More than 18 months have passed since the launch of Russia's Special Military Operation (SMO), whose stated goals are:
- ensure the security of the Donbass region
- demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine
- and guarantee its neutral status in perpetuity
Since then, the collective West has done a number of things to help Russia and to harm itself. The anti-Russian sanctions, for example, made it possible to achieve many objectives: they flushed out a large part of the "fifth column" Russian and pushed her to leave the country; they encouraged many Western companies to cease their activities in Russia, by selling their shares to Russian companies at unbeatable prices; denial of access to the SWIFT banking network and speculative attacks against the Russian currency have isolated Russia from the West financially and put an end to the expatriation of profits and various forms of capital flight, curbing inflation in most sectors (except passenger vehicles); and the massive upheaval that sanctions, along with the Biden-ordered destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline, have wrought on global energy markets, has driven up Russia's export earnings to an entirely embarrassing extent.
So, Russia today is experiencing economic growth, has a lot of money to invest in infrastructure such as roads and bridges (including new high-speed rail lines), schools, kindergartens and hospitals, and so on, while the collective West, due to its self-inflicted damage, sinks deeper and deeper into recession/depression and, worse, is forced to deindustrialize due to much higher energy costs. In a final self-inflicted stab, Europe (Spain and Belgium, in particular, but through them most other countries) imports huge quantities of Russian liquefied natural gas, which is much more expensive, and therefore much more profitable than the gas pipeline it replaced.
In case you haven't been impressed by the cleverness of the West's efforts to isolate and weaken Russia economically, let's look at the military side of the conflict. The original plan called for Ukrainian forces to drive the Russians from their territories, reasserting control over the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk and retaking Crimea, which had become a Russian region in 2014. As a reward for his courage, the Ukraine would be allowed to join NATO and the EU and live happily ever after - just like other EU countries facing depopulation and impoverishment, such as Romania or Bulgaria (but you weren't supposed to say that out loud). Meanwhile, Russian dictator Putin's permanent loss of face would undermine his authority,
Phase I of this plan was to consist of a Ukrainian blitzkrieg launched against Donetsk, which was adequately defended by its volunteer defense force, which included a number of Russian volunteers from across the border, but which was not not equipped to face such an onslaught. The Ukrainian military spent several years arming and training for this event, which was scheduled to launch in March 2022. But just two weeks before the not-so-secret launch date, Putin suddenly launched the WHO and all those best-laid plans went up in smoke.
After a whirlwind tour of the regions of Ukraine, during which we discovered that a good part of the population had been conditioned, over the last 30 years, to hate Russia and everything Russian (while most of them were Russians themselves and speak Russian). This made them poor candidates for future Russian citizenship. It was also discovered that the Ukrainian government was unwilling to surrender. The Russians therefore sought to avoid further bloodshed and make peace with the Ukrainian government. They negotiated a draft peace deal, voluntarily withdrawing their forces from the kyiv region as a sign of good faith. In response, the Ukrainians refused to accept the agreement negotiated by their representatives… and resumed fighting.
Meanwhile, all formerly Ukrainian regions – not only Donetsk and Lugansk, but also Zaporozhye and Kherson – turned out to be very eager to secede from Ukraine and join Russia, of which they had been a part since they had been populated and developed. They held referendums to ratify the decision, which was subsequently enshrined in the Russian constitution, despite the fact that parts of what is now sovereign Russian territory are temporarily occupied by Ukrainian forces.
In the summer of 2023, we witnessed the spectacular and fabulously costly failure of the Ukrainian " counter-offensive" – their failed attempt to recapture their then totally alienated regions, which resulted in several hundred thousand of casualties on the Ukrainian side, a large quantity of armored vehicles and other weaponry, both remnants of the Soviet era and weapons donated by the West, which explode [ on the battlefield under the blows of the Russian artillery , and no territory gained.
Ukrainians are now forced to conscript the sick, the lame and the old, the cowards and the mad, with most able-bodied men having done their best to flee the country. Those they manage to enlist are poorly trained, poorly equipped and unwilling to fight. They are sent into combat after being drugged with methamphetamine, a recipe supplied by the Americans and produced locally, but many of them don't want to fight anyway and do their best to surrender.
In two months, Ukrainian forces were unable to gain any territory. In fact, they failed to even advance to the first of Russia's three lines of defense. The Russians, meanwhile, have somehow regained control of some of the territory they left when they regrouped in a defensive position and began entrenching themselves almost a year ago. If things continue as before, the Russians could very easily retake Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, after which there will be nothing but open steppe all the way to the Dnieper River, where, during the winter, everything that is alive shines in infrared like a candle in the dark, making it quite easy to target.
And now here is some truly astonishing news: some people in the West, including Americans, are starting to think that the Ukrainians are not going to win over Russia! What ? Didn't the Ukrainians receive a large number of semi-obsolete weapons, relatively useless training and, in total, some $150 billion in support? Why wouldn't that be enough to overthrow " a gas station disguised as a country" (John McCain) whose " economy is in tatters" (Barack Obama)? Of course, much of that money ended up in the coffers of Biden's crime syndicate, fattening everyone's palms along the way, and many of those guns were traded on the black market, so Mexican drug cartels now have anti-tank and anti-aircraft capabilities (thanks Joe Biden!). But the Ukrainians were told to attack, and they attacked, again and again, and they died en masse and… nothing? It's really embarrassing.
Faced with this massive loss of face, the Europeans, whom the Americans dragged along the side road to the slaughterhouse, where they made them suffer completely abnormal things, and who now act for the most part in a manner confused and looking at their feet while the Americans themselves remain mostly in complete denial, constantly repeating the mantra " We will support Ukraine for as long as it takes." Needed for what? The senseless death of every Ukrainian? As Mike Tyson said, " Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.". Well, everyone just got that famous punch. America's plan for Ukraine has failed on every level and Americans are being beaten every day that this armed conflict continues. Yet they persist... There must be a medical reason... Alzheimer's disease, perhaps?
Other voices are being raised to suggest various things, but I have yet to read or hear a single one express what should be done to end the conflict. Instead we have a bit of cacophony. With a little effort, we can separate it into several scenarios. I don't like scenarios; the word smacks of screenplay , theater and other works of fiction and fantasy. In a play, an actor can die on stage, come back to life in time for the curtain to rise, and start again the next night; In life, you only die once. History is not a play, it is destiny, and not knowing it in advance changes nothing. View the future as a set of " scenarios", is to obscure the fact that it escapes our control. However, for the sake of discussion, let's call them scenarios and examine them one at a time.
The amusing and friendly Tucker Carlson, formerly of Fox News and now a free agent, opined that we were heading toward World War III. Tucker is a journalist; journalists repeat what they hear from non-journalists (that's their job); and that's what Tucker recently heard from Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister, whom he interviewed. In turn, Orbán spoke about World War III in an attempt to attract the attention of other Western leaders, with whom he makes less and less common cause.
Ukraine, as Tucker himself pointed out, is not of vital interest to the United States. She was part of a brilliant plan to dismember, swallow and devour Russia, but since that plan is now in tatters, why not just forget about it and go back to the drawing board? Still, Tucker isn't the only one talking about World War III - there's also retired Colonel Douglas McGregor and others seeking public attention, so let's make World War III l 'one of the scenarios.
The problem with World War III is finding someone who wants to start it. Russia certainly doesn't want that, and neither does anyone else. To start World War III, you need two things: to have control of strategic nuclear weapons and to be suicidal. It turns out that these two elements are disjointed: no one can physically control nuclear arsenals without having passed a rudimentary psychological examination. Being suicidal is an exclusion criterion.
But suppose old Joe Biden, in a fit of senile rage, decides to call it a day and demands that the nuclear " balloon" be brought to the Oval Office because he wants to launch a preemptive nuclear first strike against Russia, the China, the DPRK and everyone else on the target list. What he would probably get instead is a nurse with a pill in a plastic cup and a glass of water, and by the time he gets them he would have forgotten what he asked for, would have took the pill and dozed off.
Or suppose desperate neoconservatives conspire to detonate a tactical nuclear bomb somewhere in Ukraine and attempt to blame it on Russia, false flag attacks being their specialty. Russia would investigate, draw its own conclusions, communicate them to the whole world, except the West (which no longer believes any of the lies the West regularly spreads), and that would be it, except a humanitarian and political catastrophe of great magnitude.
Or suppose this same group of neocons conspires to detonate a tactical nuclear bomb somewhere in Russia. In this case, Russia would demand that the Americans turn over their heads, or else! And since Russia now has the weapons necessary to destroy the American economy using conventional weapons from a safe distance, while the United States has no such capability, the Americans would quietly comply with this requirement.
In summary, it is very difficult to push people to suicide if they are not suicidal to begin with. A powerful instinct is at work.
Then we have the venerable American political scientist John Mearsheimer and his North Korean plan for Ukraine. Mearsheimer proposes freezing the conflict in perpetuity along the current front line, as is the case between the DPRK and South Korea. The Russian part of the former Ukraine would remain Russian and the Ukrainian part would become an American protectorate, join NATO and host American military bases – if we continue the Korea analogy.
This plan is somewhat admirable: it would end the bloodshed; he would give the Russians what Mearsheimer thinks they want; and it would greatly please the American military-industrial-congressional complex by giving it another permanent overseas playground on which to waste public funds while playing world leader. More importantly, it would allow the Americans to save face: they failed to destroy Russia, but at least they would get a few military bases right next to it where they could wait and plot. Rump Ukraine will never become a high-tech industrial center like South Korea; it is more likely to become like Kosovo – a lawless ethnic mafia state with a huge US military base as its centerpiece. I suppose they could even build a naval base in Odessa or Nikolaev. Let's include Mearsheimer's dream in the second scenario.
The problem with this scenario is that this is not what the Russians want. Why agree to a ceasefire when you are about to win? And why accept an American military presence on your borders if your stated goal is to ensure that Ukraine is demilitarized, denazified, and neutralized? Mearsheimer's plan may sound good in theory, but its practical merits are nil.
Finally, we have the pacifists: presidential candidates Donald J. Trump, Robert Kennedy Jr. and Vivek Ramaswami. Trump and Kennedy say they want a peaceful, friendly relationship with Russia, but wisely refuse to say how they will achieve it. Trump did say he would immediately end the Ukrainian conflict, but again, he did not specify under what conditions. Ramaswami, on the other hand, said something so stupid that some very serious Russian officials still laugh about it: he said he would allow Russia to keep its former Ukrainian territories (temporarily) if, in return, it stopped cooperating militarily with China!
First of all, to be able to allow something, you must also be able to prohibit it. That's absolutely not the case here, and young, stupid Vivek is basically saying that he would allow the sun to shine if it allowed the moon to orbit another planet. The fact remains that peace with Russia is a great idea, and that is why we consider it as the third scenario.
But that's about all we can do, since, aside from Vivek's idiotic idea, we can only guess what's on offer, but in my opinion it's still very stupid. " Sure, we spent nearly a decade arming, training, and controlling a band of murderous Nazis who killed and terrorized your people, but now that you've prevailed, let's put the past in the past..." What is -what is this madness? Is this a veiled blood money offer? If so, how much? Until the Russians hear a high enough number (payable in gold, since they no longer like US dollars), there won't be much to discuss.
As for me, I am in favor of a fourth scenario, for which I have chosen the fairly transparent code name "Operation Afghanistan 2.0". This is a scenario in which the Americans get rid of Ukraine, dump it, and tell it that what's left of its hopelessly screwed country is up to the Russians and Europeans to sort out. The Europeans would immediately start visually examining their shoes while chatting amicably about the weather, which would leave the Russians alone.
But the United States has every reason to cut its losses in Ukraine. The Ukrainians – those in power – were able to manipulate the United States into giving them ridiculous amounts of money and weapons, which they mainly used to enrich themselves while dropping recruits on the Russian defense lines, buying mansions in Switzerland and Miami, piling billions into offshore accounts and so on, because they had control over Joe Biden and his criminal organization. But now that the evidence of Joe Biden's criminality is already available and gradually being made public, their ability to blackmail him is gone and it is time to pull the rug out from under them.
My plan is as brilliant as it is simple: it involves doing nothing at all. There are no troops to repatriate, no $80 billion worth of military equipment to (not) be flown back to the United States, or even a large group of Afghan servants to whom the promised American citizenship in exchange for their services and must be shamefully abandoned. It's a perfectly feasible plan because it requires U.S. officials to do absolutely nothing—a task I'm sure they can handle. It is perfectly in line with my favorite Zen principle, Wúwèi (无为 / 無爲) – action through inaction.
This inaction would have certain consequences that we can try to outline. First, the Ukrainian army would disband, with most soldiers simply changing into civilian uniforms and going home, with no one to stop them. Second, Russian military police would spread across the Ukrainian landscape, rounding up Ukrainian war criminals who have been subject to criminal proceedings in Russia, gradually moving from east to west. Perhaps Russia would temporarily lift its moratorium on capital punishment just for them.
Then, once the nationalists/war criminals have been driven far enough west, Russia will hold referendums in the various regions on joining Russia. (Ukrainians were part of Russia from 1654 to 1917, then part of the USSR from 1922 until its dissolution). Most Ukrainians are not fooled and, once the propaganda wears off, they will vote with their hands and feet to join Russia and enjoy all the benefits of Russian citizenship. I guess Russia would also accept Transnistria (a Russian part of Moldova) and Gagauzia (because Gagauz people like Russians and don't like being part of Moldova).
Russia's European neighbors would then be invited to feast on the few remaining western regions that were never part of Russia and only joined the USSR after the end of World War II. I imagine that we would have to sign a treaty - let's say the Treaty of Pinsk, at a conference organized by Belarus - which would equitably divide this western part of the former Ukraine between the neighboring countries of Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland.
A very small part would remain as an ethnic theme park for the remaining Ukrainian nationalists, if there are any left, with whitewashed, straw-roofed mud huts, portly men with red noses and shaved heads. Except for one front, spectacularly fat and buxom women in flowered dresses and pigs wallowing in mud puddles everywhere. They would sell smoked pork fat and plum vodka at roadside stands, sing sweet songs about a cranberry bush, and secretly plan to torture and horribly kill anyone who wouldn't like them, but they would never be sober enough to take action.
