multiply that by 100 KIA per day, you get a minimum of ~115,000. But as I said, the frontline was much smaller back then, and we can expect for the casualties to have skyrocketed by now, which one can extrapolate to mean that the real figure is far higher than 115k.

For his part, Trump erupted over the interview, calling CBS a failed station, and other predictable insults. The problem is, Trump has been floundering on his Ukraine position, digging himself a deeper hole out of desperation to save face over the failed talks with Russia. In his efforts, he has made quite a few contradictions. Sensing people's increasing view that he has now 'owned' the reputationally-toxic Ukrainian conflict, Trump went on the offensive to claim it is Biden's conflict, after all. But at the same time, he goes on to brag that he was the president to give Ukraine its first big military boost with the Javelins, which won them their 'first big battle' and allegedly destroyed a lot of Russian tanks:

So, whose war is it, really?

This reeks of infant desperation:

In fact, Trump is getting really antsy about Russia's steadfast adherence to its long-held principles. Lusting for the PR boost of ending a pesky war he knows nothing about, Trump is nearly begging for Russia to stop advancing and winning:

Russia has got to stop the war because too many people are dying? From the lips of the man who just bombed Yemen, tearing apart dozens of children and civilians?

No, we aren't fooled so easily. He cares nothing whatsoever about any imagined 'deaths' in Ukraine, otherwise he'd be blowing his shofar just as loudly about the ongoing genocide in Palestine, aided in full by his administration, not to mention the senseless slaughter in Yemen. In reality, Trump is likely getting anxious for two reasons: the first, as stated before, to score political points for his floundering administration; the second is likely because all the MIC deep state operatives around him are putting heavy internal pressure on him to reorient to China, and he knows the Ukraine conflict is a huge drag on the US' resources.

There's likely even more secretive reasons, like not wanting Russia to expand its control and influence too much in Europe, as think-tank influencers have likely apprised Trump of the consequences of that: Russia's fast-tracked clinching of superpower status.

Circling back to the topic of casualties, there is another set of interesting figures that have trickled out the past few days. First, there was the 'shocking' report from Verstka Media that military recruitment has been soaring in Russia, even more than normal:

A German data analyst crunched the numbers and found that Russia may be recruiting as many as 1,400+ people a day:

The analyst notes in the thread his belief that Russia suffers ~200 KIA per day in the war, which would mean by his own numbers Russia is vastly out-generating the losses.

Sibreal.org also published a study:

Military recruiting is soaring in Russian regions, per Sibreal.org, officials hiking signing bonuses and aggressively pushing contracts. In Irkutsk as of March 1, new recruits receive 1.4 million-ruble bonuses; more than an entire average annual salary.

The first Verstka piece is a major failure of propaganda; not only did they uncover that Moscow region experienced a record number of signups in April—which flies in the face of crude claims about Russia 'exploiting' poorer regions at the benefit of 'rich Muscovites'—but also that Russians are signing up not for the money, but for revenge for Kursk, and most critically, boosted morale from the perceived growing successes of the Russian army:

Speaking about what motivates Moscow volunteers to join the army today, the source who selects them notes that this is, among other things, the success of the Russian army on the battlefield, propaganda and a desire for revenge. To the first point, the selector refers the liberation of the Kursk region, and to the second-reports of pro-government media about possible crimes on the part of the Ukrainian military.

The above is about as bad a development for Ukraine as can be imagined: it means Russians are growing confident, and their boosted patriotism is only expanding the army's size and strength.

But it gets worse: Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office Pavel Palisa released another devastating data point in an interview with BIHUS Info, as reported by Ukrainian Pravda:

Ukraine: despite being offered a one-time cash benefit of 1 million hryvna (US$24k) "only 500 people between 18 and 24 have signed up for the army" Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavel Palisa

So, while being offered virtually the same $24k+ signing bonus as Russian troops, Zelensky's newly much-vaunted 18-24 recruitment drive bagged a grand total of…. 500 signups.

No, not just in April so far, but since the inception of the entire program in February. That means from this critical 18-24 cohort, despite record monetary incentives, they managed to recruit—from the entire country, no less—only 160 or so people per month. This is while Russia is recruiting over 1,000 per day total.

The point is that, this is a dire bellwether for the critical 18-24 cohort: it means virtually no one in that age range wants to willingly serve in the war. As a kind of trial run for a necessary future forced mobilization of this group, it shows that virtually no one from the group wants to voluntarily serve, and that forcing them to fight when the time comes will be a very messy affair.

That comes at a time when there are again increased reports of women being recruited into the ranks, even from prison:

A captured soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the 425th assault regiment "Skala" reported during interrogation about the conscription of women from prisons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They have been preparing them for a month and a half, and now there are 2-3 women in the assault unit of 8 people. The men in the Rock are about 45 years old, and the women are about 30.

Not to mention the first reported deaths from the new 18-24 cohort, including a 21-year old girl who was featured in a video proudly discussing her signup to the 1 million hryvnia bonus program:

Not long after, she was reported deceased on the front, along with another 18-year old of her cohort:

The first deaths have been reported among those who signed a contract under the "18-24 program" with the Ukrainian army. It's an 18-year-old guy named Alexander and a 21-year-old girl named Veronika.

What's really interesting here is that, judging by the obituary, Alexander died on April 5th. Even if he signed the contract on the day the program was announced, February 11th (which is unlikely), from the moment of signing to the moment of his death, just over 50 days passed instead of the promised 3 months of training (basically 45 days + 14 days + 14 days). It's obvious that these promises are simply not being kept, and the young recruits are being sent to the front way earlier.

A few last items:

Reports that the "coalition of the willing" to galvanize boots on the ground for Ukraine has failed again:

At the same time, Mad Macron's feisty frogmen are apparently champing at the bit over in Romania:

🇫🇷⚔️🇷🇺 The French army is preparing to fight Russia on the border with Romania, - Le Figaro

▪️French military maps the territory on the border of Romania with Ukraine and Moldova in case of a possible clash between NATO and Russia.

▪️In 2024, soldiers from the 28th separate military unit of the French ground forces, the only military topographic unit in the republic, arrived in Romania to update the maps of the area. The military paid special attention to mapping the Focsani Gate, a corridor between the Carpathian foothills and the Danube, which, according to NATO, could be used by the Russian army for an offensive.

▪️In combat conditions, troops must be prepared to continue operations even if satellite signals are suppressed.

➖"The Allies needed updated information on the expected battlefield," explained the unit's commander, Colonel Guillaume Schmidt, the purpose of the mission.

▪️The result of the joint work of French military topographers and the National Cartographic Agency of Romania was a three-dimensional map of the area.

➖"It will allow us to accurately determine the location of bridges and possible crossings," explained Sergeant Joannie.

▪️A battle between the French army and the Russian army on the eastern borders of Romania is only possible if the Russian Armed Forces capture the Odessa region and Moldova before that.

RVvoenkor

Read the last part again:

A battle between the French army and the Russian army on the eastern borders of Romania is only possible if the Russian Armed Forces capture the Odessa region and Moldova before that.

The opposite is true: they're clearly there to map out routes to seize Odessa swiftly in the case Ukrainian defenses collapse and Russian troops bear down on the key city.

This comes after The Times shared Trump envoy Keith Kellogg's alleged vision for how Ukraine could be partitioned between zones of influence like Germany after WWII:

Kellogg himself sputtered out a refutation:

The Times article misrepresents what I said. I was speaking of a post-cease fire resiliency force in support of Ukraine's sovereignty. In discussions of partitioning, I was referencing areas or zones of responsibility for an allied force (without US troops). I was NOT referring to a partitioning of Ukraine.

The Trump admin has no real clue how to end the conflict, and Lavrov mentioned yesterday that the US still has not come close to acknowledging Russia's core interests in the war. The two sides had again just met in Istanbul days ago, but it was said that Ukraine was hardly even discussed at all, rather other areas of preliminary rapprochement between the two countries took precedence.

Witkoff did follow up by meeting Putin, and released a promising summary of the "five hour long meeting": that Putin effectively for the first time in person articulated the exact conditions it would take to achieve a ceasefire.

That means the Trump administration no longer has any real excuse in pretending to not understand Russia's demands and security interests.

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6. Bombshell Reports: "German Weapons Not Made for War"

Spiegel published a quite eye-opening piece yesterday, which reveals the long-kept truth about the performance of German weapons systems in real wartime conditions:

Before we delve into it, here is a summary of what the article found:

A German military assessment exposes major issues with NATO weapons in Ukraine.

The PzH 2000 howitzer, while advanced, is so technically fragile that its combat usefulness is in doubt. The Leopard 1A5 tank is used mostly as makeshift artillery due to weak armor. The Leopard 2A6 is too expensive and complex to maintain at the front.

Air defense systems also face problems. The IRIS-T works well, but ammo is too costly and scarce. The Patriot system is called "unsuitable for combat" because its MAN carrier vehicles are outdated and lack spare parts.

This information was revealed in a transcript of a lecture given by the deputy military attaché of the German embassy in Kiev. The summary of the paper is very clear: "Hardly any large German piece of equipment is fully suitable for war."

The report cites "an internal paper of the Bundeswehr" about the real practicality of Germany's top weapons. We can assume that the very same results extend to the entire constellation of NATO weaponry in general, since they are virtually all constructed with the same design philosophies, often even with interoperable systems—like the 120mm Rheinmetall tank barrels shared between the Abrams and Leopard series.

Also, for the sake of thoroughness and to establish context, Spiegel explains that the 'report' was taken from a lecture given to junior officers of the Bundeswehr by a 'deputy military attaché of the German embassy in Kiev':

The paper, which is available to SPIEGEL, is a transcript of a lecture given to around 200 junior officers of the German Armed Forces in Delitzsch, Saxony. The speaker was the deputy military attaché of the German embassy in Kyiv, who spoke at the end of January about the experiences of the Ukrainian armed forces in the fight against the Russian war of aggression. He spoke in clear terms about the problems the Ukrainians had with German weapons in combat. An army officer eagerly took notes in order to use the findings for training in the Bundeswehr.

Spiegel minces no words when they declare that the attaché's report is in large part "devastating".

The clearest example is Germany's very advanced—but over-designed—PhZ 2000 self-propelled artillery gun.

For example, although the Panzerhaubitze 2000 is an "outstanding weapon system", it is "so technically vulnerable that its suitability for war is highly questionable". Although the Leopard 1A5 main battle tank has proven to be "reliable" at the front, the Ukrainians "often only use it as makeshift artillery due to its weak armor". And with the newer Leopard 2A6, the cost of maintenance is so high that repairs at the front are often not possible.

To witness it in action is to behold a marvel of engineering:

Well, here's a Ukrainian one jamming in action:

But just as many in the Russian sphere had long suspected, such 'dazzling' workmanship and technology usually leads to high maintenance and reliability costs, as anyone who's owned a BMW can probably attest.

There have even been claims that one of the PhZ 2000's most vaunted capabilities, that of the Multiple Rounds Simultaneous Impact (MRSI), remains unused in the war because firing so many rounds in such quick succession quickly wears out the 'delicate' barrel.

Recall that last year, I fielded a similar report about the French Caesar which stated that due to the massive unit cost of the system, it was relegated to being used only sparingly in a 'sniper' style scoot-and-shoot role, lowering its effectiveness. There's even been a growing sentiment around the fact that towed artillery guns have made a comeback, and are now 'preferable' to self-propelled guns in the modern style of warfare, given their ability to remain concealed, lower heat signature—owing to having no engine—smaller profile, etc. Some have even gone on to proclaim that 'scoot-and-shoot' tactics are dead given that the preponderance of drones now makes it safer to stay concealed in one place rather than attempt moving, which only immediately exposes you to drone ISR.

One Russian analyst's take:

Thus, the technologically advanced Panzerhaubitze-2000 self-propelled gun and the Leopard-2A6 tank are extremely capricious, and any technical malfunction often cannot be corrected in the field. As a result, for the AFU is more popular on the battlefield simple early "Leopard-1A5" and the same old American self-propelled gun M-109A3, which was tested in battles.

Due to the weaker dynamics at the front, towed artillery has a number of advantages over self-propelled guns, including camouflage and survivability. We have a similar picture. The high-tech Msta-S self-propelled gun appears less and less frequently in reports and on the front line. The towed "Hyacinth-B" becomes the main howitzer at the front. For the same reason, we will never see "Armata" on the battlefield. Well, except only for PR.

The Spiegel report goes on to touch on other systems, including IRIS-T and Patriot air defense, which it calls "unfit for war" due to the carrier vehicles being "too old" and lacking spare parts. There's a reason many Russian systems have interoperable vehicles; for instance, seen here is an MZKT-7930 which can hoist everything from Bal coastal defense missiles, 96L6E radar for the S-400, Uragan MLRS, and even Iskander missile launcher—as well as many other things:

With this type of modular design concept, there are plenty of spare parts to go around.

The most damning concluding statement from the article:

In summary, the paper is very clear: "Hardly any large German device is fully suitable for war".

Ouch.

And this, by the way, comes only days after Bloomberg published its own devastating report about a German drone project for Ukraine.

The essential rundown is that a "high tech" kamikaze drone that was meant to be the German 'Lancet' turned out to be a total fraud, as Ukrainian commanders found it to have subpar electronics, warheads, etc., after taking it apart.

The following summary is a must-read:

Bloomberg has published a critical article about the German startup Helsing, which produces kamikaze drones HX-2 and HF-1 for Ukraine.

The company started with a plan to create AI-powered software that could process and integrate data from military sensors into a single network. The company grew quickly and raised much of its initial funding from Spotify's Daniel Ek, who invested €100 million. In its first year, the company opened offices in France and the UK.

Helsing soon began to strike deals with defense contractors and bid for military contracts, mostly in Germany. That's where it had its strongest connections: co-founder and co-CEO Gunnbert Scherf had spent two years working for the defense ministry under Ursula von der Leyen.

In 2022, when the German government created a special €100 billion defense fund and significant funds began to flow into the sector, Helsing merged with Rheinmetall. However, at the end of 2024, the agreement was terminated because "the partnership did not progress to the stage of technical cooperation."

Investors, military experts and former employees are concerned about whether the startup can justify its €5 billion valuation. The company has been described as overly secretive about its product development and overly confident in public statements about its technology.

Last November, Helsing struck a deal with Ukrainian startup Terminal Autonomy to outfit 4,000 low-cost drones with Helsing's new Altra software. The drone was named the AQ 100 Bayonet (HF-1).

Ukrainian military personnel who received the HF-1 complain about a weak warhead, unreliable and complex software, and inflated cost.

"We are talking about a product that is made of cheap components and sold as cutting-edge technology," said a serviceman with the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, whose unit received 120 HF-1s in February. "I can assure you because I took them apart." He said "a product like that costs no more than 100,000 hryvnia (€2,200). And it costs €16,700, which is prohibitively expensive."

On March 21, a post was published on the Facebook page of Ukrainian military man Oleksandr Karpyuk, in which the HF-1 drone was described as having a "shitty" warhead and a "very primitive guidance system."

The company charges an unusually high premium for its software, adding thousands of euros to each device. Officials at one of Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies have also raised concerns about the price, but the company is not under investigation. Helsing's Simon Bruynjes declined to provide details on the HF-1's pricing, but rejected Karpyuk's claims that each drone costs 18,000 euros as inaccurate and exaggerated.

In February, the company announced that it could produce 1,000 HX-2 drones per month and planned to send 6,000 of them to Ukraine as part of an order from the German government. However, the German Defense Ministry said it had not yet made any financial commitment to the order.

Military Informant

Well, what else is new when it comes to NATO toys?

That being said, like some of my more extreme colleagues, I don't take the view that all NATO equipment is a priori junk. For instance, earlier in the week the Russian 38th Research Institute published their frank results for tests of the captured M2 Bradley. The Ministry of Defense institute found the Bradley to be superior to the BMP-3 in a number of areas, in their opinion. Namely they found its accuracy and armor to be better—things long known to most, particularly given the Bradley's much heavier weight, in regard to the armor.

However most pro-UA rejoicers glossed over the report's statement that the BMP-3's overall firepower was greater than the Bradley's, given its additional 100mm cannon and ability to fire ATGM missiles on the move, which the Bradley cannot do.

Furthermore, the BMP-3's maneuverability is much greater. Coincidentally a new video appeared of a Ukrainian Bradley being badly beaten by the Swedish CV90 in a drag race, demonstrating the Bradley's sluggish performance:

And of course, few bothered to post the much more damning second part of the report from the same institute, comparing the Russian flagship T-90M to the captured Leopard 2A5—which some said was actually the 2A6:

The report found the T-90M superior in virtually every category, including—most shockingly—the T-90M's fire-control and detection capabilities, i.e. the quality of its optics.

Full translated report.

Comparative analysis showed that the T-90M tank outperforms the Leopard 2A5 in key TTCs, primarily due to the following technical solutions:

In Terms of Firepower:

• Increased detection and identification range of targets by the tank commander and gunner-operator in night and challenging conditions up to 3,300 meters due to the T-90M's modern fire control system, surpassing the Leopard 2A5's effective night firing range;

• The T-90M is equipped with a guided weapon system, enabling engagement of targets at ranges up to 5,000 meters;

• Enhanced area of effect and personnel damage capability due to the T-90M's remote detonation system for high-explosive fragmentation shells, absent on the Leopard 2A5;

• The T-90M ensures shorter preparation and firing time for the first shot and a higher rate of fire due to the use of an automatic loader and target tracking system.

In Terms of Protection:

Protection of the frontal projection against tandem-warhead ATGMs due to the T-90M's "Relikt" dynamic protection system;

The T-90M offers the option to install an active protection system for all-around defense against anti-tank threats.

Read the full tank report to see other comparisons the institute did, such as T-72B3M vs. Ukrainian T-72AG and T-64BV. Also, here is the full original Russian report.

The author of the above translation of the report is a known pro-Ukrainian Russophobe who condemned the Russian institute for glossing over many nuances. To an extent I would agree; for instance, in the T-90M vs. Leopard comparison, there are many more interesting and critical systems that could have been compared, such as the tanks' communications and integrated battle management systems, which give the tanks networked battlefield 'awareness' of blue and red forces. Also, other passive defensive systems like the T-90M's Shtora-1 laser detector (yes, the T-90M still has the Shtora, they took out the dazzlers from the T-90A but retained the laser detectors), which autonomously detects illuminators like those used in ATGMs and then fires off countermeasures like smoke grenades in automatic mode, as well as rotating the turret in the direction of the threat, etc.—none of which the Leopard has.

Ultimately, today's findings merely reinforce what I've been writing about since the beginning. Not that Russian weapons are magically "better" than those of the West—in fact, in many, if not most, circumstances they are slightly subpar on a purely one-to-one basis. But they are generally made with a design philosophy which reflects actual total war, rather than some combination of MIC corporate profit maximizing with the shift toward 'counter insurgency', which mostly privileges high-cost, high-precision weaponry.

But as I explained in the below article, this does not mean Russia merely makes "cheaper" weapons, but rather the entire design philosophy revolves around weaponry which can be picked up and used effectively by 'relatively untrained' conscripts, given that a total or 'people's war' scenario presupposes that high casualties will attrit much of the initial highly trained 'professional' corps, leaving farmers and miners to handle weaponry meant for taking out tanks and planes. The same goes for the ability to repair these weapons on the fly, in DIY fashion, once your logistics rear has been badly ravaged by war. NATO weaponry, for the most part, would be incapable of being serviced once the logistics rear is even slightly degraded.

—

As a last timely last corollary to all the above, we have today's news that an F-16 "game changer" was shot down by Russian missiles:

It was confirmed by both the BBC above, and Ukraine's own official Air Force command account:

BBC claims the following:

According to Air Force sources, Ivanov's plane was allegedly shot down by a Russian missile.

"In total, the Russians fired three missiles at the plane. It was either a guided anti-aircraft missile from the S-400 ground-based system, or an R-37 air-to-air missile,"the source said.

The R-37 is typically carried by the Su-35s.

—

A new report from Uralvagonzavod:

—

Lastly, speaking of expensive NATO weaponry, it was just announced that another of the much-vaunted American hypersonic missile projects has now been cancelled:

Just a week ago Popular Mechanics declared Russia as ahead in the hypersonic race:

The subheading correctly notes:

I recall a time when the Western press world was a jamboree of jeering about Russian hypersonics not "actually" being hypersonic, for a laundry list of arbitrary reasons.

Don't worry, Trump's tariffs will surely fix that. Oh wait—Newsweek reports:

The fate of the project to produce the latest American F-47 fighter jets depends on supplies of rare earth metals from China, which Beijing has already imposed restrictions on, writes Newsweek.

"Beijing is in a position of strength, controlling materials critical to the U.S. defense industry. China... has imposed export restrictions on rare earth metals that are key to the fighter jet that will be the backbone of the U.S. Air Force's next-generation fleet. Trump has touted the F-47 as a successor to the F-22 Raptor. But the viability of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program to build the fighter jets depends heavily on materials that China produces," the publication writes.

As the newspaper notes, we are talking about such light and heavy rare earth metals as samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.

Well, there's always Greenland.

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7. New Syrsky Interview Sheds Light on Upcoming Russian Operations + Recruitment Figures

As rasputitsa winds down, rumors of Russian offensives are gaining strength. In a new interview with LB.UA, Ukrainian C-in-C Syrsky has made a number of interesting statements. The first being that the Russian offensive on the Sumy and Kharkov regions has "already begun":

"Russia's new spring offensive against northeastern Ukraine 'has actually already begun,' Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in an interview with the LB.UA outlet published on April 9. Syrskyi's comments come after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Moscow is amassing forces for a fresh offensive against the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts this spring.

'I can say that the president is absolutely right, and this offensive has effectively already begun,' Syrskyi said. For nearly a week, Russian offensive operations have almost doubled in all main sectors, the commander-in-chief noted."

This is borne out by frontline evidence, as Russian forces have continued to make pushes in these regions. Particularly in Sumy, Russia has advanced the past few days, capturing Veselovka and as of today entering Loknya, as seen below:

Zhurava nearby was also taken:

Russia is reportedly massively using the 'drone ambush' tactic in this region, where the drone sits in wait by the roadside until an AFU vehicle emerges. The below video was reportedly taken precisely near Loknya, where such Russian drones are wreaking havoc on Ukrainian logistics routes:

This is said to be the Ukrainian road-o'-death leading to Loknya, video captured from the AFU side:

In Kharkov, the front suddenly stirred awake as Russian forces made new advancements in Vovchansk for the first time in weeks if not months.

Likewise southeast of there Russian forces have been making major headway on the Lyman front. Many Ukrainian military channels have been squawking about Russian successes there in the past few days:

Another Ukrainian analyst about the above direction:

In the estuary direction, the occupiers again managed to advance deep into our positions.

This applies to the Katerynivka-Nove line, where the enemy slipped between the villages, cut both castellans connecting them, and gained a foothold.

In such conditions, the defense of Katerynivka was practically impossible, so the village is not controlled by the Defense Forces.

Then the rolls go to Novomykhaylivka and, actually, Novye. And there Lypove also goes together.

From the Makiivka district, the scum are trying to reach Hrekivka.

The occupier's intermediate goal is to capture the Andriyivka-Izyumske-Stepove line in order to paralyze logistics in both the Borivka and northern estuary directions.

The places referred to are here:

In a new Reuters piece, a 'senior Ukrainian official' named Pavlo Palisa said that the real push is expected to begin later this month and in May:

One of the ways that we know Russia has begun stepping up offensives is the larger use of armored vehicle formations. During the winter months we saw much more small-scale action, with the now-standard 'drip-feed' tactic of inserting small clusters of troops into hedgerow and forest landing positions by way of light and mobile ATVs, bikes, etc.

Now we've again begun to see heavily armored columns of modified tanks with anti-mine rollers and the classic 'shed' designs. In the last Sitrep I covered the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade's assault in the area south of Chasov Yar. Now a new look at that assault has been released, showing us an interesting aspect we rarely get to see:

In the video, we can see not only a large amount of Ukrainian FPV drones failing against the 'fortified' Russian tanks, but most importantly, how those tanks which are eventually disabled are brought back to life by Russian engineering forces. This casts doubt over Ukrainian daily losses claims against Russian vehicles, wherein rapidly-spliced footage shows hits on Russian tanks invariably counted as 'kills' when in actuality a large portion of the vehicles are towed back to repair base and diligently restored.

Also, since Russian troops are actively advancing, it makes more sense they'd have more opportunity to collect disabled but salvageable vehicles from both sides, later restoring a good percentage of them. The retreating side—that is, the AFU—gets the short end here. After all, isn't that the excuse used by the pro-UA crowd for why Russia always collects more bodies for 'cargo 200' exchanges? That's not to mention the restored vehicles are later hit again and again, vastly inflating the 'destroyed vehicles' category.

By the way, on that note, a member of Oryx's team has given an update to the tally of vehicles lost in the Kursk offensive:

Full spreadsheet.

Note that even Oryx's team now admit Ukraine lost more vehicles than Russia, officially painting the operation as a major failure. Now that Russia has effectively retaken virtually everything there, who do you think will be the recipient of all those destroyed vehicles, restoring a good percentage of them?

Corollary to the above—Russian forces finally fully captured the last real settlement of the Kursk region yesterday in Guevo:

Getting back to Syrsky's interview one more time; it's a long interview with a lot of nuggets.

Firstly, he again stokes fears of a big Russian offensive on Kiev later this year, citing the renewed large-scale 'Zapad' exercises in Belarus set to be held in September.

Syrsky opines:

All exercises have a purpose. In other words, the appearance of exercises is the most acceptable way to relocate, transfer troops, concentrate on a certain direction and create a group of troops.

Actually, this is how it started in 2022. You will remember that the group was initially created, it conducted exercises, and we all hoped that they would end, the Russian troops would return to their territory.

But when it was decided that these exercises were continuing, it became obvious to me that everything was going to change.

The next interesting tidbit: He claims that the Russian artillery advantage is now only 2:1, rather than 10:1 like last year. He claims Ukraine's destruction of the Russian Toropets arsenal in September 2024 caused Russia to halve its shell usage. Russia has gone from firing 40,000+ rounds per day, to 23,000 now—according to him, although it has recently "crept up a little" to 27-28k.

Interestingly enough, Le Monde just reported yesterday that Ukraine's "largest ammunition production facility" was destroyed by Russian strikes:

‼️🇺🇦💥 Ukraine's main ammunition production facility destroyed in Shostka, Sumy region, — Le Monde

▪️The commander of the UAV company of the 104th brigade of the Ukrainian territorial defense Anton Serbin told the newspaper about this.

➖"In 2024, the Zvezda (gunpowder) and Impuls (detonators) plants were shelled several times, including on December 31, 2024, when 13 ballistic missiles were fired at them," the publication writes.

➖"Our main national ammunition production facility was destroyed," Serbin said.

The most significant portion of the interview discusses mobilization numbers of both sides:

But I want to say that the front is constantly increasing, the Kursk operation and the enemy's actions in the Kharkiv region, in Volchansk, gave us an increase in the front by 200 km.

And the enemy has increased its grouping fivefold since the beginning of the aggression. Every month they increase by eight to nine thousand, for a year it turns out 120-130 thousand. On January 1, 2025, in Russia, the group of troops participating in the fighting in Ukraine numbered 603 thousand military personnel, today it is already 623 thousand.

Above he states that Russia has increased the size of its entire military grouping in the SMO by fivefold since the beginning. Given that he says the Russian contingent is now at 623,000, we can assume his position as being that Russia started the conflict with a mere 125k men, not the 250k+ most often claimed.

Interestingly, Syrsky later hints another confirmation of this when he states that Russia's assault on Kiev consisted of a mere 9 battalions—this is hardly two brigades. If the main direction was so low in manpower, how did people ever come up with the infamous "250 BTGs" hoax?

But getting back, read what he says again:

Every month they increase by eight to nine thousand, for a year it turns out 120-130 thousand. On January 1, 2025, in Russia, the group of troops participating in the fighting in Ukraine numbered 603 thousand military personnel, today it is already 623 thousand.

This is critical: he's stating that every month, Russia gains a net positive of 8-9k men, and the total grouping grows by 120-130k per year. Just from January 1, 2025, the Russian grouping has increased by 20,000. Where are Western propagandists now, who loudly proclaimed Russia is losing so much men as to be bleeding out a net monthly negative?

Hypothetically assuming the claims of both sides are true: Russia claims to recruit 30,000 men per month; Syrsky claims ~8,000-9,000 is the net gain. This implies 21-22k monthly losses, which is 700+ per day, or perhaps 300 KIA and 300 irrecoverably wounded. However, unlike Ukraine, Russia allows demobilization via contract expiry, and so a large part of those monthly losses are accounted for by soldiers leaving the SMO due to non-renewal of contract. It's difficult to estimate the exact percentage this takes up, but let's say it is hypothetically 50%, then it would reduce Russian KIA to 150 daily average, which is likely not far from reality. It should also be mentioned, Ukrainian officials had previously claimed Russia is lying and is only mobilizing a total of ~20k per month, which would make net losses even smaller.

Syrsky also glumly admits that Russia's total mobilization resource is depressingly vast:

If we take the prepared mobilization resource of the enemy — those who have served in the military, military training-it is about 5 million people. And the mobilization resource as a whole is 20 million. Imagine their potential. And what can we do under these conditions? Of course, mobilization and transfer.

As a last note, Syrsky interestingly admits that the entire Kursk operation was meant to slow down a planned Russian offensive across the entire front:

After that, the enemy regrouped, completed the training of the 44 corps, and in fact, from mid-June, began a strategic operation on the entire front. He began to attack vremenniy Yar, Toretsk, New York, Pokrovsk, Zaporozhye, in the Kupyansky direction, in Limansky, that is, practically everywhere.

The situation was critical, and in these conditions it was necessary to do something to weaken the enemy's onslaught as much as possible. And then, in fact, the idea was born to conduct its counteroffensive where the enemy does not expect it and where it is the weakest.

So, now that Kursk is over, it seems Russia is resuming this offensive across every front, except this time Ukraine has no tricks left.

That being said, there are rumors Ukraine has been building some reserves for a new offensive attempt for the same purpose, but there's a kind of diminishing returns effect each time for what they can muster, amidst shrinking resources.

—

To finish off the frontline updates, the other major area of offensive success has again been on the Zaporozhye line, where Russian forces completed captures along the flanks near Stepove, flattening out the front:

There are numerous other advances to be covered next time, including in Toretsk and in the south Konstantinovka direction.

In the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian channels are even claiming Russia is using "mini submarines" to transfer troops to the growing Oskil river lodgement:

Kupyansk direction, information from "Adequate Kharkiv resident". A story is spreading in Ukrainian channels that the Russian army is using micro-submarines to transfer infantry and ammunition to the bridgehead on the western bank of Oskol. The enemy's Magyar birds are hovering over the river day and night every day, but they don't see any signs of moving forces across the river - not a single watercraft, and yet our infantry appears from somewhere on the west bank. An underground tunnel? No response yet.

—

We've shown the photo last time, but now comes the full video from frontline reporter Kulko about the 1,600+ Ukrainian drones downed by Russian EW warfare on the Kursk front:

Likewise a frontline Zvezda report on Russian assault tactics, utilizing large smoke canisters for concealment:

Some photos of new serially produced BMP-3s and T-72B3Ms, equipped with new anti-drone rubber pads as well as factory standard EW modules:

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8. MAGA-stroika Heralds New Age

The establishment shrieks grow louder each day over Trump's disassembling of the so-called 'Post-War Order'. It is an order that served to benefit only the global finance elites, allowing them to create vast cartel enterprises which could bypass the sovereign laws of any nation to facilitate predatory arbitrage via scams like NAFTA, the WTO, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), et al, where the corporations could make a killing by exploiting their ability to simultaneously impoverish nations while bilking their poor workers.

Last month the Economist proclaimed that the "rupture" of this mythical order on which Western imperialism has balanced for 70 years is 'gaining pace':

Likening the Donald to a mafia don, the Rothschild-owned Economist rag served up a platter of fear-inducing threats from its globalist clientele, like Germany's Merz, who warned that NATO may be dead by this June. Their opening stanza admonishes that we are only now entering a "might-is-right" world, where big powers bully small ones:

Fast approaching is a might-is-right world in which big powers cut deals and bully small ones. Team Trump claims that its dealmaking will bring peace and that, after 80 years of being taken for a ride, America will turn its superpower status into profit. Instead it will make the world more dangerous, and America weaker and poorer.

What a relief it is to know that our now waning 'golden age' existed totally in absence of strong powers like the US bullying other nations.

The Economist takes us for amnesiacs if they believe we can so quickly forget the previous 70 years of American dragooning of virtually every country under the sun, particularly in its own backyard; what with the endless 'interventions' in places like Grenada, Nicaragua, Cuba, Panama, and many more. Bullying seems to only count against one's putative 'allies'—other nations are dehumanized with a different ruleset applied: to lay tariffs on the EU is 'bullying', while bombing Yemen is merely justified 'policing'.

But dispensing with the aperitif—the true dark, revealing heart of the article comes next:

The world will therefore suffer. What Mr Trump does not realise is that America will suffer, too. Its global role has imposed a military burden and an openness to trade that has hurt some American industries. Yet the gains have been much greater. Trade benefits consumers and importing industries. Being the heart of the dollar financial system saves America over $100bn a year in interest bills and allows it to run a high fiscal deficit. The foreign business of American firms is worth $16trn. Those firms thrive abroad because of reasonably predictable and impartial global rules on commerce, rather than graft and transient special favours—an ethos that suits Chinese and Russian firms far better.

This outlines the real core of what the Economist's owners are trying to protect: predatory neoliberal 'free market' globalist imperialism. The anonymous author describes major benefits of this 'system' that Trump purportedly threatens. These 'benefits' primarily go to transnationalist mega-corporations which have long discarded any loyalty to American 'stakeholders', the very ones which generally bank-rolled and subsidized those corporations' rise to power.

"The foreign business of American firms is worth $16trn," the Economist boasts. And what does the average American gain from the market capitalization of these firms, which are effectively no longer American? Nothing but ever-increasing prices and a gutted economy.

As an ironic aside, the very same Economist issue contains the following damning article:

It refutes their own earlier argument by lamenting that Western nations have deteriorated to such a degree that one essentially needs to inherit wealth to buy a house, or generally 'make it' in life. They conclude:

This shift has alarming economic and social consequences, because it imperils not just the meritocratic ideal, but capitalism itself.

Trump threatens to upend this 'prosperous' world order which has led to an entire 'lost generation' drowned in inflationary malaise, cultural decay, and an economic death spiral. It becomes clear that establishmentarians only care about party dogma, no matter how clunkily it tangles with logic and objective reality.

Advocates of dealmaking assume that America can get what it wants by bargaining. Yet as Mr Trump exploits decades-old dependencies, America's leverage will rapidly fall away.

What we see happening now is the world reordering itself along various defensive blocs. After Trump's tariff announcement, an 'emergency'-style meeting of ASEAN nations was called by the bloc's chair Malaysia, scheduled for April 10, in order to craft a unified response.

Malaysia's PM says the region is preparing a 'united ASEAN response' rather than yielding to pressure

Similarly there are now calls from within the EU establishment to push for even more centralization, a long-held dream of Euro-technocrats. The convenient argument is that only a 'unified' Europe can stand up to the big bullies of the world during an era of 'great power politics'.

Two years ago, such calls were already being spearheaded by turbo-globalist bankster prince Mario Draghi:

Critical to Draghi's argument was the following justification—take note:

"Today, the growth model has dissolved, and we need to reinvent a way of growing, but to do this, we need to become a State", he said.

Read more

9. SITREP 4/6/25: Hint of Spring as Russian Pressure Rises on Every Front

Geopolitical news has been relatively slow the past few days so it seemed a good occasion to catch up on frontline advancements, which have been picking up this week.

Russian forces have continued advancing on virtually every front, with new rumors cropping up amongst Ukrainians about various potential offensive directions. One of them is the Kupyansk direction, where Russian forces have reportedly been amassing troops.

The advances there are accelerating. Russian forces entered Kamyanka, capturing a large portion of the town:

A wider view below for perspective, with Kamyanka circled in red, and Kupyansk in yellow:

A bit south of there, Russian control increased toward the direction of Kupyansk itself, seen just at the very bottom of the following map:

One can see that new 'bridgehead' over the Oskil river is growing and growing.

South of there, on what I'll call the Kreminna-Izyum axis, Russian forces are likewise expanding every day:

A wider view for perspective:

In fact, it is on this front that a prominent Ukrainian officer has sounded alarms about the worsening situation:

Platoon Commander of 24th Battalion "Aidar" Stanislav Bunyatov reports worsening situation on Lyman axis: Yampolivka is under Russian control, enemy uses infiltration in 1-2 man groups through forest, making movement hard to track

The specific area of Yampolovka he's referencing in relation to the above maps is here:

In Toretsk, Russia recaptured many positions that Ukraine had recently seized in their short-lived counter-offensive meant to bolster Zelensky during the ceasefire talks.

Just south of there on the Konstantinovka front, Russian forces have bisected a key supply route; from Suriyak:

Situation on Grodovskaya front: During the last 48 hours Russian Army advances west of Oleksandropil taking control over the trench system at the H-20 highway.

And the Zaporozhye front has seen some of the largest advances over the past week, with expansions of territory in multiple directions:

On the Velyka Novosilka front, Russia has expanded as well, capturing the village of Vesele, and expanding westward as well:

Suriyak:

With the latest advance Russian Army reached the Lithium deposit at the eastern outskirts of Shevchenko.

For comparison purposes is a screenshot from my last Sitrep mentioning the area, where you can see Vesele had not been captured:

On Ukrainian TV, an Azov commander warned of a coming Russian offensive in April:

‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia Preparing Offensive in April — Azov Nazi

▪️Two or three Russian divisions have been training at training grounds for over a month. They are well-equipped and have reserves, complains the commander of the 1st assault battalion of the 3rd assault corps "Azov", a terrorist unit of Ukrainian Nazis.

▪️Earlier, the head of the Center for Combating Disinformation Kovalenko said that Russia is preparing for an offensive not in April, but in May.

RVvoenkor

He claims Russia has 2-3 divisions for this task, and the offensive will be in the direction of his 3rd Separate Assault Brigade's area of responsibility, which is on the Lyman-Izyum axis.

Below is the position of this Azov brigade circled in red, with Izyum circled in yellow on the left, and Lyman on the bottom, for geospatial reference (click on images to enlarge):

As confirmation of the above, one Ukrainian analysis channel presented the below video with claims that "huge Russian force" of 30,000 troops are preparing for an offensive to capture Lyman and reach the Oskil river:

Ukrainian post: The Russian so-called willingness for peace is accumulating about 30,000 terrorists In the north of Ukraine for an attack in the Lyman area to reach the Oskil river - according to Reporting From Ukraine.

The latest data on the pace of Russian advances:

05,04,25 SVO Zone - Progress Rate

The average daily rate of advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in the SVO zone in March 2025 was 8.3 km².

Let's do an instructive autopsy on one of the recent advances, to understand how current frontline assault tactics are evolving.

From the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade, formerly of the 2nd Army Corps of the LPR forces. This brigade operates in the south Chasov Yar region, west of Bakhmut. Several days ago they captured Ukrainian positions with a classic armored train of heavily-modified combat vehicles:

Images of the 4th Motorised Rifle Brigade.

A group of tanks approaching Ukrainian positions, the tanks carry anti-mine rollers, extensive additional protection including many electronic warfare systems.

The tanks themselves were used as transports, from which the troops were lowered.

It can be seen the front of the group uses tanks with heavy rollers to neutralize mines and form a safe passage to the target area. Note that the tank is sporting anti-drone EW modules on the roof—different modules to cover as many frequencies as possible:

At the 0:40 second mark of the video you'll note infantry dismounts from beneath the tank shed itself. Which means the main battle tanks are being used to carry assault infantry directly on top of them, in conjunction to other armored personnel carriers.

One of the reasons is due to the ongoing drone threat, it's now often considered ironically safer to ride on top rather than inside of a 'deathbox', because it allows troops to quickly dismount and disperse if drone detectors are warning of a threat, or hits are already incoming.

For these purposes often T-62s are used, since they effectively become transports:

In the context of being mounted on the roof, I think it is preferable to ride on the roof of a modified T-62 rather than a BMP-2 of any modification.

- Better mine protection

- More firepower

- The structure and power of the tank allows for the mounting of thicker handmade armour.

The next most important part is 2:12 of the video.

You'll note the tank is providing heavy smoke cover as troops dismount. The troops then blow Ukrainian trenches and capture dugouts.

The drone threat has increased so much on both sides that any assaulting armored vehicle can be expected to be hit upwards of 10 times by enemy drones. But contrary to propaganda which shows rapidly spliced hits of explosions, most tanks survive a multitude of drone hits before they are disabled.

A Russian 'shed' tank from a recent assault was likely hit several times:

A Ukrainian recording shows a Russian BMP-2 being hit literally ~10 times in a span of seconds, such is the drone proliferation along many fronts:

This is what an assault on armored vehicle looks like in conditions where drones completely control the airspace. Video of the attack attempt by Russian BMP-2, filmed by the 38th Brigade of Ukraine

A Russian unit again shows off the vast amount of drones their electronic warfare has downed near the Kursk border:

Over 1,000 Ukrainian FPV drones were grounded by Russian electronic warfare units near the Kursk border.

They stripped them for parts that'll come in handy for Russian drones, and piled up the empty frames into a sort of improvised installation—kind of a visual on the new realities of modern warfare. The Khokhol keeps trying to hold even one foot in our border area, constantly sending in new drone crews.

Here Russian center group is seen recently training some of these assault tactics:

Russian ground drones are seen with increasing regularity on the front as well:

An update from the American side, showing what new drone units the US Army is forming with the knowledge being gained from the Ukraine war:

At the same time, some reports claim the US Army may slash a massive 90,000 active duty troops due to budget cuts:

The Army is quietly considering a sweeping reduction of up to 90,000 active-duty troops, a move that underscores mounting fiscal pressures at the Pentagon and a broader shift in military strategy away from Europe and counterterrorism, according to three defense officials familiar with the deliberations.

As a last topic, a new Telegraph article making the rounds has proffered the suggestion that Trump will soon get fed up and hit Zelensky with an ultimatum:

The Telegraph, citing its sources, reports that Zelensky will soon face a new ultimatum from Trump.

The ultimatum is: either sign a peace agreement on Russia's terms, or lose US support.

The publication notes that Trump views Ukraine as a "wholly owned US subsidiary."

What's interesting about the above piece, besides the ultimatum claim, is that for the first time we're beginning to see major Western publications begin realistically acknowledging the possibility of Ukraine losing all five of the regions demanded by Putin, including Kherson and Zaporozhye in whole. Until now these long-standing Russian demands were virtually ignored or dismissed out of hand by MSM, which only spoke condescendingly enough about the prospects of Russia keeping Crimea, Lugansk, and Donetsk, let alone the others.

But now, reality is beginning to dawn on them. The Telegraph piece breaks the omerta and broaches the delicate eventuality:

How would the map of Ukraine change after such a one-sided ceasefire? Putin claims five provinces: Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The last three are still only partially occupied by the Russians.

Agreeing to withdraw Ukrainian forces from these regions would increase the Russian-occupied area from about 20pc to roughly 25pc of Ukraine's sovereign territory. That might sound like a sacrifice worth making to stop the slaughter, though it would inevitably deprive Kyiv of yet more economic resources and its fortified front lines.

But such a deal would also mean evacuating millions of civilians. After the well-documented murder, torture and abduction of tens of thousands in Bucha, Mariupol and elsewhere, it is unthinkable that Zelensky would abandon his people to Putin's paramilitaries and secret police. So a war-torn, impoverished country would have to absorb a huge influx of refugees.

Confirmation they understand this would include losing the capital cities of these regions themselves:

Worse, a ceasefire on Putin's terms would crush Ukrainian morale. Some of the cities that would be lost, including Kherson itself, have already been liberated from the Russians, often at great cost.

It's clear that little by little the inevitable acceptance of Russia's full demands is being digested.

But what's particularly fascinating—and egregious—to observe about the above, is the suggestion that "evacuating millions of civilians", particularly after many of them were allegedly 'tortured and murdered', is something so unthinkable, that it beggars the contemporary imagination, and should definitely be resisted by the moral forces of the world. After all, there is simply no place on earth we could even conceive of where millions of people are currently under similar threat of both mass genocide and forced displacement. The highly principled Western press would certainly apprise us of such an obvious parallel, bringing to light the stupendous hypocrisy thereof, were it to exist somewhere on this small rock, no?

And this highly righteous press would unquestionably condemn the mirroring tragedy—if such a hypothetical one existed—with the same pharisaical outrage as exhibited here, right?

….Right?

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10. Trump's "Liberation Day": Another PR Gag, or Global Reorientation Turning Point?

The grand new American reawakening has come, Trump announced with his inaugural 'Day of Liberation'—a Declaration of Economic Independence:

Experts the world over are now butting heads over what this epochal 'reciprocal tariffs' package will mean for the world economy.

Firstly, it must be said that the misnomered program is apparently not one of 'reciprocal' tariffs at all, but rather tariffs doing the job of balancing 'unequal' trade deficits between the US and other countries. As most know by now, Trump's team apparently used a simple equation for determining the tariff rate:

Flexport's team was able to reverse engineer the formula the Administration used to generate the "reciprocal tariffs." It's quite simple, they took the trade deficit the US has with each country and divided it by our imports from that country. The chart below shows the predictions of this formula plotted against the actual new tariff rates.

Not surprisingly there was an early bloodbath in the markets, with the US dollar dramatically falling against major currencies:

The US dollar fell against major global currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, British pound and Russian ruble. However, it strengthened against the Chinese yuan. The decline against the euro is the largest in the last 10 years, over 2%.

But this may all be part of the Trump plan. Jumping to conclusions has become second nature in our modern information field, with instant gratification culture requiring immediate results at all times. Truly epochal shifts take time to turn things around, and come with great short-term pain; that's only natural when undoing decades of economic fraud.

It turns out Trump's entire game plan may have been taken from economic advisor Stephen Miran's playbook. In November, Miran wrote A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, which according to experts precisely parallels what Trump is now attempting to carry out. One of the core tenets of the document is the deliberate devaluation of the US dollar in order to make US exports favorable again to reignite American manufacturing. The entire issue revolves around the famous Triffin's dilemma, which notes:

A country whose currency is the global reserve currency, held by other nations as foreign exchange (FX) reserves to support international trade, must somehow supply the world with its currency in order to fulfill world demand for these FX reserves. This supply function is nominally accomplished by international trade, with the country holding reserve currency status being required to run an inevitable trade deficit.

To summarize the above for the laymen, a country which holds the world's reserve currency faces a significant dilemma wherein its national trade policy and monetary policy are effectively at odds against each other. In order to keep its currency as reserve status—and reap all the geopolitical benefits this creates—the country must hamstring its own economic output by running a huge trade deficit, which means the country imports far more than it exports, which hurts—or in the case of the US, kills—domestic manufacturing.

Why must a country run a trade deficit to retain its global reserve currency status? Because when your currency is the global reserve currency, the entire world constantly hungers for it in order to use it in all the various countries' international trade between each other. The only way to keep those countries constantly supplied with dollars is for Americans to buy tons of foreign imports, which effectively sends dollars to those countries, since these purchases are made with dollars. If the countries instead bought a ton of US exports, they would be paying for those exports with dollars, which means all the dollars would be sent back to the US, and global nations would have a severe lack of US dollars. What would happen then? They would have no choice but to trade with their own currencies, which would mean the collapse of the dollar reserve system.

A simpler example: if a French person buys a $50,000 Ford truck and imports it to France, that's $50,000 USD that leaves France and goes back to the US, lowering France's dollar holdings. If an American buys a $50,000 French Peugeot to import it to the US, he sends his $50,000 USD to France, which increases its dollar holdings.

As seen, the only way to maintain the dollar's reserve status is to make sure US dollars are constantly flooding the world, which can only be done by running a massive trade deficit where imports of foreign goods (outflow of USD) far outweigh exports of domestic goods (inflow of USD).

This contextualizes the Miran paper's focus on the 'overvaluation of the dollar', particularly from the aspect of national security. Miran rightly notes that US national security is degraded in the current circumstances, by the erosion of manufacturing potential which leaves the US incapable of producing its defense imperatives. Miran's thesis further provides for the tariffs being a tool not merely as some quick-and-cheap form of 'revenue', as some assume, but for the purpose of favorably rebalancing global currency valuations.

Tariffs as a Lever: Tariffs are a primary tool to address trade imbalances, not just for revenue but to force currency adjustments and protect domestic industries.

And the above does not mean Trump's latest move intends to bring an end to the dollar reserve system. On the contrary, he intends to continue it in a more 'fair' manner. From the paper:

Despite the dollar's role in weighing heavily on the U.S. manufacturing sector, President Trump has emphasized the value he places on its status as the global reserve currency, and threatened to punish countries that move away from the dollar. I expect this tension to be resolved by policies that aim to preserve the status of the dollar, but improve burden sharing with our trading partners.

For the crowd which crows that tariffs hurt the American consumer, who is forced to bear the burden of the costs, the paper outlines how that may not be the case:

In essence, the devaluation of foreign currency can offset the duties on imports. You'll note this appears to contradict the premise of devaluing the dollar as well, but that's where it gets much trickier. As I understand it, the paper proposes to strike a fine balance, explaining that if adversarial countries choose to devalue their currencies as a reaction—to boost their own exports—the pain could be 'offset' by the explanation above. Friendly countries, on the other hand, could agree to help devalue the dollar in what Miran imagines as a 'Mar-a-Lago Accords' agreement, akin to the Plaza Accords, or even the Bretton Woods agreement.

Miran also envisions the tariffs as just the first stage of a more elaborate operation. The tariffs could be used merely as the initial bullwhip to bring countries into negotiations, wherein Trump will then switch to a carrot-on-stick approach in alleviating or removing tariffs on countries which agree to finance 'significant industrial investments' into the US manufacturing sector.

Because of this, different stages of the process are expected, like the dollar first strengthening, then eventually weakening:

In any case, because President Trump has shown tariffs are a means by which he can successfully extract negotiating leverage—and revenue—from trading partners, it is quite likely that tariffs are used prior to any currency tools. Because tariffs are USD-positive, it will be important for investors to understand the sequencing of reforms to the international trading system. The dollar is likely to strengthen before it reverses, if it does so.

Miran does note the dangers, however:

Fourth, these policies may supercharge efforts of those looking to minimize exposure to the United States. Efforts to find alternatives to the dollar and dollar assets will intensify. There remain significant structural challenges with internationalizing the renminbi or inventing any sort of "BRICS currency," so any such efforts will likely continue to fail, but alternative reserve assets like gold or cryptocurrencies will likely benefit.

Now the main argument revolves around whether US has a manufacturing backbone to even revive anymore. Many argue that at this point, things are 'too far gone'—infrastructure has crumbled for too many decades, entire generations have lost the knowledge to build things, and perhaps worst of all, the culture in America has dwindled to become a kind of poisoned well that has disincentivized the newest generation of men from taking the types of jobs that would lead to some imagined manufacturing boom or golden age.

As one thread propounds:

In 1973 the US produced 111.4 million tons of steel. It employed 650,000 people. The industry now employs 142,000 and the US produces 79.5 million tons - which admittedly is better than the nadir of only 60 million tons under Reagan

Figures I've seen suggest there are now nearly 5 million less workers in the manufacturing sector than there were in the year 2000, despite the fact the US population has grown by a whopping 60 million people since then.

In many ways, what Trump is attempting to do is strongarm the world into a modern form of imperial neo-feudalism, where vassal states pay handsomely for the privilege of lowering their 'protection' racket fees. Some will argue this is an equitable system; in Anglo terms, perhaps. China envisions quite a different global order, without the need for mafia threats and coercion.

Also important to note is that Trump's multi-phase plan includes the gradual replacement of the IRS with the ERS—or External Revenue Service. Trump's Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnik said as much many times, with increasing emphasis most recently; listen to the two clips below:

Trump makes a bit of a mistake in the end of his statement above—he claims tariffs would have saved us from the Great Depression, omitting that the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs in fact desperately tried, and arguably made things worse. He corrects himself, but says by then it was "too late" to act—a damning appraisal just as easily levied on his own nascent attempts to intervene at the Empire's terminal arc.

A 'fact check' claimed it would be materially impossible to replace tax revenues with tariffs:

Well, that may be true, but only because US government expenditures are currently so absurdly high that such massive tax revenues are necessary to fund the government, and still at a huge deficit at that. Major cuts are needed to gut federal spending to levels originally foreseen—one can easily start with the bloated $1T defense budget. Once the budget is brought to a fiscally responsible level, then tariffs can potentially be made to handle the rest.

With its work force already slated to be slashed by Trump, the IRS is now terrified:

The agency claims that taxpayers who are anticipating the IRS' shortfall of agents will take the chance in not filing their returns this year, with the hopes there'll soon be no one left to audit them:

The IRS has "noticed an uptick of online chatter from individuals declaring their intention to not pay taxes this year," the Washington Post reports, citing three people with knowledge of tax projections.

It added that individuals were "wagering that auditors will not examine their accounts" amid DOGE's plans to downsize the IRS by nearly 20 percent by May 15.

As stated earlier, many believe Trump's grandiose vision to be too little too late, but a counterargument is that the world is now in a race to the bottom, with European nations well ahead of the pack. Trump may not rekindle an American golden age, but his bold and drastic actions will likely tighten the yoke around European vassals, ensuring American supremacy in that quarter of the world for years to come.

The big question that will remain is how competitive can America ever realistically become against China. It's difficult to imagine America ever catching up without resorting to total war in setting China back by several decades, which is likely why we'll continue seeing major provocations there. On the first count, at least, Economist agrees in their latest:

As a last note, it was claimed that Russia was not included amongst Trump's tariffs because sanctions on Russia have resulted in little trade that can be measurably tariffed. Several outlets rebutted this explanation:

The US did not impose new tariffs against Russia and lied (!) about the reasons for the absence of such tariffs, — Le Monde

▪️The White House says that "US sanctions already prevent any significant trade with Russia," but in fact the US-Russia trade balance in 2024 was about $3.5 billion . This is more than with Mauritius and Brunei , against which tariffs of 40% and 24%, respectively, have been imposed.

▪️If Russia and Belarus were on the list of countries subject to new customs duties, the tariffs would be 42% and 24%, respectively.

➖"The US still trades more with Russia than with countries like Mauritius or Brunei, which were on Trump's tariff list," Axios also wrote, refuting the words of US officials.

If true, this would be an interesting development, as it would mean the US-Russia rapprochement is much deeper than assumed, and Trump could be banking on ingratiating himself to Russia as a way to truly turn the world on its head with an unprecedented eventual partnership between the two superpowers.

This comes amidst Putin's personal presidential economic development envoy Kirill Dmitriev landing in D.C. today, along with full media circuit: Video 1, Video 2. Dmitriev is a Kiev-born, US-raised, Goldman Sachs-trained financier who's got a unique handle on the lay of the land. His recent rise to prominence clearly indicates the coming together of Russian and American business interests and thawing of relations, which could be a positive sign for Trump's long term global reorientation strategy.

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