Simplicius The Thinker

1. Trump Storms Out the Gate, But Already Falters on Ukraine

As promised, Trump came out the gate swinging—or in his case, signing over 100 executive orders to immediately neuter many DEI initiatives, take away clearance from ex-Biden officials, and suspending foreign aid to all countries for 90 days, which includes Ukraine.

A Ukrainian journalist who allegedly met with Washington Post staff reported that a full reboot was in order on Ukraine:

"Alarming: The Pentagon has fired and suspended everyone who was responsible for Ukraine and aid to it. The US Department of Defense is in a complete reboot"

▪️ There will be a new format of relations with Ukraine, it's all a bit alarming, - said propagandist close to the Armed Forces of Ukraine R. Bochkala following a meeting with journalists from The Washington Post.

The below is not yet corroborate, but it claims that all shipments to Ukraine have been suspended:

In the Pentagon, everyone who was responsible for Ukraine has been fired and suspended. They will all face an investigation into the use of US budget money.

The US this morning in Washington, withdrew all applications to contractors for logistics through Rzeszow, Constanta and Varna. At NATO bases in Europe, all shipments to Ukraine have been suspended and closed.

According to foreign military analysts, this is on the order of several thousand tons of weapons and equipment.

However, the most interesting development vis-a-vis Ukraine was hearing Trump's first words as president regarding the situation. You'll recall for months we were forced to listen to claims from various mouthpieces like Kellogg and Waltz who appeared to be speaking on Trump's behalf, though we could never be sure. But now President Trump has issued his first nuggets to give us an idea of the direction things might go—and they are interesting.

Firstly, a far more staid and reeled-in Trump forewent the now expected blustering bravado about marching up to Putin and forcing him to end the war in a single day. Instead, in an uncharacteristically quiet and uncertain tone, Trump remarked that negotiations would depend entirely on whether Putin is interested or not:

Unfortunately, Trump exposes his complete ignorance and lack of credibility when it comes to the Ukrainian conflict by subsequently complaining that Russia has suffered an outrageous one million dead soldiers in the war. How can anyone possibly count on the man so ill-informed to be the savior that miraculously ends the war? We can understand a little flourish for the media to dress it up a bit, make things seem more dire for effect—but peremptorily citing such numbers just makes Trump look sadly disconnected, which further colors any of his efforts toward the war as similarly half-assed; that's not to even mention his claim that Spain is a member of BRICS.

He goes on to say that Putin is destroying Russia by not making a deal, and the way he says it almost feels as if Trump is now convinced that Putin has already made up his mind not to "make a deal". He further claims that Russia's economy is in ruins, and most notably, says that he would consider sanctioning or tariffing Russia:

This is the first time we've gotten confirmation straight from Trump himself, rather than Kellogg and the like, that he is in fact considering the 'nuclear option' of playing 'hardball' with Russia, should Putin refuse to bend the knee. And in fact, in a different interview he made it even more clear:

He's asked plainly whether he'll sanction Russia if Vladimir Putin doesn't come to the negotiating table, and his response is: "That sounds likely."

So there we have it. Trump the 'peace maker' has shown his cards and clarifies the possible directions he intends to take. Which means some of the earlier claims from Keith Kellogg appear to have been accurate in regard to Trump trying to put the vise on Putin should the peace deal turn sour. There is some small chance that Trump continues to merely grandstand with the usual bravado for reporters but in reality still seeks a way to dump Kiev completely.

You'll note in the first video above, he makes a very interesting comment which slips under the surface of the rest of his statement. Listen again to when he's describing Russia's failed war effort, then says: "I mean…it's a big machine so, eventually things will happen…"

What he appears to mean is that, despite his little 'dressing up' of the putative 'failed' war effort, he's acknowledging that it's not so failed after all because Russia's war machine is at this point so big and powerful that eventually Ukraine will not be able to resist at all; it appears Trump is aware of this fine point after all.

Interestingly, this jibes with a new German command report from Major General Christian Freuding, who drops a shocking bombshell that again flies totally in the face of the prevailing Western narrative on Russia:

Link to original Welt article.

"Russia is building up its forces beyond the requirements of the current conflict!"

— The head of Germany's military task force on assistance for Ukraine, Major General Christian Freuding.

Freuding essentially says that Russia is now building reserve armies by generating more manpower and armor than it's losing. Recall Shoigu's reserve armies I covered a long time ago, where much of Russia's generated manpower was going rather than merely sustaining losses on the front:

Freuding also states, by the way, that Russia now builds 3,000 UMPK glide bombs per month, and 'procures' 3.7M artillery shells per year:

Now, sensing the pitfall Trump may sleepwalk into, top Trumper Steve Bannon has warned that Trump is in danger of creating his own "Vietnam":

Donald Trump is in danger of failing to make a clean break with Ukraine and could be sucked deeper into Vladimir Putin's war — just as Richard Nixon was stung in his attempts to pull out of Vietnam — Trump's former chief strategist Steve Bannon warned in a wide-ranging interview with POLITICO.

He correctly notes:

"If we aren't careful, it will turn into Trump's Vietnam. That's what happened to Richard Nixon. He ended up owning the war and it went down as his war not Lyndon Johnson's," Bannon said.

And it's true: Trump knows China is eating the US' lunch on the economic front and as others like Rubio have pointed out, the US has a very limited time window to somehow change the calculus in a way that keeps it in the race with China. If Trump's vanity keeps him from detaching himself from Ukraine he risks doing the dance with Russia to the point of US exhaustion while an unhindered China laps them all.

Russia may not be China but on Russia's home turf—which Ukraine essentially is—the 'superpower' US does not have the advantage and will find itself sucked into a war of attrition it cannot win. That's not to mention that rumors swirl around Zelensky preparing a false flag of some kind to drag Trump into the war as much as possible, for instance from Legitimny channel:

#hearings
We confirm colleagues information that in February Zelensky and OP are preparing some provocative events that, according to their idea, will change Trump's attitude and force him to participate in the Ukrainian crisis.
Zelensky will do everything to extend the game, as he has been given the task of prolonging the conflict to prevent Trump from ending the war. They will come up with any new space requirements that will be unrealistic to fulfill.

Compounding all this is Trump's earlier boasts of the Russian economy set to implode being total bunk—here's the latest contravening data. Note it's not even oil and gas revenue that's blazing skyward:

Russian budget revenues rose to a record level in December, despite new "strongest" sanctions , - Bloomberg

▪️Russia's revenues rose to a record last month even after the United States imposed a powerful new package of sanctions on the banking sector aimed at disrupting foreign trade payments and curbing export earnings.

▪️ Total revenue in December was more than 4 trillion rubles ($40 billion), up 28% from the same month last year, according to the Finance Ministry.

▪️This is the highest level recorded in the ministry's data since January 2011.

▪️The US and its allies are trying to stop the Kremlin's war machine by restricting export revenues, and in late 2024 they imposed additional sanctions on Russia's energy sector and the banks that service it. Still, oil and gas revenues rose by a third in December from a year earlier and are up 26% in 2024. Other revenue sources showed similar gains for the full year, driven by taxes and dividends amid robust economic growth.

▪️ "The volume of non-oil and gas revenues in 2024 significantly exceeded the estimates set out in the budget law for 2025-2027, including from the largest tax sources," the Finance Ministry said in a statement.

▪️The increase in revenues allowed the government to spend more than ever before - total expenditure for the month amounted to 7.15 trillion rubles, breaking the previous record set in December 2022.

RVvoenkor

That's not to mention Patrushev's new interview wherein he expresses his learned view that Ukraine may "cease to exist" this year:

Lastly, Zelensky made another interesting statement. We had just spoken about his assertion that Russia has 600k+ troops in the SMO, while Ukraine allegedly has 800k+. In a new video from the Davos forum, Zelensky again reiterates that Russia has 600k+ but then says something which proves some of my earliest reports on this blog about Russia's force dispositions at the onset of the SMO:

He states that the current 600k+ force is up to 4.5 times larger than Russia's initial force. Doing the math, 600k is 4.5 times more than 133,000—or using his 4x number we can say 150,000.

My earliest readers will recall I was the lone voice proving with numbers that Russia's opening foray into the SMO consisted of a tiny force of a mere ~70-130k rather than the massive 250-400k claimed everywhere else as part of the official Western historiography. This was the main reason for why Russia was forced to retreat from places like Kherson and Kharkov after early gains, when Ukraine had force-mobilized upwards of a million troops while Russia was operating with a tiny raid structure. Now we have confirmation from Zelensky himself. And he even indirectly confirms General Freuding's earlier claims of Russia's continued strengthening of forces when he says in the video above that if Russia is not stopped now, it will soon have an army ten times larger than the 2022 one, rather than a mere 4.5x larger.

For now it's clear that Trump's admin likely has no real plan to negotiate with Russia and is completely misinformed by its intelligence assets. As I wrote many months ago, the only real question will be not whether negotiations will work, but what Trump will do once Putin blanks all his negotiations offers.

One supposes that one possibility is that Trump may make a kind of 'half effort' in applying 'punitive sanctions' against Russia only to appease the deep state neocons and warmongering media, but with the full knowledge that it won't do much and that Russia will overrun Ukraine either way. At least, if Trump were truly more devious and ingenius than we give him credit for, this is one avenue he could pursue. But more likely Trump will use the Ukraine situation to play various concessions off of Europe, just as he's been leveraging threats against Panama, Greenland, and the like to get Europe to fall in line.

In the end it will have to come down to which imperative of Trump's is the stronger—his will for personal glory and the fear of tarnishing his vanity by being portrayed as a 'loser' in Ukraine? Or his great desire to fashion a legacy as a historic 'peace maker' at all costs.

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2. Reflections on the Eve of Change

Tomorrow is the big day: the inauguration we thought would never come—and may yet not. It felt somehow obligatory to write up some reflections on what it could mean, where the country and world at large might be headed, given the perceived tailwinds.

To set the appropriate mood, here's TIME magazine's new cover on the right, compared to their previous one from 2017:

One Tweeter writes:

Check out the two TIME Magazine covers. The first from 2017. The second from today. In 2017, the narrative was of a man ignoring all the problems and issues. Idle hands. No concern. Oblivious. Messed up hair. Bad weather beating down inside the office. In 2025, the message is the near opposite. He's actively removing all remnants of Biden (ed: Biden's famous aviator glasses seen flying). Focused. Moving. Determined expression and head tilt. In control. Bad weather outside the office, not inside. Same guy. Same agenda, though even more aggressive. Why do you think they have a difference perspective?

And here are some of Trump's planned Day One executive orders:

SOME OF TRUMP'S EXECUTIVE ORDERS, DAY 1:

- Begin deportation raids

- Declare national emergency at the Southern border

- Jan. 6 pardons

- 'Deep state purge'

- End Biden's DEI directives

- Roll back limits on offshore drilling "Your head will spin when you see what's going to happen," Trump said. -Source

After participating in a Zoom call with Steve Bannon, Alex Krainer confirmed in his latest piece that Trump's team intends to "go on the offensive from day one":

Alex Krainer's Substack Next week start the days of thunder Last night I had the privilege of being included in a Zoom call with Steve Bannon, former investment banker and media executive, host of the "War Room" show and chief political strategist during the first seven months of Donald Trump's first term in office. Much of what Bannon presented wasn't surprising, but what seemed significant was that he confirmed that Trump and his team will go on the offensive from day one in office. "The days of thunder begin on Monday," he said, and the world will not be the same again. Bannon wasn't talking about Trump going on the offensive against the Chinese, Iranians or the Russians. Trump and his team are preparing to take on the "they… Read more 7 days ago · 286 likes · 198 comments · Alex Krainer

"The days of thunder begin on Monday," he said, and the world will not be the same again. Bannon wasn't talking about Trump going on the offensive against the Chinese, Iranians or the Russians. Trump and his team are preparing to take on the "they."

Granted, Bannon has proven himself to be a rather profligate hype-man, his tongue often writing checks he can't realistically cash, as in the many boastful promises of certain victory or 'take-no-prisoner offensives' against the 'deep state'.

That being said, it's clear that Trump has already won the early rounds against the cabal which had promised in no uncertain terms to shower his inaugural path with a string of dangerous obstacles—from the now-dispelled conviction sentencing that threatened to throw him behind bars on the eve of office, to the threats that Democrats would not certify electoral votes which likewise came to naught. Trump even seems to be ahead of the curve on any final tries against him, ordering the last minute relocation of the swearing in ceremony indoors—ostensibly due to the forecasted 'bitter cold', but perhaps more plausibly for safety reasons, lest he give the cabal another open shot at him.

The fact is, Trump's imminent inauguration marks a turning point of a new global era. We've spoken of it countless times: The world is on the brink of vast sweeping changes. The reason? The previous era's ideological arc has run its course and reached its natural limits, grounding itself on a shoal like a keeling ship on turbulent seas.

Every nation under the West's thumb has reached 'escape velocity' in its awakening to the secret history of the world order since the time of the British Empire's colonial supremacy. The 'secret' I speak of is one both unspoken and codified, in the latter versions one can consult initiatives like Kissinger's Memorandum 200 to get an idea.

The West's blindness to its own self-devouring cruel hypocrisy was highlighted this week by Marco Rubio's egregious, history-bastardizing statement on China's rise:

To summarize: He smugly lauds the West for "welcoming" China into the global fold, referring to the WTO accession engineered by the US for the sole purpose of enslaving China for its cheap labor in order to profit Western corporations, at the expense of both the Chinese and the undercut-and-gutted American workers.

Rubio goes on to chastize China for being 'ungrateful' for this bounteous 'opportunity' so altruistically bestowed from on high by the US and its corporate-financier owners.

But his following statement drags him fully into deplorable territory.

Read more

3. SITREP 1/17/25: Russia-Iran's Landmark Agreement Imitated in Starmer's Last Minute Kiev Stunt

A big day of future-securing meetings as Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian touched down in Moscow to sign the awaited comprehensive economic and defense agreement with Putin:

The signed agreement between Russia and Iran contains a clause on strengthening cooperation in the field of security and defense, as stated in the first article of the document.

The third article stipulates that if one of the parties is subjected to aggression, the other should not provide any assistance to the aggressor.

Russia and Iran also agreed on cooperation between intelligence agencies in order to strengthen national security and counter common threats.

Article 5

2. Military cooperation between the Contracting Parties covers a wide range of issues, including the exchange of military and expert delegations, calls of warships and vessels to ports.

4. The Contracting Parties consult and cooperate in the field of countering common military threats and threats to security of a bilateral and regional nature.

Article 8

1. The Contracting Parties protect the rights and legitimate interests of their citizens in the territory of the Contracting Parties.

Russian analyst Starshe Edda provides commentary on the difference between the two strategic partnerships with North Korea and now Iran:

The key difference between Russia's treaties with Iran and the DPRK is the issue of alliance. The treaty signed with Pyongyang – unconditionally union, it contains more substantial obligations of the parties for military support than most of these documents today, including the notorious 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, which formed the NATO bloc. In accordance with Article 4, the parties expressly, without any reservations about consultations and so on, undertake to provide each other with military and other assistance by all available means.

The agreement with Iran is different. Its article 3 provides for an obligation, if one of the parties is attacked, not to support the aggressor and to help resolve the conflict.

This is a fundamental difference in the current warring world, and the grounds for it are clear: Russia and Iran have fairly different views on the world, including in the Middle East, and it would be unnecessary to fit in with Tehran's obligation to cover it in the event of an attack – most Iranian conflicts lie outside the field of Russian interests. As well as vice versa.

But here is what Iran and [Russia] can help each other – including in terms of circumventing the – sanctions regimes, we will help each other. Including in the production of weapons.

At the same time Keir Starmer made a 'surprise visit' to Kiev where he attempted to upstage Russia by likewise signing a "100-year partnership" with Ukraine, pledging billions of UK citizens' tax dollars:

Starmer promised to 'explore options for [British] military bases in Ukraine'. The full agreement on the official UK Gov site can be read here. The common understanding is that Starmer was sent by his globalist masters to prevent Zelensky from falling under Trump's persuasion for ending the war. The Europeans in general are now terrified of being 'locked out' of Ukrainian negotiations as Trump stands to bulldoze them out of the way and deal with Putin directly, giving Europe as always no say in its own future.

This came on the heels of reports that the UK and France have continued 'secret meetings' regarding peace keeper troop deployments to Ukraine.

Even the Telegraph authors seem dubious given the dismal yearly depletion the British armed forces have suffered of late, with its army reportedly down to its lowest troop count since Napoleon's time:

Putting British troops on the ground in Ukraine comes amid a backdrop of cuts to the Armed Forces which had called its credibility as a fighting force into question.

The number of Army soldiers fell below 73,000 in May for the first time since the Napoleonic era as all three military services have struggled to recruit and retain personnel in recent years.

Meanwhile, new reports claim that France is secretly preparing a contingent of 2,000 troops to enter Ukraine and has conducted the 'Perseus' war games which apparently simulated fighting on the Belarus front:

This is interesting for two reasons:

Firstly, because Belarusian generals have now come out saying there are secret Ukrainian plans to seize parts of Belarus and overthrow the government to expand the war, and secondly, because Russian sources report despite 'claims' the exercises simulated the Belarusian border, they in actuality imitated the Dnieper River area:

Intelligence online writes that France has secretly trained 2,000 of its troops to enter Ukraine. In the fall of 2024, secret exercises Perseus were held, which practiced the deployment of French special forces on the territory of Ukraine to repel an attack from Belarus. However, for some reason, the exercises were conducted in an area imitating the Dnieper River.

Military Watch above corroborates this as the part of the Dnieper north of Kiev. What's further interesting about that is the Telegraph article specifically notes British plans as including a potential Kiev deployment zone, as one of three proposed plans:

The Telegraph writes about three scenarios for the deployment of a contingent of British troops in Ukraine. Create points along the buffer zone, patrolled by fighter jets and attack helicopters and rapid reaction forces in the rear.

In the second option, they want to create a line of defense around Kiev, which will release some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the front line. And the third and most likely option is to send troops to the west of Ukraine under the cover of a powerful air defense system and conduct training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there.

To me, this is all nothing more than the same old attempts to come up with a joint plan for protecting Ukraine from falling when the point comes that Russia totally overruns AFU lines, and the AFU begins collapsing en masse. They say so themselves in the above Telegraph article:

A coalition of the willing could be formed to create a defensive cordon around the Ukrainian capital, relieving Ukraine's own forces to be sent forward to stem any Russian advance.

This is a theory which has been discussed by officials and strategists in Western capitals, but is seen as the nuclear option, one which very few are genuinely willing to countenance.

The "allies" know they have a limited number of troops at their disposal, so they're desperately trying to decide whether it's more efficacious to protect the Dnieper zone, the capital of Kiev, or something else—like Odessa. In truth, Russia won't care much because Article 5 doesn't apply to Ukrainian territory, and the prospective NATO contingents in Ukraine won't have much logistics backends or local infrastructure to deal with a major Russian push.

Zelensky himself just embarrassed NATO even further by declaring that all of Europe stands no chance against Russia alone without Ukrainian help—listen carefully below, it's one of the few times Zelensky doesn't lie:

Two nights ago Ukraine launched arguably their largest drone attack of the entire war on Russia, spurring concerns that all those promised Western 'programs' to supercharge Ukraine's drone production have finally come into full bloom:

Since yesterday evening, the regions of the Russian Federation have been subjected to the first massive attack by missiles and UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least 200 drones in total. The greatest damage was caused to the Saratov region - most of the UAVs were shot down, but some flew. The fuel and energy complex - Saratov Oil Refinery-was attacked. For the second time in a week, the Kristall oil depot of the Federal Reserve in Engels was hit. At the moment, the elimination of consequences continues at both sites.

In Tatarstan, Kazan was under attack, strikes by drones "Fierce" and "Inferno". Under attack was the base of liquefied gases at the Kazanorgsintez facility, tanks are burning. Drone arrivals were seen in the residential area and Aviastroitelny-near the S. P. Gorbunov plant, where enemy drones were flying. For the first time, the work of air defense was noted in the city of Almetyevsk, several hundred kilometers southeast of Kazan - oil facilities were under attack.

In the Bryansk region, the Bryansk chemical plant in the village of Seltso was attacked.For the attack, the APU used ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, as well as UAVs.The exact damage to the company is not yet clear.About 35 more UAV arrivals were recorded in the Orel region, Voronezh, Kursk and Tula region.14 drones were shot down over the Millerovsky and Tarasovsky districts of the Rostov region.

This comes right after the NY Times announced a new secret program by the US to fund Ukraine's drone development to the tune of an additional $1.5 billion black budget dollars, not ledgered in the previous Biden admin funds. And this program had only run from 2024 onward, rather than the beginning of the war:

The New York Times, citing a declassified document, writes about investing $ 1.5 billion in the development of UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from September 2024. This is among other secret infusions that we don't know about. According to Jake Sullivan, the US national Security Adviser, this investment had a "real strategic impact" on the course of hostilities.

The money was allocated for the purchase of spare parts, the process is controlled by CIA special agents sent to Ukraine.
Large-scale investment in UAVs was accelerated, which is interesting - after the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the fall of 2022 in the Kharkiv region, when the limits of "normal capabilities of Ukraine" were reached.

On top of that, Forbes reports the long awaited Anduril 'Hyperscale' drone plant is finally going up in Ohio, due to become the 'largest ever' infrastructure project in Ohio history:

The new facility, announced by Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, Lt. Governor Jon Husted, and JobsOhio, and represents the biggest new project ever in Ohio's history by number of employees.

The article however delivers a dose of reality as well: Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks, chief 'champion' of the Replicator project, is leaving, which essentially puts the project's future in doubt. That's after ex-Google head Eric Schmidt had already last year admitted that much of their initiatives like Project White Stork had failed due to the inability to gain enough consensus and momentum on the projects from the various involved partners. The Anduril factory above is only beginning construction—who knows when it can actually realistically hire and train those 4,000 workers and be up and running.

Either way, ostensibly in response to Ukraine's attacks Russia launched its own series of withering strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure:

In response to ATACMS strikes and an attempt to disrupt gas supplies through the "Turkish Stream," the Russian Armed Forces targeted gas and energy infrastructure in Ukraine, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

They successfully hit the ground infrastructure of Ukraine's largest underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lvov region.

Not mentioned was that several thermal power plants were again reportedly hit as well. On top of which, another training center was hit by Iskanders in Krivoy Rog, with footage showing strewn bodies all around the building as well as various reports of potential NATO trainers being killed, like this one:

❗️Russian missile strikes in Krivoy Rog killed a Danish F-16 instructor.

In today's strikes on the aviation college in Krivoy Rog, a NATO pilot instructor from Denmark was killed. His friends confirmed to death on social media today.

The Dane had allegedly leaked his location to a local prostitute. — via Mission Z

But despite the perhaps overly ambitious promises of Anduril and the like, Ukraine has been making innovations in the drone department. I reported a couple weeks back about how Ukraine's new naval drones were armed with Soviet R-73 air-to-air missiles, and had already successfully shot down Russian helicopters near Crimea.

Now a Tor air defense system was hit by a Ukrainian naval drone which was acting as a mothership for FPVs. The naval drone delivered the FPVs to Crimea, presumably also acting as their signal extender, allowing them to then take off to find and destroy the shore-based Tor unit.

That said, Russia has momentarily jumped far ahead in the drone race, with announcements claiming that the fiber-optic 'Vandal' drones are set to be mass-produced in five separate factories:

A network of assembly plants for Prince Vandal Novgorodsky drones is being created in Russia

The facilities will be located in the European part of the country and in the area of ​​the special military operation. The laboratories there will receive assembly kits for manufacturing drones for a specific combat mission.

The FPV kamikaze drones, controlled via fiber-optic cable, developed in Novgorod by the Ushkuynik center are resistant to electronic warfare. They began to arrive to the Russian military in August 2024. The devices can be used at any time of the day thanks to the equipment of a camera with a thermal imager.

Now Russia continues pushing ahead, recently showing the latest natively produced AI-powered FPVs being rolled out en masse:

Despite all that, on the ground Russian forces continue plowing along to the eternal chagrin of Western commentators:

As hinted at by Roepcke above, Russian forces have now cut one of the major arteries to Pokrovsk, with the battle for the city proper set to begin soon:

Ukrainian experts write their forecasts for how the assault will take shape:

How is the enemy going to capture Pokrovsk and Mirnograd?

The text will be my personal vision of the operation, in several parts. Taking into account how the enemy sees its conduct.

I will note right away that no information that could harm the Defense Forces will be published.

The diagram shows the enemy's vision.

1. It is obvious that first they will try to cut all the main routes connecting Pokrovsk with the Dnieper region.

There are two of them - to Mezhova and Pavlograd.

The first has already been lost in the Kotlyny-Udachny area. The enemy must capture both villages to stabilize the wedge.

And no matter how simple it looks on the diagram - in reality, this requires the allocation of resources comparable to an entire combined-arms army.

Next - they will need to capture Hryshyne (Grishina). A large village, divided by a river and heights. Resources are needed no less.

In the next part we will look at all the other aspects of the operation. It will be tomorrow.

👆👉 Ukrainian Post

Toretsk has now been essentially entirely captured to ever more wails:

The above is already out of date by a couple days, here's the new map:

But the big one has been Velyka Novosilka, where Russian forces have effected almost an entire encirclement, as well as begun to push into the town itself from the southwest.

Suriyak writes:

Ukrainian Army can no longer hold Velyka Novosilka for much longer. During the last days Russian Army completely developed the operational encirclement around the largest locality in the west of Donetsk oblast. Similar to what happened in Selydovo the Russians begin to assault the town from an axis forcing the retreat of the remaining troops to the fields and forest lines which are the last escape routes while drones and artillery are chasing them. The gates to Dnipropetrovsk oblast are already open on this front.

Wider view:

That can't possibly hold out for much longer.

In the ever-ping-ponging expectations of Trump's approach to 'ending the war' we have the latest which again claims that Trump's team plans to play hardball with Russia by putting the sanctions squeeze on Putin to get him to the table—according to 'anonymous insider sources' as usual:

Trump's team is developing a massive sanctions strategy to force a deal between Russia and Ukraine in the coming months

▪️At the same time, the United States intends to put pressure on Iran and Venezuela, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.

▪️Two main approaches are considered:

➖a set of policy recommendations - if the future administration believes that a resolution to the war in Ukraine is in sight - "includes some good-faith measures in favor of sanctioned Russian oil producers that could help broker a peace deal." That is, easing sanctions against Russia,

➖new sanctions and increased pressure if it becomes clear that Russia refuses to end the war.

▪️For now, these plans of the Trump team are in the early stages and, ultimately, depend on the president-elect himself.

➖"Trump's advisers will ultimately wrestle with the same question as the Biden administration - how to avoid major supply and price disruptions in the oil market at a time when Washington has imposed sweeping sanctions on the world's three largest producers. Another challenge: calibrating the right balance between using the tools of economic warfare and the desire to preserve the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency," Bloomberg comments.

RVvoenkor

Well, this is why Russia is now signing various comprehensive deals with friendly states, sanctions-proofing itself for this very possibility. Russia has been the most sanctioned country on earth for several years running now and a few more from Trump certainly would not bring Putin 'to his knees' and suddenly cause him to cry uncle on Ukraine.

Ex-Aidar deputy commander Ihor Mosiychuk gives his perspective on how these 'negotiations' will go:

—

As a last note, Zelensky made a very interesting statement in regard to a question we've been delving into here for a long time—that of Ukraine's mystified manpower numbers. First for context, recall that recently Rada MP Goncharenko wondered where the "million-man" army had went, and why there is a supposed 'troop disparity' with Russian forces when Russia is said to only have 700k men according to Syrsky himself.

Here Zelensky mind-bogglingly states that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in fact have 880,000 men and Russia a mere ~600,000. What a relief! It turns out the AFU vastly outnumbers Russian forces after all.

But what he says next is truly mystifying. You see, despite having less troops, Russia is able to somehow concentrate those troops in greater numbers at certain key frontlines, giving the mere appearance of an advantage. So that finally explains things!

Of course, the natural follow-up is never answered: How is it possible the country with the larger active and deployed force is not able to concentrate that force in greater quantity than the comparatively less numerous opponent? Logic, it would seem, is in shortfall.

Another recent explanation, however, has piqued my interest—according to Rezident channel Ukraine has 100,000 TCC mobilization officers, with an additional 300,000 "security services" spread throughout the country, guarding borders and doing other rear work. One can see a disparity issue here: Russia does not need such numbers of rear workers because Russia does not rely on forced mobilization but on volunteers which show up daily to recruitment centers. Similarly, Russia is not in dire threat of invasion along a large portion of its borders, unlike Ukraine.

Thus, we can see that a much larger portion of Ukraine's actively counted total troop force is used for rear non-combat roles. So even if the two armies' numbers were roughly equivalent, Ukraine would be at a disadvantage, having to use much more of its frontline-capable troops in these capacities. Meanwhile, Russia already has a separate line of conscripts not allowed in the SMO, but which fulfill all the rear-guard duties without being a drain on active combat troop potential.

If Ukraine has 800k+ total troops, but if ~400k of them are forced to do rear non-combat, non-support work like mobilization and border patrol, then that leaves only 400k+ for active frontline combat. Meanwhile, Russia may have the 600-700k Zelensky claims, yet most of them are available for either combat roles, or at least non-combat support roles—i.e. those which directly support the combat roles, rather than being in a totally unrelated class like TCC mobilizers; these are roles like drivers, technicians, logistics, intelligence analysts, cooks, etc.

In short: due to Ukraine's morale and mobilization problems, Ukraine is forced to expend a disproportionate amount of its manpower on roles that do not directly affect combat efficiency. This is just another way of looking at the force disparities, thanks to Zelensky's insightful nuggets.

—

Marco Rubio sums it up: Ukraine's problem isn't that it's running out of money, it's that it's running out of Ukrainians:

Of course, he goes on to speciously claim that Russia "will have to make concessions" in the negotiations. The whole world besides the rotten US oligarchy knows Russia needs to do no such thing. It's the height of fallacy to literally claim in one sentence that Ukraine is running out of Ukrainians, then in the next that Russia will have to make concessions—that makes no sense at all. No, all Russia has to do is fulfill Rubio's own prophetic quip by continuing the grind until Ukraine is "out of Ukrainians"—voila, game over.

—

In fact, one of the biggest ongoing scandals in Ukraine continues to revolve around the forced mobilization of airforce pilots and technicians to frontline combat and assault squads. It has picked up steam with the whole country now sounding off.

Firstly, controversial Rada MP Maryana Bezugla aired it out:

Then the official AFU General Staff account actually confirmed it:

Another Ukrainian officer corroborates, warning of the deleterious cascading effect this will have on Ukraine's air defenses and everything else:

And another from an aviation officer himself:

Contradicting the general staff's claims that only "some" technicians are being sent to the front, the above aviation officer says almost all of them from his unit are being press-ganged to the front.

I said before, Russia has done this also to an extent—but, it was clarified by at least one person in the know that Russia only sent what were essentially "surplus" or redundant units which were not needed in their air wings—since the Russian airforce is vastly larger than the Ukrainian one, and thus logically has far more 'idle' and 'extraneous' units. How true this explanation is, we can't say for absolute certain. But we can say there's no such level of national outcry and panic over the dire issue as seen in Ukraine above.

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4. Ceasefire Deal Reportedly Reached in Gaza, as Both Biden and Trump Take Credit

The big news of the day: Israel has officially announced a ceasefire and potential end to the Gaza war. Hamas will be releasing 33 hostages—interesting numerology, as always—and Israel will reportedly withdraw its military forces from Gaza.

It will be done in three phases, with the first beginning on January 19th, just a day before Trump's inauguration as if in tribute:

The announcement was met with rousing cheers throughout northern Gaza where Hamas fighters reportedly came out of their tunnels to openly celebrate in the streets—make no mistake, this is being viewed as a monumental victory by the resistance:

Hamas declared the ceasefire with Israel a victory

According to the agreement, in the second phase of the ceasefire, the Israeli army must leave Gaza.

Hamas must return the surviving hostages, and in exchange they will receive their comrades held in Israeli prisons. This was Hamas' demand; Israel insisted on the release of its citizens without any conditions.

In the third stage of the settlement, the remains of the murdered hostages will be returned to the families in Israel, and large-scale post-war reconstruction will begin in Gaza.

In Israel itself, they are already calling the deal "bad" and claiming that it was imposed by the United States.

Listen to Blinken's admission below:

"Indeed Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost."

Don't be surprised if the real number is much more than it has lost—and if not yet, it will be in the future.

After much more than a year of fighting, the "pound for pound greatest military force on the planet" was unable to defeat Hamas even after being given a blank cheque for total indiscriminate slaughter and genocide of the civilian population with zero repercussions, a leeway not afforded to any other military force in recent history.

The fact is, the IDF performed dismally and the reason the deal even came about was because the last several weeks saw a significant spike in IDF soldiers' deaths:

Recently news came that 4% of all IDF troop deaths have been suicides:

And reports of 20,000 wounded IDF from just the Gaza conflict:

In a humorous nod to American politics, both Biden and Trump separately took credit for the ceasefire deal, though CNN contends that both sides did work together on it. Keep in mind Netanyahu recently suspended plans to attend Trump's inauguration reportedly after the latter's snub—Trump posted a Jeffrey Sachs video calling Netanyahu a "deep, dark son of a bitch".

In fact, Haaretz even made claims that Trump's recent 'aggressiveness'—which likely includes the jab above—led to the ceasefire presumably because Netanyahu read the change in the wind and could see that it would be now or never, as Trump's coming administration is perceived as having a harsher, no-nonsense approach on reaching a deal:

Israeli "patriots" feel betrayed by a Trump who had claimed to want to give Hamas "hell" yet immediately strong-armed Bibi into a deal:

Zimri: "So all his people have been lying – it's a big disappointment."

Magal: "He talks about hell and in the meantime sends his envoy to sign a deal. It's a deal whose impact will be very difficult. That's the truth." He added that the last remaining hope is that Hamas will reject a deal: "A cabinet minister told me we need to pray again that God will harden Pharaoh's heart."

But of course, this is just the latest chapter in the endless cyclical nightmare of Israeli racist colonialism:

We can't have particularly high confidence of it succeeding, particularly given that top Israeli officials like Ben-Gvir have already expressed their hopes that the deal will fail, and will undoubtedly give their most earnest try in undermining it in any way possible.

It also has little bearing on Israel's continued strikes on various other surrounding countries, from Lebanon and Syria to Yemen. Israel even stepped up strikes on Gaza today, killing a reported dozen or so—one supposes they needed to sate their fill of bloodlust as consolation for the coming cessation of hostilities.

In fact, a report just earlier claimed that Israel even unleashed its first direct strike on Jolani's troops:

The Israeli Air Force has carried out its first strike on the forces of the terrorist group HTS, which has seized power in Syria.

The attack targeted a convoy of militants in the province of Quneitra to prevent them from getting closer to IDF forces on the ground.

This was right around the time that Erdogan issued a loud rebuke toward Netanyahu, calling on him to stop striking Syria as tensions continue rising between Turkey and its Syrian proxies and Israel.

Erdogan:

"The aggressive actions of the forces attacking Syrian territory, Israel, in particular, must come to an end as soon as possible. Otherwise, it will cause unfavorable outcomes for everyone."

We're left to speculate whether this rising new threat is chief amongst reasons for Netanyahu finally acquiescing to a ceasefire he rejected many times before. With the IDF's continued dismal performance—in particular its major failure in incurring into Lebanese territory—Netanyahu may have chosen to reduce the burden of the multi-fronted war in order to free up resources to concentrate on the potential new threat from the Turkish-Syria axis.

—

The fetid stink of it all will follow Biden administration ghouls around for many years to come:

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5. Mobilization Mania Overtakes Ukraine

The topic of the week is Ukrainian mobilization: it's virtually all that's talked about, both within Ukrainian society and without.

Here's a quick overview of just the signaling from the core of the Trump administration:

‼️🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump calls on Zelensky to lower the draft age in Ukraine to 18 , — FT

▪️The US President-elect intends to push Ukraine to lower the draft age in order to stabilize the front line in the country before direct negotiations with Russia.

▪️ "We will ask Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 in order to attract hundreds of thousands of new troops," Trump's future national security adviser Waltz also said today.

➖ "Now they are conscripting from 26 years old (actually from 25), not from 18. It seems to me that many do not understand that they can attract hundreds of thousands of new military personnel."

▪️In his opinion, lowering the mobilization age is necessary to stabilize the front line so that some kind of agreement can be reached.

RVvoenkor

FT reports on an interview with Trump's chosen National Security Advisor Mike Waltz who says Trump's admin will push Ukraine to lower its mobilization age to 18:

Some have argued Waltz is not speaking for Trump, but on his own behalf. But it sounds like he's carrying the internal message forward, though we'll have to wait and see.

Some have read these statements as Trump subtly and deviously setting Zelensky up, forcing pressure on him in order to retain leverage and control over him for when the time comes—I'm not so convinced just yet. The ultimate question on everyone's mind remains whether Trump will regress into the expected war hawk model of endlessly arming Ukraine, but there's strong chance that Trump is merely trying to retain leverage on both sides, without totally giving in or rebuking either. By having Zelensky mobilize, Trump can put the expired Ukrainian president into an even more precarious position while at the same time putting perceived pressure on Putin to negotiate under the implication that US will continue to strengthen Kiev's hand.

One commentator notes:

Trump's team is reviewing its approach to ending the conflict in Ukraine, European officials who are discussing the issue with the future US administration told the Financial Times.

One official noted that Trump's team is "obsessed with strength and the desire to look strong," which is why "they are rethinking their approach to Ukraine," he said.

Jake Sullivan again came out with a new call to lower Ukrainian mobilization age to 18, implying it's historically ridiculous that Ukraine refuses to mobilize the prime fighting age:

These words were echoed almost verbatim by former UK Defense Secretary Wallace, who said "in 1941, we mobilized women [too]" in urging Zelensky into a total people's mobilization:

A couple 'insider reports' give insight into the true depths of Ukraine's mobilization problems.

From Rezident UA:

Inside: The failure of mobilization in Ukraine — the hidden scale of the problem

A number of our sources are confident that the situation with mobilization in Ukraine is much worse than reported in official reports and the media. Hidden data and international estimates indicate a deep crisis in the draft system, but they indicate only visible cases.
In various regions of Ukraine, aggression against military personnel is growing, and a steady trend towards hatred of any military man has formed in society. The opinion is formed in the offices of the authorities that the methods of mobilization in Ukraine are becoming more and more controversial, causing discontent among not only in society, but also among the military. The mobilization plan in 2024 was implemented by 25%, which did not allow to close the losses of the aircraft by even half. A separate problem is the increase in the number of desertion and a decrease in morale among Ukrainian military personnel, due to the low liquidity mobilized.

Russian source:

Mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the population group from 18 to 25 years seems doomed to failure. There are about 500 thousand of them on the territory of the country, and at best 30-40 thousand people will be caught in a year. Of the 500 thousand, we still need to take into account who volunteered over the past 2 years.

But one of the recent issues with Ukrainian troop shortages in particular as explained by actual complaining AFU troops themselves was that Zelensky primarily continued to privilege using all newly mobilized men for the new 'reserve brigades' he was building for the purpose of creating big PR spectacles like the Kursk incursion or other such psyops. So while the actual real frontline brigades fighting for important strategic towns like Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Chasov Yar, Toretsk, etc., were getting a tiny trickle of new men, a bulk of fresh meat went to the new "11th Corps" with the 150+ series brigades.

Here's one recent breakdown from a Russian source:

Body structure of the AFU. Kiev began to build it before the summer counteroffensive in 2023. Then there were two groups- the 9th and 10th Corps. Each included 5 brigades, later beaten or destroyed in the Zaporozhye region. There was also a reserve corps with the 5th brigade, which was divided into different sections and this practice was banned after that.

The 9th Corps now consists of three brigades: the 33rd and 47th Separate Mechanized Infantry Brigades, as well as 3 separate mechanized infantry brigades. This is the so-called elite.

10th corps: 116th and 118th Separate Infantry Brigades, recently converted to 117th Separate Infantry Brigade. The 11th corps is the most numerous right now, with as many as 10 brigades. This is due to its reserve status, all withdrawn brigades were transferred to it and replenished, thus accumulating there.

The 12th Corps is a dark horse, and it is likely that some brigades from the 11th
and 30th Marine Corps will be transferred to it in the near future. Its changes: 50 brigade recently became 40 separate coastal defense, moved to it. Similarly, the 39th Coastal Defense Brigade was created and assigned, out of 124 Territorial Defense brigades.

The 7th corps of the DSHV, which includes all airborne airmobile brigades. They are all smeared on the front, they have a huge turnover.

However, there have been claims that after months of outrage from high-ranking military officials, Zelensky has finally caved and allowed the more liberal replenishment of active combat brigades, at least according to "scoop"-chasing Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov:

It's not really a "win" as Tatarigami implies above—the situation was really a lose-lose zugzwang for Zelensky because staffing the regular brigades just barely forestalls the inevitable without allowing the possibility of any dark horse or 'wild card' attacks that could upset the balance and change the calculus. Zelensky's 'hedging' of the war with these reserve brigades was a practical and smart choice as it gave him the potential to upset Russia's applecart in some novel way. Without that, things merely return to the same inevitable attritional grind which is disastrous in calculated outlook for Ukraine.

Just throwing bodies—and increasingly less competent and motivated ones at that—at the line will not make much difference. Russian troops are increasingly seasoned, hardened, and veteran while Ukrainian ones are being replaced with ever-greener volkssturm.

Some now contend that Trump seeks to carve up the Western hemisphere—Greenland, Panama, Canada, et al—in a new Maga-Monroe Doctrine, then host a seminal Malta Conference-style sit down with Russia where spheres of influence will be hashed out, and that new 'European security architecture' sought-after by Putin would be codified.

Republicans in the US Congress have prepared a bill to purchase Greenland after Donald Trump takes office as president, Reuters writes.

The document was named the Make Greenland Great Again Act, and so far 10 congressmen are listed as its co-authors. If the bill is adopted, Trump will have the opportunity to begin negotiations with Denmark on the purchase of Greenland.

The problem still remains though that Trump simply cannot give up Ukraine entirely, while Putin cannot allow even a remotely threatening nationalist Ukrainian entity to exist and threaten Russia—whether it be NATO-aligned or not.

As such, it's the 'showdown of the century' between immovable object and unstoppable force as neither Trump nor Putin can afford to lose face or be perceived as bending the knee. Each side represents the leadership position in the two emerging global poles—that's right, China may be the economic driver of the Global South but Russia is the true spiritual leader in many ways. French philosopher Luc Ferry agrees:

As such, the winner of this multipolar face off stands to author the globe's spiritual and ideological direction for the coming century; neither side can budge.

—

A last few topical videos:

NATO head Mark Rutte grumbles Russia continues to produce more in three months than all of NATO in a year:

—

Kharkov deputy says the Ukrainian army is simply running out and a true heart to heart needs to happen between Zelensky and the people:

"The army is running out. It's time for an adult conversation between the authorities and the population, otherwise the consequences will be critical," - Kharkiv deputy.

The President needs to conduct a detailed analysis and tell people that victory is impossible without help, - Kharkiv deputy Artem Revchuk. RVvoenkor

—

And lastly, on the topic of losses, confirming why it is precisely that Ukraine is suffering such troop shortages and why mobilization remains the final hot-button topic, this Ukrainian soldier confirms that back in Rabotino, his entire battalion of nearly 600 men was wiped out in a mere five days:

Out of 600 AFU soldiers in Rabotino, 36 survived, testifies a Ukrainian soldier who was lucky to stay alive.

"We were taken to Rabotino with 600 men, and we were left with 36. They killed most of the battalion in 5 days. This is me telling you about my personal experience. I saw how 600 men were brought in. I was among them. There were 36 of us left"

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6. The Fool's War: Useful Idiots at the Wheel of the Paddy Wagon

An illustrative set of occurrences give us insight into Western Atlanticist thinking when it comes to Ukraine.

First, Lloyd Austin called the Ukraine conflict "one of the greatest military success stories of our time", a remarkable—nay, astounding—proclamation; here it is augmented with the proper accompanying visuals:

This first statement gives one pause, and is cause for great wonder: Are US officials merely putting on, instructed by upper 'guidance' to characterize the war in such laudatory terms? Or—and this is the more frightening possibility—do they actually believe their flights of hyperbole?

Austin's statement is of course just part and parcel to a litany of similar decrees from top establishment figures, the John Kirbys and Blinkens, not to mention Biden himself. We've said long ago that as Ukraine nears defeat, and as the US scrapes the barrel for face-saving options, it will have no choice but to redraw the war as a 'victory' against a barbarous Putin intent on 'subjugating all of Europe'. But the conviction with which Austin presents his latest banality leaves us to assume he may be smelling his own flatulence vis-a-vis the great 'Ukrainian struggle'.

But what truly revealed the extent to which Ukraine was central to this administration's foreign policy raison d'etre is the next eye-opener: General Milley's portrait was unveiled in its final place of consecration—or the wall of shame, as it were—in the Pentagram's Joint Chief's hallway:

I draw your attention to the one curiously symbolic detail of the piece:

A folded up military map of Ukraine, with what appears to be the Dnipro River at the Zaporozhye juncture:

Experts are unanimous: astoundingly, it appears to be a nod toward Ukraine's grand Zaporozhye summer offensive of 2023:

You'll note that such official portraits are meticulously crafted with exceptional and fastidious attention to detail and symbolism, which is generally interwoven at the subject's request to subtly highlight their life's great achievements, passions, as well as the general arc of their service.

In this case, allow us to examine the 'totem pole' of Milley's personal truths, his life's sacred virtues and oaths of service, judiciously aligned with the manfully knuckled fist of his 'sovereign side' hand:

Read more

7. Medley report: Israel's rising threat, Ukraine revelations, and the 'Age of Anti-Westphalian DarkMaga'

A medley update a few interesting items today:

Israel

It appears even the Israelis have caught on to what we've been reporting here since the start of the "moderate rebel" takeover of Syria. Now it's dawning on the world what truly comes next in this new great game—the Jerusalem Post article virtually quotes my previous analysis word for word:

The committee, established by the government, warns that Turkey's ambitions to restore its Ottoman-era influence could lead to heightened tensions with Israel, possibly escalating into conflict.

Recall I said that Israel thought it had 'defeated' Iran but instead inherited a far more dangerous foe, now they are starting to see it:

"The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat," the report states, warning that Turkish-backed forces might act as proxies, fueling regional instability.

Netanyahu likewise validated the mentioned Nagel report's findings:

Netanyahu addressed the report, stating, "We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected. This report provides us with a roadmap to secure Israel's future."

Most interesting was an adjacent 'news' yesterday stating Iran had a secret new deal with Turkey to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah. Keep in mind this is completely uncorroborated and unsourced, and should therefore be taken with a huge grain of salt. But if there's even a remote glint of truth to this, then Israel's in deeper schmutz than it had imagined, and would also mean that Iran and Hezbollah have not been weakened at all:

Iran has found a new route to smuggle weapons for Hezbollah. Iranian planes are delivering weapons to Hezbollah via Turkey, Israel must decide whether to strike Iran or the Houthis first.

Recently, planes belonging to the Iranian airline Mahan Air were spotted in the skies of Turkey, indicating cooperation between the Turkish government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, the Middle East Forum writes. "From December 13, 2024 to the end of the year, Mahan Air operated 11 flights between Tehran and Beirut using a fleet of Airbus A340 and Airbus A300B4-622R aircraft. Flight tracking recorded a change in previous routes from Iran to Lebanon," the report says.

That's not to even mention the fact that there are claims both Hezbollah and Hamas have restored their strength:

Hamas report:

Is Hamas and their allied armed factions making a comeback in the Gaza strip? An analysis:

According to the Jerusalem Post, Hamas is indeed making a substantial comeback in Gaza by recruiting new forces. Israeli channel 12 states that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) combined have between 20,000 and 23,000 fighters left.

The Jerusalem post reported that the number was closer to around 12,000. The IDF last reported that it had killed between 17,000 and 20,000 Hamas and PIJ fighters during the war and wounded another 14,000-16,000. The fact that the IDF publicly stated in October 2023 that Hama's full forces were 25,000 means that the numbers simply don't add up, as if the IDF did indeed kill 20,000, that would leave just 5,000 still active, and that's not even including the 14,000-16,000 supposedly wounded. -Source

Still think Israel "won" a major victory with Assad's ouster?

Ukraine

Another new WaPo article gives a shocking statistic:

Here's the blurb gaining traction:

Ukraine is also losing troops at a rate far beyond what it can sustain and continue fighting. The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount. Thousands of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers are deserting the front lines. Only last year, Ukraine began drafting men 25 and older; the previous age was 27. Some, including U.S. lawmakers, have been pressing Ukraine to start drafting men as young as 18, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has so far resisted, concerned about decimating the next generation and hampered by a lack of equipment to arm new troops.

So firstly they confirm Ukraine is not only experiencing a net loss of troops, but one characterized as going "far beyond" what it can sustain. We can assume this means a major net loss per month. Recall WaPo's last article confirmed 200k total mobilized troops for 2024—this therefore serves as confirmation that Ukraine has lost in excess of 200k troops in 2024.

But the next admission is the big one, and demonstrates how the West is finally coming around to admitting Ukraine's catastrophic casualty figures:

The official casualty estimate of 400,000 killed or wounded is considered a vast undercount.

So not only is 400k casualties an undercount, it's a vast undercount. How vast are we talking? 600k? 800k? 1 million? It seems the official Western narratives lately comes closer and closer to aligning with the Russian MOD figures.

But here's the real kicker. At the same time, notorious Verkhovna Rada MP Oleksiy Goncharenko made this quite thought-provoking observation—read that very carefully:

Recall just a day ago in the new Lex Fridman interview Zelensky stated the AFU has 980,000 people. Yet Syrsky recently stated Russia has 700,000 men in Ukraine. At the same time, frontline Ukrainian officers constantly grouse Ukraine is outnumbered nearly "5 to 1" in many key areas.

What is going on here?

Goncharenko finally unbosoms this monumental fraud by suggesting these phantom troops are all dead.

—

Trump has now reportedly said he "hopes" to end the Ukraine war in six months. No longer "I will stop the war in 24 hours" but now "I hope to stop it in six months"—quite the downgrade, to say the least, and a big reality check to boot.

In fact, Trump himself appears to now be slowly acclimatizing to the reality that Russia is in the driver's seat and has no reason to parley with him any time soon.

The situation has gotten so bleak that the dark lord himself, Robert Kagan, has penned a breathless new cry of alarm in the Atlantic:

The piece starts off as dire as can be, predicting the fall of Ukraine within twelve months:

Vice-president Elect J. D. Vance once said that he doesn't care what happens to Ukraine. We will soon find out whether the American people share his indifference, because if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

Recall, months ago when the globalist shills gabbed about Ukraine "losing", they did so in a kind of winking way, still clutching the illusion Ukraine could keep most of its territorial integrity and sovereignty. But now the situation has turned truly catastrophic, read Kagan's last line again:

It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

That's it—it's game over and the elites know it. Ukraine stands to catastrophically collapse with Russia not merely overrunning "the Donbass", but the entire BlackRock-owned mineral-rich 'El-Dorado'.

The most fascinating dissonance here demonstrates how these globalists try to have their cake and eat it too—and lord knows Kagan loves his just desserts…

You see, they've tried for a long time to sell us on Russia being keen for a ceasefire, yet simultaneously now admit that Ukraine faces total capitulation—how is that possible? A "battered" Russia in desperate need of a "time out" does not sync with a Russia with its foot on Ukraine's throat, one finishing blow away from swallowing the country whole.

But alas, today's theme is: they're finally all coming around. It's a time of revelations, and a time of throwing caution and duplicity to the wind, because there's simply no time left—Ukraine's globalist curators know it's the final stretch.

Trump appears to sense the intractability of it all, and that America is likely powerless to stop the coming Russian coup de grace. As such, in a preemptive move to fortify his presidential legacy, Trump appears to be building up a reserve of legacy-defining bold acquisitions, the likes of which will overshadow even the "catastrophic" American humiliation in Ukraine.

—

On that note, here's German journalist Patrik Baab with a poignant capstone on the situation, as he gives an honest 'Western' assessment of Ukraine's remaining chances in this war—but note in particular what he says about NATO and the West as a whole:

German journalist Patrik Baab, one of the few Western media representatives who visited new regions of Russia, shared his thoughts on the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine.

The fact is, the global order is in terminal upheaval, and the Ukraine war stands to be the final catalyst to upend the entire system once and for all. In conjunction with Trump's total revocation of European sovereignty, not to say significance, the war's conclusion is on course to rewrite Europe and America's relationship for all time—for good or ill.

It's a grand new birthing period, as I alluded to in the most recent piece. But there are two other commentators who've bottled the defining ethos of this moment in their own noteworthy ways that I'd like to share as a concluding sentiment. Watch the Trump video posted above, then read these below:

And the final longer one is worth the read, coming by way of the ever-incisive RWA (Russians With Attitude):

On American expansionism.

The incoming administration seems to have a more realistic image of the state of American hegemonial decline and wants to take proactive steps to try to counteract and reverse it, breathing new life into the American Global Empire.

In this context, it makes perfect sense for the US to increase pressure on its vassals. I am not using the term in a pejorative sense. The US does not have "allies" in the traditional meaning of the word. It has vassals with different levels of feudal obligations and elite integration, and different tasks. Extracting more value from vassals -- whether through tariffs, increased NATO budgets, meddling in local politics or potential territorial concessions -- is an absolutely logical step in cementing and renewing America's position as overlord of its sphere.

There are three ways America's European vassals can react to this: look for protection outside of the sphere, try to make themselves more useful/necessary & advance integration, or take it on the face. Were we in, I don't know, the 19th century, Denmark would just ask Russia for military support in Greenland in exchange for mild economic concessions and never worry again. As it is, the Royal Danish Army does not have any artillery anymore because they gave it all away for the purpose of firing cluster ammunition at Russian children in Donetsk. They did not receive anything in return for that and it did not help any Danish purpose. They cannot defend themselves if push comes to shove and they can't ask anybody to help because most of their fellow vassals have done the same. The most likely option is that they'll just take it on the face. Not just for pragmatic reasons, but also because they genuinely enjoy being dommed geopolitically.

America has no obligation to treat its vassals better. I've seen Danish people complain on here about supporting the US after 9/11, participating in the American wars in the Middle East, etc. That's ridiculous. You know how a colony is rewarded for sending troops to its overlord's wars? It doesn't get beaten. That's the reward for a lackey. Any person who takes any of the NATO democracy liberalism pilpul seriously is just not a serious person, it was never real, it was always just voluntary submission to be absolved from existing in History.

The world that existed in 1991-2022 does not exist anymore. It's not coming back. You can just invade your neighbor. You can just fire missiles at international shipping lanes. You can just threaten to annex members of your military alliance. "You can just do things", as the techbros like to say. The mirage of a post-historical order that only has to be policed from time to time but is never seriously challenged has disappeared. What did you think canceling the End of History meant? Vibes? Papers? Essays? It's not pleasant to be suddenly confronted with all of the above. It's not pleasant to have to admit to yourself that your existence was a coddled theme park that is existentially dependent on the relative position of someone else and how he feels about that relative position. America's vassals WILL have to confront this state of things and make hard decisions about their future. This means reckoning with their geopolitical impotence and either embracing dependency with open eyes or seeking pathways to autonomy that will inevitably involve risk, sacrifice, and a recalibration of their national priorities.

The era of coasting on borrowed security and ideological rhetoric is over. What lies ahead is a world where historical agency must be reclaimed or forever relinquished, and for many, the question may not be whether they are ready to make that leap, but whether they even remember how. America has now understood this -- and is mentally preparing to switch back to the cold logic that comes with actual History. The times, they are a-changin'.

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8. Another One Down: Anti-Globalist Maelstrom Sweeps Away Trudeau as Larger Storm Looms

Today Trudeau announced his resignation, effective upon the choosing of a new leader:

From CNN:

"I intend to resign as party leader, as prime minister, after the party selects its new leader," the 53-year-old leader told reporters at a news conference in Ottawa on Monday.

Canada's parliament will be suspended until March 24 while a new Liberal Party leader is chosen, he also said.

It is another of the big dominoes to fall as the long-awaited collapse of the Western order predictably accelerates. Betting tables have it for Pierre Poilievre next:

Recall, Poilievre is the whip-smart 'populist' who once casually unpantsed a shill reporter in a virally amusing interview:

This Atlantic Council apparatchik prophetically summarized the mood best last month:

There are many more impending as the seams come undone:

It simply cannot be swept under the rug or sugar-coated any longer: the Western order is in literal crisis. The people have had enough, and the avalanche is picking up inertia because the process is a self-reinforcing feedback loop: the more wanton elites fall, the more that citizens are energized to rise up against them. And when that happens, the elites are forced to clamp and double down on their lies, hypocrisy, and repressions in a futile attempt to stem the flow; this leads to even more ill-will, resentment, and revolt against their destructive policies.

Alex Krainer picks up on this today with the news that Croatia too is fortifying itself in the resistance sphere, with globalist candidate Dragan Primorac losing to the incumbent he accused of being 'immoderate' and 'politically incorrect'—code words for not toeing the establishment line:

On Sunday, 29 December 2024, Croatia held presidential elections. The incumbent President Zoran Milanović won the first round in a landslide against the pro-globalist challenger Dragan Primorac. Primorac was strongly backed by the ruling party, the Croatian Democratic Union, led by the Prime Minister Andrej Plenković who has been a loyal supporter of NATO, US, UK and EU policies. In winning the Presidency, the ruling party would have captured all of Croatia's key institutions of government.

Alex Krainer's Substack The political tides in Europe are turning against the Empire On Sunday, 29 December 2024, Croatia held presidential elections. The incumbent President Zoran Milanović won the first round in a landslide against the pro-globalist challenger Dragan Primorac. Primorac was strongly backed by the ruling party, the Croatian Democratic Union, led by the Prime Minister… Read more 17 days ago · 282 likes · 97 comments · Alex Krainer

It's interesting that as proof of 'gathering countercurrents' Krainer brings up Milan's recent staging of the Russian Nutcracker ballet, three years after Europe imposed a cynical de facto ban on Russian culture, even inviting Russian conductor Valery Ovsyanikov to direct the orchestra and televising the whole spectacle on national Italian TV broadcast.

The reason that caught my eye was because just last week, Russian culture made a sudden resurgence in Western publications like The Guardian below, which puzzled over an old Dostoevsky story called White Nights going majorly viral amongst Western teens on TikTok for its depiction of voguish lovelorn angst, solitude, and other homey themes for modern Gen-Zers:

Especially now that Trump has won, and the culture war against 'Wokeness' has taken a 180 turn, we see more and more reversals of this sort on a daily basis. The mask is falling, the pressure is slowly letting off.

Krainer concludes:

It may be that in spite of the loud banging of the war-drums in mainstream media, and among our political class, very different currents are gathering below the surface. These currents might continue to gain strength; it's what our ruling establishments like to label as Russia's malign influence. More likely, the truth is that ordinary people got tired of the lies, hatred, hostility and the wars, as well as the intellectual and cultural junk food that's become the pervasive staple among Western nations. This is a hopeful sign, because escalating the wars could prove difficult for the imperial establishment. What if peace starts to break out all over the place in 2025? It's a worthwhile idea to pray for and struggle for.

For all his faults, we must admit what Elon Musk has been doing on social media of late is a brilliant and revolutionary sally against globalist forces in this vein. For those in the dark, Musk has been on an absolute tear on his X platform against all the establishment figureheads of Europe—namely Starmer in the UK and Scholz in Germany.

Musk has called them to task in a way that's actually moving the needle politically, not only because of the nature of the X platform's monumental reach, but for an even more important reason. It is something I've highlighted repeatedly here: the globalist apparatus of control is designed to appear like an impenetrable iron curtain, but is in reality a gossamer thing, fragile to the touch, existing entirely through sheer dint and din of fear used as an oppressive prod to keep us from raising our voices. But what Musk has done is simply shown that if you call them out loudly, they begin to wither and wilt, not to say panic—which is what they're currently doing:

According to Bloomberg, senior officials in all of the U.K.'s major parties, which includes the Reform, Conservative, and Labour Parties, have privately urged U.S. President-elect Donald J. Trump to distance himself from Tesla CEO and billionaire Elon Musk, following several statements made by Musk recently towards European leaders that could be considered "inflammatory." This includes stating that U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer should be imprisoned, calling for the release of right-wing activist Tommy Robinson, and even suggesting that the United States should "liberate" the People of Britain from their tyrannical government, with these statements angering many British politicians, who state this is not how a close ally speaks about another close ally.

It's a difficult concept to grasp at first: that the elites' entire paradigm of control over us is in actuality a fragile mental prison, and that we're cowed into submission merely through their regime of fear-propaganda. But once the first loud voice bellows his defiance to the warders, the rest of the slaves quickly take notice that there's not as much to fear as they thought, that those in charge are more vulnerable than they put on. It breaks a kind of unseen barrier, a mental bondage which irreversibly opens up the flood gates against the establishment. In short: he's making it "okay" to speak up and resist, and that's a powerful memetic catalyst.

Now Musk has scheduled a pivotal interview with the AfD's Alice Weidel that's already being hailed as driving major influence toward the ascendant party:

He's even written an OpEd for Die Welt, which sparked a firestorm within the publication itself.

It's all generating intense discussion throughout Europe, which is opening sutures the elites desperately wanted to keep buttoned up. You can feel the global changes on the wind, the unexpected fresh energy that Trump has brought has stirred things up, thrown the establishment into disarray.

For instance, Trump's seeming tongue-in-cheek forays against Greenland have generated shocking reverberations. Not only has Greenland suddenly announced intents toward independence from Denmark—implying the potential for Trump's batty annexation plan actually working—but now the Danish king has sent down a riposte:

Weeks after Trump ribbed Canada about becoming the 51st state, Trudeau is packing his bags, and Trump immediately signaled an unexpected doubling down on his earlier proposal:

As bonkers as this all may seem, it merely proves the point that global currents are truly in flux, the brash debutantes are taking advantage of this historical rift where the power balances have been thrown off, global institutions of order are in retrograde, and now it feels like anything and everything is up for grabs; wilted power structures lie paralyzed from their rebuffs, and incapable of keeping order. It's a time of great sweeping change, a crossroads of world history where upheaval usually finds its most fertile ground.

Those who follow the Fourth Turning theory know it explains events well, which I've previously enlarged on here. The short of it is that a predicted 20-25 year-long 'crisis period'—or fourth turning—is set to take us to roughly 2030, which should culminate in some kind of grand climax, perhaps a war or system reset.

For now we watch and wait for the next pieces to fall. On the docket appears to be Austria, with the empire in tatters over the FPO's 'right wing, pro-Putin' figure Herbert Kickl's ascendance:

Far-right leader Herbert Kickl could be Austria's next chancellor, as coalition talks between the conservatives and centre-left collapsed last weekend. Kickl's FPÖ won the latest elections, and is one of Europe's up-and-coming far-right parties

Two "right-wing" resistance sphere, Putin apologists with Orban in Hungary and Kickl in Austria, you say? It's no wonder they're terrified, as articles like this one from last year attest:

Oh yes, be afraid…be very afraid.

The times, they are a'changin'…

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9. SITREP 1/5/25: Ukraine Launches Final Bargaining-Chip Offensive in Kursk

Ukrainian forces launched a new awaited offensive on the Kursk region, which was to be timed with the run up to Trump's inauguration. The desperate offensive is meant to make sure the dwindling Kursk salient remains at least up until Trump is able to 'negotiate' with Putin, so that Zelensky still has Kursk as a "bargaining chip" in those negotiations.

As such, Russian forces have been anticipating a move somewhere in the region for a few weeks now. The only danger is that there is some possibility this opening is still just a diversion for a larger move in another direction, such as Bryansk, toward Belgorod, or even on the Zaporozhye line.

That's because today's action saw what's estimated to be two battalions or so. There are mixed reports about potentially the 95th, 92nd, 22nd, and 82nd brigades participating, as well as the 225th Special Battalion. Other reports claimed 36th and 47th as well, although it's likely just small elements and detachments of the above, if at all.

Footage of the columns advancing with Russian response fire and drone destruction of the Ukrainian armor:

The assault column came out of Sudzha toward Berdin in an attempt to expand the bridgehead and keep Russians from collapsing the pocket on the AFU's Sudzha HQ-stronghold:

Here's a video from Akhmat's "Aida" Battalion operating in Kursk during today's assault:

Note that at a certain point the commander says we have four losses and they have four losses—this is an AI mistranslation, he actually said our unit destroyed four AFU units and another neighboring Russian unit destroyed an additional four.

Having anticipated this attack, Russian forces apparently also prepared an attack thrust of their own in other areas of Kursk in order to cut the Ukrainians off or simply catch them off guard. Thus there were reports of a Russian assault from the Malaya Loknaya, Sverlikovo, and Leonidovka directions, though there's no further information at this time.

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Russian army in Kursk region advances on Malaya Loknya, Sverdlikovo and Leonidovka, - DeepState

The Ukrainian assault did manage to embed troops in and around parts of Berdin, so they did capture a small slice of new territory with the incursion—but for now Russian forces claim they have stranded the AFU troops by destroying their armor and are in the process of eliminating the remaining stragglers.

A day prior to this, Russian forces had several successes including capturing the remainder of Kurakhovo. The flag was geolocated being placed here:

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Elite special forces of the Southern Military District, in particular fighters of the 346th special forces brigade "Grachi", together with units of the 5th separate guards motorized rifle brigade, installed the Russian flag on the extreme western outskirts of the village of Kurakhovo. This operation was another success in the ongoing offensive of Russian troops in this section of Ukrainian territory. Highly professional special forces played a decisive role in capturing an important strategic facility.

Which is here:

In fact the wider view shows Kurakhove region has been all but cinched up:

Toretsk has also now been almost entirely captured, with just a small segment to the north left:

And there were advances in Chasov Yar as well, with much of the city likewise behind Russian forces:

They've also expanded territory around Pokrovsk's southern and western flanks, with Ukrainian forces said to have constructed fortifications around the city as follows:

New articles continue coming to terms with Ukraine's impending defeat, as the West slowly realizes that Trump will not be able to 'magically' end the war without giving Russia all of its demands, which is a complete non-starter for Zelensky:

A new Washington Post article gives an interesting figure:

It states that Zelensky wanted 500k total troops drafted in 500k but ended up only drafting 200k. The reason that's interesting is because we now know from several Ukrainian officials that Ukraine is at best breaking even and at worst experiencing a net loss in troop totals per month. Given that 200k were brought in as replacements in 2024, we can only assume this represents the AFU's losses for the year.

Two weeks ago Belousov announced Ukraine's total "killed and wounded" casualties for the year 2024 as 560,000. That would put strictly killed at something like 120-180k, which is not far from the 200k conscription figure above. Being charitable, let's say that 200k is killed and disabled, which would put strictly killed at 100k. That would be 8,333 KIA per month or 277 per day, which is pretty much in the vicinity of where I've got AFU's KIA pegged. I've said several articles ago I believe Russian KIA to be anywhere between 100-150 per day, sometimes higher, with Ukrainian being 250-400, give or take. MediaZona seems to roughly agree as their estimated death count for Russian forces was 5,500 for December last I checked, which averages to about 183 per day.

Recall that there are alternative estimates for Ukraine's losses which are far higher, like this recently published one:

It claims a total of ~2 million casualties since the start of the war, with 920k of them being dead or disabled.

In fact, from the same WaPo article quoted above, we have the next paragraph:

Well, judge for yourself.

Taras goes on to remark that the current situation is even worse than February 2022 for Ukraine:

"Let's be honest, the situation now is worse than at the start of the full-scale invasion," said 33-year-old Taras, a captain and company commander in the 35th brigade. "What can we negotiate now? We can only nod our heads and agree to their demands, and what they will demand is obviously going to be something that we don't like."

They do make an interesting description of Russia's 'slow-drip' strategy:

Moving in smaller groups on foot, the most-used tactic, also allows the Russians to covertly build up forces one or two people at a time before their next attack. Armored vehicles are rarely used in offensives anymore, soldiers said.

"You think everything is all right because you haven't seen a lot of the enemy and then suddenly 10 people run out of one basement," said Taras, the deputy commander fighting near Pokrovsk. "That happened to us recently. Where did they come from?"

Of course, they still mention the canard of "heavy Russian losses" in the article, but have you ever wondered why in every Ukrainian interview, the AFU soldiers mention their own high losses, yet in equivalent Russian interviews Russian soldiers virtually never mention much losses at all, or at least not particularly high ones? Does one actually suppose that Ukrainian governmental strictures are somehow "freer" and Ukraine has more "freedom" in this regard than Putin's Russia? It's a very telling point of fact.

How's this final admission from the same article?

Either way, even Russian SVR now states that Ukraine is preparing to lower mobilization age, which means it may very well finally happen soon. The likely impetus remains a failure of Trump's peace talks—which Zelensky is holding out for—which will allow Yermak and his puppet to blame the mobilization on the US' "betrayal" to take heat off themselves.

—

An impressive new video comes by way of the Russian 5th Brigade, of the DPR's ex-1st Army Corps, of the 51st CAA of the Southern Military District.

A four-unit assault formation from the 5th Brigade consisting of one heavy tank with three IFVs rolled into Elizavetovka from the now-captured Vozdvizhenka—just east of Pokrovsk:

Upon entering the village they suddenly ran face-first into two Ukrainian tanks, one of which I have seen identified as a T-64. I will assume both were T-64s. A high-noon standoff ensues with both sides' tanks firing on each other, and the Russian one destroying his Ukrainian foe while the remaining Ukrainian tank flees. The fleeing tank is then hit by Russian drones soon after.

The remarkable video:

‼️🇷🇺🎖 Heroic breakthrough near Pokrovsk: Russian tank and 3 IFVs head-on against Ukrainian tanks - battle details

▪️Russian troops are developing an offensive east of Mirnograd. After taking the village of Vozdvizhenka, ours entered Yelizavetovka. A Russian column broke into the village, a battle is underway, enemy resources were written off during the day.

▪️Near Yelizavetovka, our tank and 3 infantry fighting vehicles collided with two Ukrainian Armed Forces tanks at a "dagger" distance of 50 meters.

▪️The tank of the 5th brigade hit the Ukrainian tank point-blank three times, it hit ours twice, but missed.

▪️With the fourth shot, the Russian tank penetrated the armor of the enemy tank and then finished it off.

▪️The second tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces hid behind the smoke of the burning Ukrainian tank and crawled away.

▪️Our infantry fighting vehicles emerged from under the tank's protection, and troops landed from them in Yelizavetovka and secured their positions.

At the 1:00 mark of the video the Russian tank fires and misses, but hits the dirt in front of the Ukrainian tanks, causing a plume of smoke that blocks their views. One wonders if this was 'nerves' or a deliberate quick shot to blind them, perhaps after realizing it would take longer to aim the gun onto the enemy tank than to hit the trigger on a barrel which may have already been pointing toward the ground there.

Either way, it worked and the Ukrainian tanks panic and begin backing up. At 1:09 both fire and seem to miss again due to the smoke. We're already three shots in at point blank range and no one appears to have hit anyone. At 1:23 the Russian tank fires again and seems to again miss and hit behind the first tank, or possibly grazingly hits it. It's hard to tell for certain, and a small wisp of white smoke does appear to attest to a possible hit. Another shot at 1:34 however finally hits the front of the Ukrainian tank's armor—the autoloader on the Russian tank is now working at exactly 10 second intervals, which is much slower than the 6-7second optimal speed most T-72, T-80, and T-90s can do.

But what's remarkable is at 1:36 the Ukrainian tank returns fire and appears to even potentially hit the Russian tank with a grazing shot. If you look closely you see the tell-tale wisp of white smoke indicating a possible hit on the defensive smoke charges on the turret. The shot explodes behind the Russian tank so it could have grazed off—or perhaps is a miss, it's hard to tell.

But the final few shots from the Russian tank finally settles matters and finishes off the Ukrainian one. But one can see real modern war is not like video games, things are imperfect and sometimes many shots are needed to finish off the foe. The Russian tank even appears to be hit by something else at 2:06, either a drone or an RPG fired from near the Ukrainian tank, since there is a muzzle flash of sorts visible. But it seems to shrug the hit off with only another smoke canister destroyed.

—

Lastly, for those who haven't followed the incredible story of Yakut warrior Andrey "Tuta" Gregoriev, I wanted to have a centralized place to put all the links for posterity and those interested.

'Tuta' was part of the Russian 39th Brigade based in Sakhalin assaulting the village of Trudovoye, just south of Kurakhove here:

Note Trudovoye is now captured, but the events actually occurred in late November, when the village was still in the gray zone.

Tuta was ordered by his command to proceed on a motorcycle with another partner to plant a flag in the village. This has generated some controversy, like the following:

Sure, on first impression it may seem like this proves that force density is low and some 'corrupt' Russian commanders are sending troops on superficial suicide missions. But in reality, the village was in a gray zone, and a two-man team on a propaganda/scout mission is not totally uncalled for. Placing flags has more psychological importance in war than people on the sidelines give credit for; it's generally frowned upon when the AFU sends dozens of men to their death for it like in Khrynki.

In this case it may have been a reasonable mission. If you listen to Tuta's full length interview, you'll note he conducted all sorts of rear sabotage and killed something like a dozen total AFU before he was done with his remarkable week-long spree behind enemy lines.

For those interested, the full highly graphic video of the fight is here: Video.
A newly released, even more graphic drone view of the same fight is here: Video.
And the full hour-long interview with the hero is here: Video.

Some Ukrainian channels allege that this was the AFU soldier defeated by the Yakut:

Many have romanticized the fight and the now-famous 'brotherly' exchange between the two warriors at the end, but in truth it was mostly just survival and primal forces at work. The Yakut soldier even admits in the full interview he later liquidated a three-man AFU mortar team, including the commander who tried to surrender; when you're alone behind enemy lines, you don't have the luxury of honor and chivalry—a 'prisoner' would just be a dangerous burden for your journey back to friendly territory.

A last important lesson: many Western propagandists continue parading the spurious notion that Russian forces use the age-old "Soviet-style centralized command". In reality, Gregoriev's exploits prove that Russian units operate with much more flexible initiative than their NATO counterparts. He was given leeway for all kinds of self-starting initiative when behind the lines, including sabotaging an AFU ammo depot, fuel warehouse, mortar unit, as well as reconnoitering various valuable military objects.

In fact the sheer know-how of the common Russian soldier was astounding, given his story. At one point he casually remarks how he Macgyver'd a C4 charge to blow the enemy warehouse on the fly, all because they were taught to do so in training, despite the fact he's not even in any kind of special sapper or engineering battalion.

—

A few last items:

A report about the utter low quality of troops being press-ganged into the AFU:

A company commander of the 78th Airborne Assault Regiment of the AFU reported the low quality of conscripts arriving from the CVMP. According to him, his company received a drug addict on substitution therapy, two non-conscripts, a person with a mental disorder, a person with hepatitis and two with heart disease, one of whom can barely stand on his feet, and the second of whom almost died and ended up in the hospital. At the same time, as the officer noted, military commissariats do not draft successful healthy businessmen and strong young men of athletic physique, who can be found at various rallies

—

An addendum to add for last time when we spoke about Ukraine's tactic for baiting Russian air defenses into shooting down civilian airliners or other military craft—I had found this snippet saved long ago which offers one piece of evidence for the Ukrainian saboteur tactic:

—

A new video showing a Ukrainian Su-25 utilizing the French AASM Hammer missiles against Russian forces:

You can see the "lofting" tactic employed which we covered here many times long ago, where the plane flies low to avoid radar then briefly shoots up to as high an altitude as possible to gain distance on the missile, before dropping back down under radar coverage.

Intrepid viewers geolocated the plane from the footage, which is just over Konstantinovka:

That's fairly ballsy given that it's only 10-15km or so from the frontline. In fact, we know Russian planes operate nearby given the famous S-70 Ohotnik incident, where the experimental drone fell somewhere over Konstantinovka, which means its wingman Su-57 was operating very close to the town.

Thus it shows the lofting strategy works—at least at times—based on luck, since there's only a window of a few seconds to detect the Ukrainian plane and launch a missile if Russian assets are in the area.

—

Lastly, a remarkable video from 2015 where Sergey Dorenko makes a number of prophetic predictions about a most intense European war in the year 2025 and beyond:

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10. Tech Surge of the SMO: AI, Drones, EW, Countermeasures, and More of the Latest Advancements

The following is a premium article of a hefty ~4800 words in size, covering the latest technological developments on the frontline in the area of drones and AI tech in particular. The report is packed chock-full of exclusive videos and hard-to-find details that you won't see anywhere else, which I've collated through tirelessly poring over obscure sources and channels. So if you're interested in the technological aspect of the Ukrainian war in particular, this is another segment you don't want to miss.

We haven't had an update on the state of the war's technological progression in a while and the new year brings the perfect time to do so. One of the reasons for that is because there have been a lot of predictions on the sweeping changes said to take root on the frontline by 2025, and so it's appropriate to discuss how close these projections have been.

One of the notoriously contrarian predictions from many months ago was that 2025 would actually see not the supremacy of drones and FPVs, but rather their negation and decline. A French army chief made this curious claim in June of last year:

From the article:

The advantage now enjoyed by small aerial drones on battlefields including in Ukraine is but "a moment in history," French Army Chief of Staff Gen. Pierre Schill said at the Eurosatory defense show in Paris.

While anti-drone systems are lagging and "leave the sky open to things that are cobbled together but which are extremely fragile," countermeasures are being developed, Schill told reporters during a tour of the French Army stand at the show June 19. Already today, 75% of drones on the battlefield in Ukraine are lost to electronic warfare, the general said.

One must wonder if the French army chief knows what he's talking about; the article further points to upcoming French vehicles which may include anti-drone 'missiles' and '40mm airburst grenades'. But these will prove useless against FPVs which are much too quick, ubiquitous, and undetectable in the frenzy of combat to really be reliably destroyed by such expensive countermeasures.

To prove his point, the French army chief compares FPVs to the Bayraktar drone, saying they will disappear just as unceremoniously from the field:

First-person view drones currently carry out about 80% of the destruction on the front line in Ukraine, when eight months ago those systems weren't present, according to Schill. The general said that situation won't exist 10 years from now, and the question could be asked whether that might already end in one or two years. Schill cited the example of the Bayraktar drone, "the king of the war" at the start of the conflict in Ukraine but no longer being used because it's too easy to scramble.

But the article does make one powerful point: that Western armies are essentially paralyzed from committing too directionally in one weapons program because the possibility is too high that the albatross program can be obsoleted by a new development very quickly:

The pace of military drone development means that Army can't commit to large buying programs, because an acquired capability can become obsolete in five months, according to the general. Schill said today's drones fly better than those two or three years ago, with more computing power onboard that is capable of terrain-based navigation or switching frequencies to escape jamming.

Everyone is now focusing on one magic silver-bullet system to take on drones. But the real answer lies in a total, holistic approach with the understanding that losses from drones will simply become an inescapable reality of modern war. This is how Russia has now chosen to approach the situation, simply mitigating drone advancements as much as possible not with any one particular system aimed directly at combating them, but rather through the total synergistic strategic realignment of the armed forces as a whole. This includes everything from surveillance, EW systems, the tightening of the entire operational decision tree and OODA loop, direct personnel training, anti-drone prophylactic systems for vehicles, but also the actual combat tactics and strategies employed, like Russia's now-famous 'dispersion' approach, better known as the 'death by a thousand cuts'.

In an interview last month, a Ukrainian soldier had remarked how it has become very difficult to hit Russian troops with drones on his front due to the 'slow trickle' method they've begun to utilize in accumulating at a forward position. When there are only tiny groups of two or three men at a time weaving into the position from a variety of random directions, the AFU drone teams become dispersed and paralyzed from lack of concentrated targets.

Ukraine's famed drone king "Magyar" had quite the opposite prediction in September of last year, stating that by March 2025 drone pilots would already be old news:

"Currently, hundreds of artificial intelligence systems are being developed simultaneously, and they are being tested in experimental modes. After six months, the pilots will no longer be required. You will need people who will simply lift the drone a meter above the ground. And then the drone itself, depending on its development, will decide what to attack, how to distinguish a Zhiguli from a tank, and will definitely not confuse the Ukrainian with the enemy, "Magyar said.

This seems a bit premature, after all we're already nearing his six-month limit and the battlefield is not overrun with artificial intelligence systems. But there has been more and more noise in this direction.

For instance, top Ukrainian electronic warfare expert Serhiy Flash found an uptick in Russian forces using AI targeting drones in the Kursk region, even showcasing pictures of the recovered electronic boards:

Russian drone with target acquisition and auto-following from the Kursk bridgehead.

Recently, there have been more and more such drones. Holding a moving target is far from ideal, but it works.

I remind you that a drone with auto-target acquisition completely neutralizes trench electronic warfare.

In the case of mass production, the auto-capture module increases the price of the drone by 100-200 dollars

Meanwhile, Russian forces on the other hand recovered some of the Ukrainians' own parallel efforts, likewise showcasing a special Google AI CPU.

Report:

Ukraine and Google artificial intelligence!

Recently, the wreckage of a Ukrainian quadcopter (FPV) found on the battlefield uses an artificial intelligence (AI) control system. After opening the quadcopter, it was found that the Ukrainian uses the Edge TPU development board developed by Google.

The Edge TPU board is the computing core unit of Google's Coral platform, which can be purchased publicly at a price of about $130, and Coral is a platform that provides complete hardware and software solutions for artificial intelligence. Unlike GPU boards, TPU boards are much more optimized for large-scale parallel computing required by networks.

Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, previously said that because of the war in Ukraine, he is now a licensed arms dealer! which aims to help Ukraine achieve artificial intelligence technology. He also believes that the US military should eliminate useless tanks and replace them with drones equipped with artificial intelligence.

Ukraine hopes to use artificial intelligence-equipped drones on the front lines to help the country overcome Russian jamming systems that have become effective and enable drones to operate in larger groups. Since both sides of the Ukrainian war are using electronic warfare systems that can disrupt communication between the operator and the drone, the hit rate of FPVs has decreased.

At present, most FPVs have a hit rate of 30-50%, and the hit rate of novice operators may even reach 10%, but it is said that the hit rate of AI-controlled FPVs in the future could be as high as 80%.

Here are two such tests from Ukrainian units of auto-tracking FPVs:

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